Governor Tim Walz and Kamala Harris. New York Post.
As you are certainly aware Kamala Harris has picked Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. The pick is rather baffling to me, there seems to be little advantage of picking Walz. Indeed, the smart money was on Josh Shapiro, the popular governor of critical swing state Pennsylvania. Instead, they have gone with Walz and it seems like an obvious an massive mistake.
Governor Shapiro is a big part of it. The fate of the election may well depend on Pennsylvania. Given the pre-Harris polling numbers, which didn't have the kind of push polls that are propping up Harris, she would need to win that state for sure to even have a chance, along with Michigan and Wisconsin. Shapiro would have helped a lot to the point where I would think that Harris might even have a decent chance of winning the state. She's probably still lose, but it would be a lot closer.
But they went with Walz instead, a man that has a lot of serious downsides and doesn't help win any state other than Minnesota. We will talk more about that in a bit, but the question remains, why not pick Shapiro? Well, it's pretty clear that it's because of antisemitism. The far left, pro-Hamas people absolutely hate Walz because he is a Jew and volunteered to work with the IDF. The fact that the pro-Hamas people are ecstatic with this pick proves that they have a lot of sway and the Democrats are dramatically more afraid of them then they are losing to Donald Trump.
This will absolutely hurt their level of support from pro-Israel people and Jews themselves if the Trump campaign can make it stick. Given how all-in they are on the attack I am guessing it will hit and might even keep states with large numbers of Jewish people, like New York and New Jersey in play. Sure, some Muslims in Minnesota and Michigan might come on board but I think the Democrats obviously lose more than they gain here.
Walz himself is an incredibly damaged candidate. He started as a fairly moderate congressman but went all-in on the far left after he got elected. There are some huge controversies with Walz. The New York Post summarizes how far left he is and many of his major controversies as Governor of Minnesota. In short, he's far to the left of most Americans on transgender issues, immigration, crime and, in a major blow to the Midwesterners he is supposed to appeal to, gun rights. The Trump campaign is already declaring this the most far-left ticket in the history of the Democratic Party and it's pretty impossible to argue it.
Walz is also extremely vulnerable due to his absolutely shameful response to the George Floyd riots. Walz did almost nothing to stop the riots that started in the Twin Cities after Floyd died and it's fair to give him a major amount of blame for the ensuring chaos that not only destroyed the Twin Cities, but caused massive damage across the country in 2020.
Finally, Walz is going to be despised by a lot of veterans due to the fact that he shirked his duty to deploy to Iraq. Walz was a Sergeant Major that was going to be deployed to Iraq in 2005 but he resigned to run for congress instead. A lot of the people that served with him back then never forgave him for that, including the Sergeant Major that replaced him, Thomas Behrends. The issue was relevant back when Walz ran for Governor and it is going to be a lot more relevant now, especially in the swing states in the South where military tradition is huge.
Walz also had a DWI when he was younger. This, somewhat surprisingly, will probably not hurt him in the Midwest. I live in Wisconsin and if I judged everyone that got a drunk driving charge I'd have to give up on the state. And to be fair, he turned his life around afterwards. But I do think there is going to be a large number of voters that are going to be disgusted with his conviction as many people have lost family members and loved ones to drunk drivers.
So why pick Walz, other than the Josh Shapiro anti-Semitism issue? It's generally accepted that the VP pick is largely there to try secure the home state of the pick. If that's the case here, this is terrible news for the Democrats as Minnesota has gone blue since Richard Nixon won the state in 1972. Given that polling for Minnesota was often in favor of Trump, I am guessing they are trying to avoid a bloodbath in 2024 and know they are going to lose in 2024.
As for the election, I think this will absolutely hurt the Democrats in 2024, once the attacks on Walz intensify. Indeed, the Republicans have already used Walz and his "weird" attack as a useful attack line on him and Kamal Harris. Given how trans ideology is so unpopular, it allowed a Republican to win in Virginia and destroyed Bud Light completely, I think this will hit and hit hard.
Tim Walz is a weird radical liberal.
— MAGA War Room (@MAGAIncWarRoom) August 6, 2024
What could be weirder than signing a bill requiring schools to stock tampons in boys' bathrooms?
Or weirder than signing legislation allowing minors to receive sex change operations? pic.twitter.com/2kqTQ9CzfT
I still think that the election is almost certainly going to go for Trump. Even before Biden beclowned himself at the debate and then dropped out, Donald Trump was beating him on policy alone. Harris has even more unpopular policies than Biden and has doubled down on it with this pick. And she has zero charisma herself and will sooner or later put her foot in her mouth. And that's ignoring the fact of the developing stories of the crashing economy and potential war with Iran over Israel (which will burn the bridges with the pro-Hamas faction she just tried to mend). Ignore the push polling, that's more to convince Democrats themselves that they have a chance than an actual chance of victory. Trump will win unless there is some kind of major black swan event, like an assassination or something, that goes the way of the Democrats. And even that seems unlikely.
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