Russia debuts new ballistic missile in strike on Ukraine as a clear warning to the Biden Administration...

 

A burning building in Dnipro. BBC/Ukraine Military photo. 

Russia has fired a new ballistic missile in a strike in Ukraine in the city of Dnipro, sending a clear warning to the Biden Administration. BBC. Though Ukraine initially identified the weapon as an ICBM, it now appears that it is a new hypersonic intermediate range ballistic missile, which are powerful as ICBM's but have considerably less range. The west was informed of the strike via the Nuclear Risk Reduction channels. The new weapon is powerful, and Vladimir Putin said that they are impossible to intercept, but Western officials say they do not exist in numbers that would greatly affect the war. The attack comes after the Biden administration authorized the use of guided missiles including American ATACMS and British and French Storm Shadows/Scalps against targets in Russia, which essentially made NATO an active combatant. 

Russia launched a new experimental ballistic missile with multiple warheads, hitting a major Ukrainian city. Putin said the unprecedented attack was in response to U.S. and British missiles used against its forces. @IanPannell has details. https://t.co/wjzwJcHX65 pic.twitter.com/ayaiHrMwDM

— World News Tonight (@ABCWorldNews) November 22, 2024

My Comment:

This is a pretty textbook definition of blowback. Biden made the baffling decision to allow Ukraine to attack Russia with US weapons, a de facto declaration of war against Russia. This is what happens when you to do that. 

The actual effects of this strike seem to be fairly limited. One missile strike is nothing in a war that has hundreds every day, even if this one was fairly impressive. The actual purpose was a message. Russia has high tech weapons that the United States and NATO aren't going to be able to counter and our current actions are unacceptable to the Putin administration. 

It's important to note that this is a new weapon. It's an intermediate range weapon, not intercontinental, but it is a MIRV, a single missile loaded with multiple warheads. Had this new weapon been loaded with nukes Dnipro wouldn't be there anymore. It's not the first time a ballistic missile has been used in combat but it might be the first time an IRMB has been. And I think for sure it's the first time a MIRV has been used in combat. 

It's also very important to note that the only reason we are still breathing is that Russia used the hotline to warn NATO that a launch was happening. Had they not then that probably would have been it. There would have been no way to tell if the missile had nuclear weapons on it or not. And that could have led to World War III.

It makes me wonder how in control the situation actually is. The optimistic scenario is that both sides view this as a face saving measure for both sides. Biden was losing the war so he allowed these strikes and Russia responded to the escalation with one of his own, but one unlikely to lead to a shooting war. After all the ATACMS and Storm Shadow strikes have been completely ineffective, are largely symbolic in nature, and can only continue for a short period of time due to a extreme lack of supplies. 

The pessimistic scenario is that the Biden administration has no idea what they are doing and that this counter-escalation was unexpected blowback to what they did. They thought there was going to be no meaningful blow back and it was only the restraint of the Putin administration and the fact that Biden is going to be gone in a couple of months that stopped a major war from breaking out. 

I think the 2nd scenario is more likely than the first. Biden does not strike me as someone who is capable of much of anything at this point and his VP is an empty suit who is on vacation in Hawaii. I am guessing some moron in the Pentagon thought up the ATACMS authorization while Biden authorized it without even knowing what he was doing. And this is the blow back from that. 

If there is any good news at all it's that Biden won't be in power much longer. It's about two months before Trump gets sworn in and once that happens, I think he will do what he can to ratchet down tensions. Ending the authorization to strike Russia proper with long range weapons would be the logical first step. 

The fear is that the tit for tat escalation treadmill we are on right now will just continue. Two months is a long time and a lot can go wrong between now and then. I don't think Putin will do anything stupid. But I also don't trust the Biden admin to not screw up. It's even possible they would deliberately start a nuclear war. I have zero faith in them and the sooner they are out of power the better it will be...