US announces military exercises with Guyana after Venezuela prepares to annex much of the country.

 

The Essequibo river in Guyana. CBS News. 

The United States has announced military exercises with Guyana after Venezuela prepares to annex much of the country. CBS News. The exercises will involve flights over Guyana's territory and is meant to deter any attack from Venezuela. Venezuela just voted to annex the Essequibo region of Guyana, which they have claimed for years. However, large oil discoveries have been found and Venezuela wants access to them. Guyana is trying to use diplomacy to prevent a war and is hoping the United States and other regional partners, most notably Brazil, will deter Venezuela. 

My Comment:

Given that tensions have been high for a couple of weeks now, it's kind of amazing that there has been little reaction from the United States until now. It just goes to show how out to lunch the Biden administration is. 

Will this exercise intimidate Venezuela? Probably not. They know that Biden is a weak president and that America is way too distracted by the wars in Ukraine and Israel, not to mention domestic issues, to get involved in a major war in South America right now. A few planes flying over will not do much at all. 

And I don't think this is the kind of war where air power is going to dominate. The war, if it happens, would take deep in the Amazon jungle. It will be small infantry units infiltrating and attacking other small infantry units. In short, it will be Vietnam 2.0 and it will be the kind of war where close air support will be less important. 

Guyana has other allies though. They are a commonwealth country so they could find some support for the United Kingdom, though their military is in pretty shoddy condition right now. They would also get help from France, since French Guiana is sovereign French territory located near Guyana. Local powers, like Brazil and Suriname, might get involved as well.  

Even still, the war would be a messy one. Unless jets attack Venezuela directly, it's going to be long slog of an infantry war. I don't see a quick victory for either side and I expect there to be a lot of violence. Perhaps a large Linebacker-style Vietnam bombing campaign would end the war quicker but I don't see that happening. 

What is funny to me is that this war will likely cause some headaches for people. Venezuela has always been popular country among leftists since it was a leftist country that stood up to the United States. But now they are launching a war of conquest against a much weaker country pretty much explicitly for oil. That's the same attack these Venezuela supporters used against George Bush during the Iraq War. My guess is that they will probably ignore it unless the United States joins the war. 

So are we going to join the war? I don't know. If we do it will be in a limited fashion, with airstrikes and intelligence support. I can't see US troops on the ground in Guyana, though I wouldn't be surprised to see Brazilin troops there. And there is still a chance that diplomacy could prevail. But at this point I would be more surprised if there wasn't a war than if there is.