Republicans in the House and Senate were not impressed by Zelensky's plea for more Ukraine Aid.

 

Zelensky at the US Capitol. Business Insider/Getty. 

Republicans in the House and Senate were not impressed by Ukrainian President Zelensky's plea for more aid. Business Insider. Zelensky met with Speaker of the House Johnson and several top Senators and begged for more funding and weapons. But it seems clear that aid is not forthcoming from the Republicans. Citing the border crisis and the unwillingness of the Biden administration to do something about it, with multiple GOP Senators saying that without a deal, no aid will be forthcoming. Speaker Johnson said that there were three priorities for any deal, border security here in the United States, clarity about Biden's strategy in Ukraine and an accounting on how US aid is being spent in Ukraine. 

My Comment:

Before I get into the meat of this post, I have to say that I have a great dislike for President Zelensky. I remember when he was elected that I had high hopes for the man. He had campaigned on ending the war in Donbass and was not as racist against Russians as other candidates were. Unfortunately he went back on his campaign promises and continued the war in the Donbass, which led up to the war. I am not going to be sad when he gets overthrown in a coup, which seems pretty likely now. I don't think I have ever been more disappointed in a foreign politician than I have in Zelensky. 

As for the meeting, I am not surprised that Zelensky didn't find what he was looking for. My main theory is that both Republicans and Democrats know the gig is up in Ukraine and are looking for an exit. I generally believe that the border issue is just an excuse, both sides could pass Ukraine funding without the border but nobody is even trying. I think that both parties realize that if the border security issue holds up the funding they can both blame the other side for the failures of Ukraine, even though it's clear already that they are going to lose the war. 

That's not the only possibility. I have heard other theories that this is all to induce pressure on Zelensky himself. Either for him to step down, or to actually listen to the Americans and switch to a defensive war. I tend to disagree with this interpretation as the Biden administration has been very positive on Zelensky throughout the war and have overlooked some of his very obvious flaws and at least a couple of huge mistakes, the battles of Bakhmut and Adviika being the biggest examples. 

Another theory is that the Democrats and Biden are just incompetent. They absolutely could have parceled out the Ukraine, Border and Israel bills but they did not because they are dumb. This theory is tempting because the Democrats do indeed do some very dumb things, but it also plays to my prejudices against them. Of the three options I still think the first one is the most likely. 

I don't think there will be an 11th hour deal. Remember, Congress goes on recess on the 15th of December and I don't think a deal will get done in just two days. The parties are too far apart and I don't see the White House or the Democrats making the concessions on border security anytime soon. My guess is that if Ukraine were to get more aid, it won't happen this year. 

As for the war itself, it seems like Russia is continuing to probe the enemy lines and they are working up to a slow grinding offensive. Not much movement is likely to happen until the ground freezes and armor can move again, but even then, why rush things? Ukraine is not likely to survive long term even with US aid, they simply don't have the manpower anymore.

The real question is if they can successfully change course into a defensive posture. They do not have much time to actually build a defense in depth and it's one of the reasons why they have had to hang on to Adviika for so long, there isn't much in terms of defenses behind the city. If they can they could probably hold on for awhile yet, but it's not outside of the realm of possibility that we could see a major collapse either...