Russia is succeeding in eastern Ukraine despite Kursk incursion.

 

A border post in Russia. New York Times

Russia is succeeding in Eastern Ukraine despite the Kursk incursion into Russia itself. New York Times. Ukraine launched the offensive into Russian territory two weeks ago. Though they had initial success, the offensive has bogged down as Russia has send reinforcements into the area. They have also lost more pieces of valuable military equipment than the Russians. The hope that the offensive would relieve pressure in the Donetsk Front has not materialized. Russia is closing in on the critical transportation hub of Pokrovsk. The Russians have artillery control over the city of 40,000 people and have reached the final defensive line of the city. Northeast of Pokrovsk, Russia has mostly captured the city of Nui York, also known as New York, and have taken Toresk. Those towns are the gateway to Kostiantynivka, another critical hub. 

My Comment:

I haven't said much about the Kursk incursion largely because I couldn't believe how stupid the Ukrainians were to try it. Yes, they did have some success against the Russians in the region, largely because they attacked border conscripts and achieved surprise. But the attack has bogged down and the Ukrainians risk losing their best troops for little gain. 

And now we are seeing the cost. The troops that are in Russia right now would have been much better used as a reserve against the attacks in the Donetsk region, which is in very serious trouble. The situation is worse than the New York Times admits as it's clear that Russia is going to create another major cauldron. Capturing Pokrovsk will cut off one of the major highways in the region and further cut off Kostiantynivka. It could also cut off Ukraine's army in the region and could cause a front line to collapse. 

So why is Russia continuing the offensive? Why didn't they pull troops away from the Donetsk Front to reinforce Kursk? Well, the problem is that Russia does not need to do so. Indeed, the Kursk incursion allows Russia to use their large conscript forces. They had been forbidden to deploy to Ukraine but now that they are defending Russia proper, they can and are being used. And they have given these conscripts a major motivation to actually fight since they are defending Russia itself. 

And it's not like things are going all that well in Kursk either. Russia was caught off guard, mostly because they didn't believe the intelligence they were getting (again, this was a really stupid plan). But the advance mostly stopped once reinforcement arrived and now the Ukrainians risk being caught in another cauldron. And it's not like they actually control all of the territory in Russia that they are claiming. Much of it is still contested and they are not going to be able to hold it long term.  

The real problem is the large number of weapons and troops being lost in the Kursk Front. The New York Times article talked about all the vehicles and weapons being lost, including irreplaceable anti-air batteries, but these were some of the best troops Ukraine had left and they are taking heavy casualties. Russia did at first when the initial conscripts were overrun, but they are now focusing on heavy airstrikes and drone attacks on these troops. 

It's also important to note that the Ukrainians have failed to accomplish their war target in this attack, the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant. They wanted to take the power plant to take it hostage so they could threaten Russia with nuclear disaster. That plan has failed as it seems like the Ukrainians are not going to get anywhere near the power plant. 

A lot of people are making the comparison to the Battle of the Bulge in World War II. Indeed, there are a lot of parallels. Just like the Nazis, the Ukrainians have already lost the war, but they still had enough power left to launch a desperate offensive. They really didn't have all that much to lose but the attack appears to have failed and will likely lead to a similar result as the Nazi offensive in World War II. 

Regardless, the individual battles don't mean much in the end. Ukraine is pretty much completely screwed, which is why they launched the desperate attack in the first place. Ukraine has lost almost all of their power generation and it would be trivial for Russia to end what's remaining. And given that winter is only a few months away, I doubt Ukraine can survive long term. If anything the Kursk losses will probably accelerate things...