Sunday, November 10, 2024

Trump supposedly warns Russia to not escalate in Ukraine. What will Trump's policy on Russia and Ukraine?

 

President Elect Trump. Fox News/Getty.

President elect Donald Trump's team has not confirmed or denied reports that Trump warned Russian President Vladimir Putin to not escalate in Ukraine. Fox News. Trump talked to Vladimir Putin along with many other world leaders after winning the election. A report said that Trump also said that he wanted a resolution to the war in Ukraine and that peace should be the goal in Europe. Trump had also called the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, which also included tech mogul Elon Musk. Trump supposedly said that he would continue to support Zelensky, though he has been very critical of unlimited support Ukraine has received. 

My Comment:

I'm skeptical of both reports on the calls Trump made with Putin and Zelensky. It's possible both reports are true, but I don't know how the reporters had info on what these calls were about. If they are legit it means that either Trump released them on purpose or there is a leaker in Trump's orbit. The 2nd possibility is certainly possible. 

Though Trump resolving the war in Ukraine was a major reason I voted for him, I have always thought that it was going to be an extreme challenge, and one that even Trump might not be able to fix. First of all, Biden absolutely screwed everything up. He angered Putin to the point that he launched the war in the first place and I doubt Putin is going to trust anything Trump does, as it would not be difficult for whoever comes after Trump, be they Republican or Democrat, to undo any deal made with him. 

Indeed, Biden is still trying to screw things up for Trump right now. He's sending Ukraine millions in aid before Trump can take the oath of office. And, lost in all the election news, he's allowing American "contractors" (mercenaries) to fight openly in Ukraine for the first time. In short, he's escalating the war even more. And it's a major problem for Trump as he has always operated on the carrot and stick principle. Biden has left almost nothing for Trump to escalate too, what can he threaten? Nuclear war? That's about the only option left for escalation, so I don't think it will happen. It's why I am skeptical of this report, I think Trump realizes his position isn't great here. 

And I doubt Putin will want to stop the war. He's winning it. Ukraine has not been able to keep up with the recruitment demands and are losing ground across the front. Russia has the advantage in weapons and manpower and have been, supposedly, reinforced by troops from North Korea (a report I am still skeptical of). Indeed, there's a decent chance that things go so bad for Ukraine that there won't be a point in negotiating anymore. Of course in that case, Trump might just be able to cut Ukraine loose, but we will have to wait and see. 

Though this post has been gloomy, there is some hope. After all, Trump is uniquely positioned to make a deal in a way that Joe Biden (or Kamala Harris) never could. Trump has a good working relationship with both Zelensky and Putin, which is a rare thing. And Trump's defining characteristic is that he prides himself on making deals. Unlike Biden, I think that Trump will make an effort to solve the war once and for all. 

Indeed, the solution that I have seen from the Trump campaign seems like a viable one. Russia keeps the land they have captured, Ukraine is forbidden from joining NATO, and Europe would be in charge of maintaining a massive DMZ that would ensure there would be no insurgency campaign against Russia. It's not a bad deal and could end up working. And if anyone can pull it off, it's Donald Trump. 

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