RFK Jr. plans to drop out of presidential race and endorse Donald Trump.

 

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The Guardian/Shutterstock.

RFK Jr. plans to drop his longshot independent presidential campaign and endorse Donald Trump. The Guardian. RFK said that he would hold an event about the future of the campaign in Phoenix Arizona, where Trump is also due to speak. Speculation that RFK was going to drop out increased after his VP candidate, Nicole Shanahan, said that the move was being considered because RFK was pulling more support from Donald Trump than Harris and that they didn't want Harris to win. The idea has been around for awhile after a leaked conversation between the two men floated the idea and a role for RFK Jr. in the Trump administration. Kennedy was one of the more relevant third party candidates in recent history but his campaign had several mistakes and missteps, most notably a bizarre story about him placing a dead bear cub in Central Park. 

My Comment:

Hilariously, Alex Jones scooped the mainstream media on this story. I saw this tweet yesterday and though it's Alex Jones he ended up being correct. What a world. 

BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: Sources Inside RFK Jr. Presidential Campaign Confirm He Will Drop Out Of Race Friday And Endorse Trump At An Event In Los Angeles That Same Day

Also— Alex Jones reveals RFK Jr. is in consideration for Attorney General and other Cabinet positions. pic.twitter.com/Pdjx9u7MUK

— Alex Jones (@RealAlexJones) August 21, 2024

With that nonsense out of the way, this is a coup for Donald Trump and his campaign. RFK Jr. was not as popular as he was earlier in the race, he was still drawing between 2 and 10% of the electorate in recent polls. Him dropping out and endorsing Trump should mean that most of those voters, not all, go to Trump, which would probably seal the race for Donald Trump. It's absolutely worth it for Trump to get this endorsement no matter what the cost was. 

I am guessing the cost was a place for both RFK Jr. and his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, in the Trump administration. I have heard that they are considering him as his CIA director, which would be interesting to say the least. As someone that thinks that the CIA is out of control having someone that blames the CIA for his father's assassination, it's actually a brilliant idea. That's a low cost for the votes that RFK Jr. can bring in. 

I think this is mostly about revenge for RFK Jr. The Trump campaign occasionally clashed with RFK but the real combat for him was with the Biden and Harris campaigns. RFK is still bitter that he wasn't even given a chance to run in the race for the Democratic nomination despite being essentially royalty in the party. And they fought his independent campaign the entire way even after it was clear that he was hurting Trump more than Harris. If they had been smart the Democrats would have done whatever they could to get him on their side. They didn't and now it will cost them.

Why was RFK Jr. taking more votes away from Trump than Harris? Much of RFK's support was coming from "double haters", people that disliked both Trump and Biden. When Biden was forced out of the race in a palace coup, a decent number of double haters left. The ones that remains are probably people that can be convinced to vote for Trump as if they were willing to support Harris they would already be doing so. Some of those folks will indeed stay home or vote for a different third party candidate but I am guessing most of them will go for Trump. 

The timing of this is not a coincidence either. It's going to erase any bump from the DNC, which ends tomorrow, for Kamala Harris. The announcement will be on Friday and it will overshadow news from the DNC. Indeed, it's what's everyone is talking about now even though the DNC is happening right now. Of course, given how badly the DNC appears to be going for Harris, perhaps that isn't the best thing either, but either way, I don't see there being a convention bump for Harris this year, even ignoring that. 

Of course, I still say that Trump would beat Harris even without the endorsement of RFK Jr, which is good as it's not set in stone yet. Harris is a bad candidate and outside of a few outlying polls, she isn't anywhere near where she needs to be to beat Trump. An one or two point lead in the national polls is not going to be enough, Hillary was up by five points and lost while Biden was up by six and had to use every dirty trick in the book to get over the edge. The RFK Jr. endorsement should seal things up for Trump unless something extraordinary, diabolical or ridiculous happens...