Syrian rebels breach the largest city in Syria, Aleppo, in a shocking offensive.

 

Syrian rebels outside of Aleppo. AP. 

Syrian rebels have launched a major offensive in Northern Syria and have managed to enter Aleppo, Syria's largest city. AP. Aleppo has remained peaceful since 2016 when the regime recaptured the city after a brutal fight. But this new attack swept through northern villages and has now entered the city facing limited resistance. Syrian forces did not put up much of a fight and some regime forces melted away under the pressure of the attack. The rebels are mostly from the Hayat Tahir al-Sham, HTS, which used to be known as al-Nusra Front. They are Islamic terrorists. The offensive comes as Syria's two major allies are distracted by wars of their own. Hezbollah and Israel were fighting before a 60 day cease fire was signed earlier this week and Russia has Ukraine to deal with as well. 

My Comment:

Disturbing news out of Syria. This attack comes from HTS, which was the notorious al-Nusra Front before they changed their name. Al-Nusra was one of the worst groups in the Syrian Civil War, only eclipsed by ISIS, and their reemergence as a major force in Syria is not a good thing. They were at one point al-Qaeda's proxy army in Syria, though given al-Qaeda's current irrelevance that's probably no longer the case. 

It's fairly shocking how quickly the Syrians are folding. I'm not sure why either. It's possible that the Syrian forces sent to Aleppo were lower quality and that they had no idea this attack was coming. The area was at peace since 2016 and there hadn't really been all that many indications that an attack was coming. Still, Syria has a hardened and professional army, to see them fold like this is not a good sign for them. 

Syria is in a difficult position too, their allies are distracted. Hezbollah was one of the biggest groups fighting for Syria but they obviously have their own problems. Though a cease-fire has been signed between Hezbollah and Israel, they are certainly not in any condition to help Syria right now given how much of their leadership is dead. I don't see them being much of a help in this current offensive. 

Russia, too, has their own problems as they are currently fighting a massive war in Ukraine. But unlike Hezbollah I think they will be able to spare some forces to help Syria. After all, they have a major navy base in Tartus and that means they have strategic concerns in the country. I do believe they are already launching airstrikes and I wouldn't be surprised if they send a limited deployment of troops and/or mercenaries to help fight HTS. 

Speaking of Russia, I would not be surprised that if this wasn't actually about them. Both the CIA and Turkey have an interest in overthrowing the Syrian regime and they don't particularly care if they have to fund and arm a terror group like HTS to do so. The naval base in Tartus is the CIA's goal as they have never liked the fact that Russia has a base in the Mediterranean. And any pressure they can put on Russia outside if Ukraine will possibly help Ukraine hang on a bit longer. 

What will happen next? Well, either the Syrian troops will gain a backbone (with help from the Russians) or HTS is going to capture Aleppo. If they do I expect it to be very bad for the people there. Al-Nusra was never as brutal as ISIS was but they aren't exactly nice people and I would expect some murders and killings if they take over the city... I do hope that the Syrians find a way to blunt this offensive and sooner rather than later...