Iran may declare themselves a nuclear power before the end of the year.

 

Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Fox News/Getty. 

Iran may declare themselves a nuclear power before the end of the year. Fox News. Experts say that Iran may take advantage of US weakness due to an uncertain election and the "lame duck" status of Joe Biden. The Biden administration said that Iran is on the brink of having enough material to make a nuclear weapon. They blamed the end of the controversial nuclear deal with Iran for the issue but  clarified that they have  not seen evidence that Iran has made a nuclear weapon yet. Iran could gain benefits from making a nuclear weapon even if they don't have an effective delivery system yet and it could act as a deterrence. 

My Comment:

Iran has been "two weeks" away from having a nuclear weapon for pretty much my entire life. In the past you could largely dismiss those accusations as it was clear that Iran was not close to having nukes and wouldn't be for some time. Have things changed now?

I am not sure. Part of me thinks that this is the same old neocon warmongering we have seen for years now. If you want a war with Iran, and you know many of the neocons do, the best way to do so is to say that Iran is weeks away from being a nuclear power. Given that it appears that a pro-war Biden but pro-Iran is going to be replaced by a pro-peace Trump but anti-Iran, I would not be surprised if they try and start a war to punish Biden for being pro-Iran while getting the war they want at the same time without Trump in the way to stop it.

On the other time, nuclear weapons aren't actually that hard to make. If the North Koreans can do it, as impoverished and isolated they are, Iran certainly can. From what I understand the real issue isn't the design of the weapon itself, it's gathering the nuclear materials. And Iran could indeed be getting close to doing so. 

It could also explain why Iran hasn't retaliated yet against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil. Everyone was expecting another massive missile/drone strike but what if their response is to test a nuclear weapon instead? Doing so would certainly infuriate the Israelis and would be an appropriate revenge. 

And there isn't going to be a better time to do it. Iran's enemies are not in a good position right now. Israel is bogged down in Gaza and has to contend with Hezbollah and the Houthis attacking them as well. Israel might not be able to respond like they could have in the past if Iran tests a nuke. 

And America? Forget it. Joe Biden is president right now and he's also been confirmed to be senile. He also has to consider that any response to Iran would alienate his far left Hamas supporters that are absolutely needed if Kamala Harris is going to have a chance. He might do that anyways, something tells me Biden is still bitter about being forced out of the race, but Iran might be willing to take the chance. And it's not like a war would be justified by Iran simply making, not using, a nuclear weapon. 

With all that  being said, even if Iran does get nukes it's not like they have a delivery system or the ability to mount a nuke on a warhead. The first part is easily fixed, but the 2nd requires trial and error and some nuclear testing. If Iran does declare themselves a nuclear power they will require time to be able to figure out how to use them, even if they get help from the Russians. That means that if Iran does get a nuke it will still be status quo ante for awhile while they work out the kinks. 

Still, it's hard to predict what Iran will do. Like I said it's very possible that this is just the neocons getting frisky again. I have also found that Iran is pretty hard to predict. I didn't think that Iran would launch their massive drone attack this April and I also thought that Iran would attack Israel for sure after the assassination of Haniyeh and so far they haven't. I honestly don't know what they are going to do next.