The United States is expected to announce tomorrow the formation of Operation Prosperity Guardian, and effort to protect shipping from Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden off the shores of Yemen. The Guardian. Five big shipping companies have resolved to avoid the area after multiple incidents of drone, missile and gunman attacks targeting shipping in the region. Ships are routing through the Mediterranean and around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa to avoid the attacks. It is thought that several Middle Eastern partners have joined the United States, Britain and France in an effort to stop attacks on shipping. The United States is also attempted to convince China to join the operation as well. Both the Houthi Rebels and their Iranian handlers have made threats to US forces and vows to retaliate if certain red lines have been crossed.
My Comment:
This announcement comes after US, British and French ships shot down drones and missiles that were targeting shipping in the region this weekend. The attacks against shipping appear to be intensifying, not slowing down, so it is no surprise that a task force is being formed.
It's unclear what exactly will be happening in terms of deployment. Right now a bunch of destroyers are running around shooting down drones and missiles but I am not sure if we will be seeing any capital ships, like Aircraft Carriers, deployed to the region. There is an Amphibious Assault Ship in the Red Sea, and a carrier strike group is in the Persian Gulf but no big carriers are in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden itself. If we do see one deployed then it will be a major step up in tensions.
I am also wondering how much of an impact the Middle Eastern partners will have on the effort. Egypt and Saudi Arabia have reasonably powerful navies, though they mostly have frigates and corvettes, not destroyers. And they have a lot of smaller ships that could be useful in an defensive mission. But how well trained and effective will these crews be? I have no idea.
The Middle Eastern countries have a lot riding on shipping continuing as well. Egypt alone is looking at billions of dollars of lost revenue if shipping through the Suez Canal ceases, and they ship their own products out of the Red Sea too. It's less important to the Saudis but they were going to be knee deep in this conflict regardless.
The China question is an interesting one as well. China absolutely has an interest in shipping in the region and they also need the kind of experience for their naval crews that they could gain by joining this fleet. The problem is that relations with the United States are very cool right now and they may simply want to lie back and enjoy the mess that the Israel-Hamas conflict has caused for the United States. But then again, anti-piracy actions have made strange bedfellows before so I don't discount the possibility that they could join the conflict.
The real question is how far the Houthis, and their Iranian masters, are willing to go. The attacks they have launched so far have been relatively minor. In theory they could launch a much larger attack that could potentially overwhelm the defenses of the Destroyers operating in the Red Sea. Indeed, the USS Carney has been so involved in this fight that I have already wondered if they are running low on anti-drone and missile weapons. The other US and allied ships in the region probably have reasonably full stocks but they could burn through that very fast if a major conflict blows up.
Another question I have is if we will be taking offensive action against the Houthis. Presumably we know where these missiles are coming from and we could, in theory attack them. That might not go well because the Houthis are well equipped and could potentially shoot down our airplanes with anti-air missiles. Indeed, they have already shot down one of our MQ-9 Reaper drones. Cruise missiles are another option but, again, they could face anti-air weapons themselves.
We shouldn't underestimate the Houthis and their defenses. The Saudis were banging their heads against the Houthis for a long time and they have a fairly advanced and efficient military. This wouldn't be like taking on the Iraqis in the Gulf Wars, it would be a lot closer to a near-peer fight. Closer, though not an actual one. We would probably still win, but I don't doubt that there would be losses, in aircraft, lives and possibly even ships.
The biggest known-unknown we have is what Iran will do. Iran could join the war on the side of the Houthis and if that happens it's going to be an absolute mess. Iran is a modern state with a decent military and could threaten US and allied naval assets in the region. They could also launch terror attacks throughout the world via Hezbollah, various militias and their own sleeper agents. It would probably be a major mistake for Iran to do so, so I am guessing they would not, but you never know what could happen these days.
What really gets me is that America appears to be sleepwalking into a major conflict. The Houthis are no joke and could present a major challenge to our military and I would not be surprised if they manage to do a lot of damage in an attack. Sending a task force to the region could help but it's also possible that we could have a major issue on our hands. The media is covering it, but I just don't get the impression that the people in America have a war with Yemen on their radar right now...
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