Joe Biden authorizes strikes in Russia with US ATACMS missiles, raising major fears of World War III.

 

File photo of an ATACMS missile launch. BBC/US Military photo. 

Joe Biden has authorized strikes within Russia proper with US ATACMS missiles, raising fears of World War III. BBC. Vladimir Putin has warned that using those missiles, which cannot be operated by anything other than NATO troops, would be direct participation in the Ukraine War. The ATACMS will be used to support the Kursk incursion, which is not going well for Ukraine. The decision has been made due to supposed deployments of North Korean troops in the region. France and the UK have also said they will allow Ukraine to use their Storm Shadow missiles as well. Ukraine has not been doing well in the war and has been blaming the US and NATO for not providing enough aid. 

My Comment:

This is an act of utter insanity from the outgoing Biden administration. This will accomplish nothing but at the same time risks a 3rd world war. Putin has said for a long time that the use of these territories would be a valid casus belli for a war between Russia and NATO. 

Why? Because these missiles cannot be used without NATO support. Ukraine can launch the missiles, but that's it, they can't actually aim them. These weapons use satellite GPS and have to programed by the US (and France/UK for the storm shadows). Doing so is actively participating on an attack on Russian soil, which means that Russia would have every right to declare on NATO if they chose to do so. 

And the reason why they are doing this? Because North Koreans are supposedly fighting in the Kursk incursion. I still haven't seen any evidence that the North Koreans are actually fighting, let alone have been deployed to the area. The only thing I have heard is that North Korean troops are probably firing their missiles that they donated to Russia, but even that hasn't really been confirmed. So this whole thing might not have any justification at all. 

If there is any good news about this it's the fact that these missiles will not have much impact on the battlefield at all. Russia has extremely good air defenses and that was clear when the Storm Shadows and ATACMS debuted to little actual effect. Plus, it's not like there are that many left, the UK Storm Shadows have already been moved up and France doesn't have too many of them to give either. Same with the ATACMS, we just don't have the stockpiles of weapons to actually overcome Russia's air defenses. And Russia has finally been smart and greatly hardened their strategic sites in the region.

Another factor that could lead to cooler heads prevailing is the fact that Ukraine is pretty obviously losing the war. The Kursk incursion, where all this drama is focused on, is not going their way at all, despite sending in their best units and almost all of their remaining reserves. Russia has steadily pushed them back to the point where they don't control much territory anymore. And to accomplish this attack, Ukraine has had to pull back from other fronts, which has left those fronts on the border of collapse, with Russia making major gains. 

The real question is how Russia responds. My hope would be that cooler heads prevail. Though I don't think it is clear who would "win" a nuclear war, Russia has the tech advantage at this point, the fact is that Russia appears to be led by rational actors and I can't see them launching nukes at this point. Nobody wins if everyone dies in nuclear hellfire, even if NATO is directly attacking Russia. And like I said, it's not like Ukraine is winning the war at this point. 

Still, giving Russia a valid casus belli for a nuclear war with NATO is beyond stupid. Why risk it at all for an adventure that has not only failed, it has only made Russia stronger? I don't think the chances of a nuclear war are high, but they are as high as they have been since the Cuban Missile Crisis or the Able Archer exercise that spooked the Soviets. Such a huge risk for basically zero gain. 

But the Democrats and deep state might think it's worth it because I see this as an effort to undermine the incoming Trump administration. This move probably won't start World War III (at least I hope it won't) but it will make it very hard for Trump to negotiate with Putin. Why would Putin negotiate with people launching missiles at US territory? Trump's effort to end the war will now probably fail and Trump will go down as the one that "lost" Ukraine despite the fact that the war wasn't ever winnable in the first place. I have said for awhile that Trump finding a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine war was probably his biggest challenge and I see this as an effort to set him up for failure. 

Of course nobody really knows what Trump will do on Ukraine. If anyone on earth can pull off a deal in Ukraine it would be Trump given his good relationship with both Zelensky and Putin. And he does have quite a few advisors that are against the war and he's been very skeptical himself. But Trump has been put in a very difficult position and there are still a lot of war hawks in his party. My hope is that he will just cut the Ukrainians loose if it's clear that they are losing, but who knows what kind of info he could be getting. The Deep State is lying about Ukraine to the point it's possible the powers that be actually think Ukraine has a chance to win the war...