Oil tanker hit by drone strike off the coast of India.

 

File photo of the Chem Pluto. Times of Israel/Port of Hamburg website. 

An oil tanker has hit and damaged by a drone strike off the coast of India, in a major escalation on attacks on shipping. Times of Israel. Though it is unclear who is responsible for the attack, Israel has blamed Iran itself of launching it. Nobody was hurt in the attack but the ship was set on fire and took on some water before damage control teams saved the ship. The vessel supposedly has links to Israel and had loaded oil from Saudi Arabia when it started its journey. The attack on yet another ship, this time at high seas, is a major escalation and it seems very unlikely to have been launched by Houthi Rebels from Yemen given the location of the attack. The attacks on shipping have been linked to the war between Israel and Hamas. 

DRONE ATTACK ON MV CHEM PLUTO-Indian Coast Guard Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre,Mumbai received information regarding fire onboard MV Chem Pluto. The Merchant ship with 20 Indian &01 Vietnamese Crew was reportedly attacked by a suspected drone strike on aerial platform.(1/6) pic.twitter.com/CpioW9MfT9

— Indian Coast Guard (@IndiaCoastGuard) December 23, 2023

 My Comment:

This is a fairly large news story that does not seem to be getting the media attention it deserves, at least as of this writing. From what it looks like Iran itself has joined the attacks on shipping that the Houthis have been using for a while now. That's a huge escalation and it dramatically raises the stakes in this conflict. 

There is some question about who is responsible for this attack. Given the range involved it is unlikely to be the Houthi Rebels in Yemen. If this is a HESA Shahed 136 I don't think it would have the range to fly all the way from Western Yemen to the coast of India. That means it would have to have been launched from somewhere else. 

Supposedly some militia group in Iraq has taken credit for the attack but I don't know how credible those claims are since I have only seen them on social media, not on any news articles. Israel is blaming Iran with is predictable and possibly accurate. Given that Iran has given these drones to the Houthis and Iraqi militias even if they didn't directly order the strike, they did allow it to happen. 

It is also possible that the drone was launched from Iran directly. If so that means this is a serious escalation. In the past when drone attacks came from the Houthis or militias Iran had at least some plausible deniability when it comes to responsibility for these attacks, and in the case of the Houthis, a reasonable argument given how independent they are. If they did launch this attack though, that means they have joined the war directly and made an enemy of any country that uses these shipping routes, which is basically all of them. However, if they continue to limit the attacks on shipping that is linked to Israel, I don't expect Russia or China to have a major problem with what they are doing. 

I am not sure what the US reaction to this attack will be. Our response to the attacks off of Yemen have been anemic to say the least. So far Operation Prosperity Guardian has been a bust, all we are doing is deploying more ships. And those ships seem content to just take defensive operations and not launch attacks. 

If attacks are going to be spreading throughout the Indian Ocean then things could get ugly pretty fast. America only has so many ships and many of them, like the Littoral Combat Ships, aren't really useful in this mission. I am no expert but I am guessing that you need the Aegis Combat System equipped ships, our destroyers and cruisers, to counter these drones and also counter the threat of anti-ship missiles. Given the other threats globally, our Navy could get stretched thin very quickly. 

I also don't know how much we can do about these attacks. We obviously aren't going to stop the war between Israel and Hamas, even if we wanted to do such a thing. And there is no guarantee that ending the war would stop these attacks. I mentioned in the previous post that we should not underestimate the tenacity and equipment of the Houthis. That goes double for Iran. Though Iran is not as powerful as the United States Navy, they are powerful enough to inflict casualties on US forces if a war breaks out. And we also have to consider the threat of terrorism from Iran and their various assorted militias, like Hezbollah, which have sleeper cells inside the United States. 

The real problem is that we have no good solution right now. We could ignore these attacks but given how much money it will cost shipping to try and avoid this conflict I don't see that being viable, especially since most Middle East oil ships from this region. A full on conflict where we attack the people launching these drones and missiles also seems untenable given how dangerous such a war would be. The current apparent strategy, where we deploy a ton of ships to the region, isn't 100% effective and also probably isn't sustainable if the conflict engulfs all of the Indian Ocean. It's an absolute mess and I am glad that I am not the one in charge of dealing with this conflict. 

I also don't think the American public is prepared for this either. Though there has been media coverage of the attacks on shipping, it hasn't been extensive and what little reaction I have seen seems to either be laughing at the Houthis and Iranians for having outdated technology, which isn't accurate, or actually praising these attacks due to hatred of Israel. I don't think America expects or desires a major war but it's very possible we will get one. 

What I do know is that any war is more likely to hurt Joe Biden than help him. People note, correctly, that the world was a much more peaceful place before he got into office. There's also the disturbing fact that a lot of young people are going to be on the side of Iran and the Houthis if a war breaks out. Young people in this country have been brainwashed to hate Israel and will even praise its enemies even when they do something like attacking shipping or even killing US troops. And the warhawks that support Biden will be angry with him for not being more aggressive. It would be a tough position for even a competent president to be in, but Joe Biden is certainly not.