Russia is taking Ukraine's territory at a rate not seen since the start of the war...

 

Trees on fire in the town of Kurakhove. Reuters. 

Russia has accelerated their rate of advance in Ukraine at a rate not seen since the start of the war. Reuters. Russia took 91 square miles of territory this week alone, which is a record for 2024. In November they have already taken between 232 and 257 square miles. Most of the advances are in the Donbass region, which is a war goal for the Russians. Russia now controls 18% of pre-war, pre-Crimea annexation, including 80% of Donbas and 70% of both Zaporizhzhia and Kherson and 3% of the Kharkov region. Russia is also pushing Ukraine out of the Kursk incursion. Ukraine admits that the situation in eastern Ukraine is the worst it has ever been and blames the losses on a lack of manpower due to a lack of supplies. 

My Comment:

If you have been paying attention to the war at all, none of this is surprising. Russia has been effective in destroying Ukrainian units and has found a few strategies that have worked for them. And it's leading to major advances and a lot of territory being lost. 

What are those strategies? The greatly expanded use of glide bombs, like the KAB series of smart weapons, has worked very well at breaking Ukraine's defensive positions. These bombs are extremely powerful and can take out all but the most formidable fortifications. The bombs, along with artillery and drones, are extremely effective at destroying Ukrainian positions and destroy morale. Often when Russia does advance it's because the Ukrainians have withdrawn. 

The other new tactic is the use of motorcycles for cavalry attacks. Motorcycles are a lot more difficult to target by drones than armored vehicles and if they do hit they only takeout a man or two at most, while an APC hit can take out a whole squad plus the crew of the vehicle. The bikes are also low maintenance and can allow the Russians to get far behind enemy lines to attack the rear areas of the Ukrainians. 

And Russia has continued to use the "cauldron" tactic to their great success. Ukraine has had a "hold onto ground at all cost" view for the entire war and it means that Russia is able to often surround the enemy on three sides and covering the main supply lines with artillery. Ukraine keeps falling for this trap again and again and it has cost them huge numbers of troops. Indeed, the Kursk incursion has turned into a huge cauldron that is chewing up their best units for little reason. 

The other major problem for the Ukrainians is they simply don't have the troops. They have mostly ran out of the older men they have used but they still haven't drafted their young, under 21 year old, men. But even if they do start drafting them, the problem is that they can't really train them anymore. They just send folks to the front line as replacement and from what I understand they are dangerously untrained, to the point they can do little but hold the line.  

The Zelensky government is blaming a lack of supplies, but the problem is that there isn't much left to give, which is a reason why countries have been authorizing the use of longer range weapons, like the ATACMS and Storm Shadow/SCALP, missiles. And even those are being depleted at an alarming rate. But it's not just missiles, it's artillery shells, vehicles, planes and anti-air weapons as well. There just isn't enough weapons to go around, though Russia isn't having the same problems. 

As for the rumors that North Korea is fighting in the Kursk pocket, I have seen zero evidence. You would have thought that Ukraine would have been able to capture a few North Korean solders by now if they were really fighting there. At the very least there would be video or pictures of dead North Koreans, but I have found nothing. 

Finally, the real problem is the high tensions caused by Biden's authorization of using long range missiles on Ukraine. Those weapons have not accomplished much, but lead to a fairly terrifying use of a new weapon by Russia. The fear is that Ukraine will do even more desperate things as they suffer battlefield, leading to a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia...