Does China have too many domestic problems to invade Taiwan?

 

The President of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen. The Guardian/Reuters.

The President of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen says that China has too many domestic problems to invade Taiwan. The Guardian. China considers Taiwan to be a rogue province and have not ruled out an invasion, though President Xi prefers to do so "peacefully".  Ing-wen said that Xi has too many internal problems, including the economy, and financial and political challenges. Intel agencies believe that China will not be ready to invade Taiwan until 2027.

My Comment:

This seems like wishful thinking from President Ing-wen, who will be leaving office soon regardless. Elections are in January and the President is term limited, so she will not be running again. Unless China invades in the next month or so, she won't be in charge when it happens.

There are two questions to answer here. Does China have the military capability to invade Taiwan? And if they do, is now the right time to do so? President Ing-wen certainly thinks the 2nd question's answer is no. But it's a moot question if China doesn't have the actual military power to invade. 

My guess is that China isn't quite ready for an invasion of Taiwan. China has never launched an amphibious invasion of this scale and it would be extremely difficult. Amphibious invasions are among the most difficult military operations period, and given that they would also have to defeat the US Navy and the navy of other allies like Japan and Australia, I don't think China is ready to pull it off. 

Will they be able to in a couple of years, or 2027 like the intel agencies predict? I am not sure. They are building up their fleet and large stockpiles of weapons, but I think it's going to be a lot rougher for them if they do decide to invade. They probably need more than what they will have even then, modern warfare is brutal. Just look at the Ukraine conflict, both Russia and Ukraine thought they were well prepared for modern warfare, and both ended up being pretty wrong. 

But I don't know if I agree that the timing is wrong for an invasion in terms of politics. Right now the United States is in the weakest position it has ever been and there is the distraction of the wars in Israel and Ukraine offering a major distractions. Our weapon supplies are low and we have had difficulty arming Taiwan. All of this could not be true by the time China is fully armed up for a conflict. 

As for China's domestics problems, I don't think their problems are any worse than anyone else. A couple of years ago when the pandemic was ravaging the country and the entire place was in lockdown, I would say it was for sure more important to deal with domestic problems than invading Taiwan. But now? 

The Chinese economy isn't doing the best, but nobody is right now. And they don't really have all that much in the way of civil unrest or potential revolutions, they have been very good at putting those down. I'm far from a China expert, so perhaps I am just missing something, but right now I don't just see it. 

And I also think that if China is having problems, a major war would be a way to deal with it. How true the political theory that countries start war to unite the country and distract against domestic problems? I am not sure, but it's certainly a trope. Given how important Taiwan is to China it may indeed unite Chinese people and could distract from China's problems or make the people more willing to deal with it, even though I think that any war with Taiwan would probably make them worse. 

Still, I am not convinced that China is actually that interested in an invasion. They are probably more interested in a political solution. All they really need is a pro-China faction to win in Taiwan and that is certainly a possibility. 

Tensions between Venezuela and Guyana are increasing as Venezuela votes on annexing territory.

 

Map showing the disputed territory. France24/AFP. 

Tensions between Venezuela and Guyana are increasing as Venezuela has scheduled to vote on annexing the Essequibo region. France 24. The region has been disputed for years, but oil discoveries have increased the tensions since 2015. Another discovery last month brings Guyana's oil reserves larger than Kuwait or the UAE. The referendum would reject the 1899 compromise that set the borders between the two countries, along with granting citizenship in annexed regions and rejecting an international criminal court ruling over the dispute. Guyana said all options are on the table to defend the region, including inviting other countries to station troops in the country. 

My Comment:

This is hardly the first times tensions have been high between Venezuela and Guyana. Indeed, I wrote about it five years ago already. Much of what I wrote then still applies now, Venezuela is dramatically more powerful than Guyana and would likely win a war with them if Guyana could not get any allies. But given that Guyana would have gotten help in 2018, the war never happened. 

Today? Things are a bit different. The United States is absolutely not prepared for a war in Venezuela and neither are most other potential allies for Guyana. America's focus is on Israel right now, with Ukraine also drawing massive amounts of funds and attention. And the commonwealth nations? Same issue. 

That doesn't mean that Guyana wouldn't have help. Supposedly Brazil has been mobilizing troops near the border with Venezuela, though I don't know how true those rumors are. Regardless, Brazil would likely back Guyana if they were attacked by Venezuela. 

Would that be enough? I think it would be. Venezuela does have a large military but Brazil is more modern and has a bigger one. Guyana itself does not have much of a military, but Brazil would give them a lot of backbone. 

And even if Guyana had to fight on its own, I don't expect the war would go that well for Venezuela regardless. Invading a jungle region would be a major problem for any military, but I doubt that Venezuela would have good morale. I can't imagine fighting for a government as incompetent and pathetic as the Venezuelan government. Plus, they don't have a lot of manpower to draw from since so many people have fled their socialist government. 

Back in 2018, I though Venezuela's air power would help them win the war, but we have seen how effective air defense systems can be. Indeed, air power has largely been irrelevant in the Ukraine War and only recently, as Ukraine has run out of air defense missiles, is it starting to matter again. If I was Guyana I would be trying to modernize their air defenses as soon as possible. 

I do think that a war is possible as Venezuela may never get a better opportunity. America is weaker than we have ever been in modern history with an absolute failure as a president. By 2025, Biden will likely be out of office and there will be someone there that will have more of a backbone and will likely have the Israel-Gaza war and Ukraine-Russia war under control. Their window is closing so it might be a now or never thing. 

I also don't think there is any chance of this vote failing. Venezuela's elections are about as secure as our own and since the government wants this referendum to pass it will likely pass. When it does happen then war could happen as well. 

How likely is it? I am not sure. It didn't happen five years ago and there are a lot of reasons for Venezuela to back down, especially since I don't think they are prepared for a major war. But if it does happen I won't be that surprised. 

Nikki Haley gets Koch network endorsement.

 

Nikki Haley. NPR/AP.

Nikki Haley has gotten an endorsement from the anti-Trump and Koch Network backed Americans for Prosperity. NPR. AFP said that Republicans are picking "bad candidates" and that Democrats are reacting to "extreme policies" from those candidates. They also say that 3/4's of Republicans are ready to move on from Donald Trump, despite Trump often polling in the 60's and 70's for support. Haley has moved into 2nd place after Trump, bypassing Floridian Governor Ron DeSantis. AFP said they would be spending money on propping up Haley's campaign. 

My Comment:

This story isn't all that important in the big scheme of things, Haley has zero chance of being the candidate. She's just where the anti-Trump GOP fringe are landing after Ron DeSantis and his campaign have had a fairly epic collapse. Still, it's worth talking about to see what the neocons are going to push this election cycle. 

Though I have long said that I would vote for whoever I thought would win against Joe Biden, I don't think I could do it for Haley. She's terrible on many levels and the only advantage I would see over Joe Biden is the fact that she's at least not senile. In foreign policy, nothing would change, she would still be a warmongering idiot. 

In the past I could at least say that she was better on social issues but given her plan to ban private accounts on the internet, that isn't the truth at all. That idea is one of the worst I have ever seen and one that even Biden doesn't seem to be interested in. Indeed, Biden would actually be better on the issue, as bad as he is at least I can badmouth him anonymously on the internet. Haley wouldn't allow that. 

What is funny is that Ron DeSantis has failed so spectacularly that Haley has been able to surpass him in several states. DeSantis has run a terrible campaign, with a disastrous launch on Twitter, multiple campaign scandals, and a completely misguided attempt to try and win voters with extremely annoying astroturfed social media accounts. I have said for awhile now that the DeSantis campaign will be studied by future historians and politicians will study his campaign so they may learn from his failure. 

Haley has been running a much better campaign. Even though I hate her policies her supporters haven't been anywhere near as insufferable as DeSantis and his online crew. Her only major scandal so far was the above internet restriction plan. That should be disqualifying as far as I am concerned but the anti-Trump groups like AFP are desperate. They will take anyone to defeat Trump. 

Of course it's a lost cause. Even if all the non-Trump candidates were lumped together, they are getting 35% of the vote at most, none of them can beat Trump. Trump's actually gaining strength and the polls are now showing him beating Joe Biden, something they did not show in 2020. I think many Republicans who don't even like Trump are starting to realize that no only is he going to win the primary race, he's the best chance the GOP has to take back the White House in 2024... 

Mud season is official here as Ukraine and Russia face massive winter storm.

 

A rescue vehicle towing a car stuck in the snow near Odessa Ukraine. Reuters. 

A massive snow storm has hit Ukraine and Russia leaving at least eight people dead and injuring more. Reuters. Ukraine suffered at least five deaths while neighboring Moldova saw at least three. The massive snow storm knocked out power throughout Ukraine and more than 1500 trucks were stranded. High winds left snow drifts six feet deep in some locations. 

Russia too was deeply affected due to the storm, including in Crimea, which they annexed from Ukraine in 2014. Al-Jazeera. Russian sources say the storm was the worst to hit Crimea since records have been recorded. At least three Russians died in the storm. 

My Comment:

Even though Russia and Ukraine are at war and aren't sharing much, the one thing they are getting to share is terrible November weather. This was a massive storm and it's going to complicate things for both sides of this conflict. And it sounds like more snow is on the way. 

The storm is obviously going to complicate logistics for both sides. With thousands of trucks stuck in the snow Ukraine is going to have difficulty moving troops and weapons to the front lines. And neither side is going to really be able to resupply from the sea. It sounds like a lot of ports in the region are going to be closed for a bit. 

It won't take too long to clear out the snow even with the massive amount dropped during this storm. Both sides are obviously very familiar with snow and know how to remove it. I think things will probably go back to normal in a few days, depending on how badly the 2nd part of the storm goes. 

What I do know is that I have a lot of sympathy for soldiers fighting on both sides of the war. Fighting the kind of high intensity artillery war Russia and Ukraine are fighting right now is probably close to hell, but having to deal with snow, cold and wind on top of it? I can't imagine a worse environment to fight in, short of space. As horrible as jungle warfare can be, I'd take it any day of the week over fighting in a Russian or Ukrainian winter. 

This storm does show that mud season is in full swing and it will affect both sides attempts at offensives. This is the worst time of it as well as in deep winter the snow and ground hardens enough that you can still attack. Not so much in fall, when all this snow is likely to melt a bit and turn everything into mud. 

That doesn't mean the war will stop, far from it. It just means that whatever battles that happen will likely involve dismounted infantry and not armor. To be fair, that's what Ukraine has been doing already. After horrendous casualties Ukraine mostly fights with infantry and is keeping their armor in reserves. Russia has been using armor more, especially around Adviika, but they will probably have to go back to regular infantry attacks. 

US Navy arrests pirates in the Gulf of Aden.

 

File photo of the Central Park. Business Insider.

The US Navy arrested pirates in the Gulf of Aden in the latest incident of shipping being attacked in the region. Business Insider. Unknown attackers took over the Central Park, a Liberian flagged ship linked to an Israeli billionaire. Five gunmen boarded the ship but were foiled when the crew locked themselves in the ship's safe room. A US destroyer, the USS Mason, and a Japanese destroyer, captured the pirates after they left the ship. The attack is part of a series of attacks on shipping in the Gulf of Aden. It is unclear who launched the attack as the attack took place far away from Houthi rebel controlled areas in Yemen and far away from Somalia, which has had issues with pirates in the past. 

Fox News is reporting that Houthi rebels launched a ballistic missile attack against the USS Mason after the piracy incident. The missiles landed harmlessly in the Gulf of Aden. 

My Comment:

Yet another incident of piracy and attacks on shipping in the Gulf of Aden. This is how wars start and I don't know how much longer countries are going to put up with it. I have said for awhile piracy is not something that is tolerated in the modern world and it could very well end up with a new war, or, more accurately, a bigger extension of the Israel-Hamas war. 

Indeed, this isn't the first time the Houthis attacked shipping in the Gulf of Aden. I wrote about the Galaxy Leader when it was hijacked. From what I understand the Houthis still have that ship and its crew hostage. There haven't been a lot of updates with that story but it does show how dangerous this area has gotten. 

I don't have much doubt that these were Houthi rebels. Somali pirates are mostly a thing of the past and the rest of Yemen doesn't really participate in this kind of piracy. I guess it's possible that it was al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula or ISIS but they aren't very active right now and I would assume that since the Houthis launched ballistic missiles at the USS Mason they were responsible for the attack. 

I also have to question the use of ballistic missiles against a Navy destroyer. American destroyers are pretty big ships but they can maneuver and I doubt the missiles the Houthis are using are accurate or maneuverable enough to hit a ship at sea without a huge amount of luck. I am guessing they have a surplus of ballistic missiles and aren't happy with how ineffective it was during their strikes on Israel so they might be trying to find a new use for them.

It's pretty funny that this attack failed pretty spectacularly. Unlike the attack on the Galaxy leader where the crew got blindsided, this crew as ready for the attackers and managed to lock them out. Apparently, without someone to actually sail the ship, the pirates were at a loss what to do next and simply gave up, only to get arrested by the US Navy. This attack was a pretty bad failure on their part 

Mitt Romney says he would vote for Democrats over Trump and Ramaswamy...

 

Mitt Romney. The Hill/AP.

Mitt Romney said in an interview that he would vote for Democrats over Donald Trump and Vivek Ramaswamy. The Hill. Romney said he would vote for any of the other Republicans running besides Trump and Ramaswamy and said he would vote for some Democrats. He also said that the Democrats might be a better choice than Joe Biden as well. Romney has already announced that he is not going to run for his Senate seat in 2024 and said that both parties need younger leadership. Romney has been at odds with Donald Trump for years now and his biographer has said that he may go so far as to endorse Joe Biden. 

My Comment:

Fairly slow news day this Saturday but I thought I would write a quick post up about this. Man has Mitt Romney fallen down in my opinion of him. To be fair, there are candidates I wouldn't support in the 2024 election, most notably Nikki Haley for wanting to ban anonymous internet accounts and Chris Christie for being anti-gun, but even in those scenarios I would not be voting for a Democrat. I would either vote for the least crazy third party candidate or I would write in Donald Trump. No way in hell would I vote for Joe Biden. 

What is crazy is that I actually defended Romney back in the day and voted for him as well. I regret it now, almost as much as I regret voting for John McCain. Were they a lesser evil than Barack Obama? Probably, but that doesn't mean much. They absolutely would not have done the positive things that Donald Trump did during his tenure as President. 

I do think it's clear that Romney represents the old neocon wing of the Republican Party and that wing has lost most of its power and influence. Romney says he isn't running in 2024, but my guess is that he understands he would likely be primaried out in Utah if he had tried to run. People just don't like what he has to sell anymore. It's not so much because he betrayed Trump, it's the reason why he did so, and that's because he's a neocon warmonger. 

It's also why Romney doesn't like Vivek Ramaswamy either. Ramaswamy has many of the same political beliefs as Trump does and it does go to show that it's not Trump's personality that these folks hate, it's his beliefs. They don't want someone that won't start wars or allow illegal immigration and that's why they hate both Ramaswamy and Trump. 

Regardless, Romney is on his way out and won't be politically relevant for much longer. Once he is out of the senate the only way anyone will pay attention to him is on cable news, which nobody watches now anyways. He doesn't have the power to play kingmaker in the 2024 race. 

With that being said, I do think he is right that both parties need new blood and that leadership is far too old. Trump is mostly getting a pass because he's both extremely popular and pretty spry for his age, but the leadership of both parties is getting up there in years. Mitch McConnel, Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden himself are getting too old to lead and it's time someone replaced them. Romney is 76 but he's right that he's getting up there in age too. If that was the real reason he's dropping out I would praise him for that at least. 

Riots break out in Ireland after a mass stabbing injured five people including children.

 

Riot police form up near the site of the stabbing. Fox News/Reuters.

Riots have broken out in Ireland after a mass stabbing injured five people including children. Fox News. Four children and an adult woman were injured in the mass stabbing with one of the little girls in critical condition. Police haven't released the motive for the attack but said the attacker was in his 50's. Civilians managed to subdue the attacker and sent him to the hospital as well. The attack angered the local community to the point where much of Dublin was hit by riots. Rioters set fire to vehicles and fought with the police using stools taken from pubs. 

My Comment:

The elephant in the room that isn't really mentioned in the Fox News report is the fact that the suspect is believed to be an Algerian immigrant and not an Irish national. That hasn't been confirmed as the Irish police are being very cagey of the attacker's identity. There is a possibility that the attacker was not an African Muslim but I would think if it was an Irish attacker we would have already known about it now. 

The motive of this attack is unclear at this point. It's very likely terrorism, possibly retaliation for the Israel-Hamas war. However, it's possible it was just some random nutjob as well. Ireland isn't getting the best immigrants and I wouldn't be surprised if they had a lot of mentally ill people in with the migrants. 

If the rumors of him being an Algerian are true, I would expect this to be Islamic terrorism. Mass stabbings are a common tactic for them and there certainly has been an elevated threat from Islamic terrorists lately. There isn't really any surprise about a mass stabbing in Europe at this point. 

The good news is that bystanders stepped up and beat the hell out of this attacker. It's unclear who the heroes that stopped this man are but they did what you are supposed to do when there is an attack like this. Fighting back is dangerous of course, especially in Europe where nobody is allowed to be armed, but if you wait for the cops to come and shoot the attacker, people can die. If those people hadn't intervened, more people could have been stabbed or even killed. 

I am not surprised that people started rioting after this attack. From what I understand the status of African immigrants has been extremely controversial and the Irish government simply isn't listening to demands to not bring these people in. Given the fact that this attack was entirely predictable I don't blame them for being upset. 

Was it right to riot though? Probably not. Burning police cars and city busses are not really going to do much. Public disorder rarely accomplishes anything unless it advances to an actual insurgency. And I don't see that happening in Dublin anytime soon. 

I do expect that these kinds of riots will be more common in Europe. People are incredibly sick of the damage caused by these immigrants. They are sick of crime and terror attacks and they are reaching the limit of what they are going to accept. If Europe is lucky that simply means that right wing parties, like the Party for Freedom did in Holland. If they are not expect to see more riots and possibly even civil war... 

Car destroyed in fiery crash at US border with Canada at the Rainbow Bridge

 

The aftermath of the crash. ABC News/WKBW.

A car was destroyed in a fiery crash at the US border with Canada at the Rainbow Bridge. ABC News. No explosives were found at the scene and New York Governor Kathy Hochul said that there was no indication of terrorism. Dramatic video shows the car traveling at a high rate of speed and getting vaulted high into the air. The driver and passenger of the car were killed and a booth agent was injured. It is unclear what the cause of the incident is. 

🚨#BREAKING: New surveillance video shows the moment when the white vehicle went airborne and crashed at the Rainbow Bridge Crossing checkpoint before going up in flames near Niagara Falls pic.twitter.com/7I2JGM9aTw

— R A W S A L E R T S (@rawsalerts) November 22, 2023

My Comment:

The initial reporting on this story has been odd. First news outlets, including Fox News, were saying this was a terror attack and that there was explosives detected. Now they are saying that it wasn't and there were no explosives. I don't really trust either report. Given the incident just happened anything could happen. 

Though the government is claiming that this isn't terrorism, it's still possible it was. Without knowing much about who did this and why it's too early to rule it out. Car ramming attacks are of course a thing and this could be that. Generally speaking though, car ramming attacks target crowds, not stationary buildings. 

There are a lot of other possibilities as well. It's possible that the driver was drunk or high and didn't have control of their vehicle. It's also possible that they had some kind of mental break and did this because of it. It might even be a murder-suicide. 

Another possibility is that the accelerator got stuck. Watching the video it looked like there was smoke or something coming from the car, which could be the driver desperately trying to brake as the accelerator is stuck. However, it's also pretty likely that the "smoke" coming from the car was just water being pushed up as the car drove at high speed. 

Regardless of the cause I do think that there is a lot of fear right now of a major terror attack. When this happened everyone assumed that it was a terror attack on the border. It's possible it still is, but everyone was very sure because the threat is so high. With the Israel-Hamas war happening and a general threat from Islamic terrorism, it would not be a surprise if we do see an attack soon. 

Finally, if we do find out about this case I think it will probably be ignored. Tomorrow is Thanksgiving and the day after that is Black Friday, a holiday and an unofficial holiday. If the news about this incident is politically inconvenient I expect it to be buried on one of those two days. 

US launches air strike after Iran-backed militants launch ballistic missile strike on US base in Iraq.

 

File photo of an AC-130U. ABC News/Air Force Photo. 

The United States has launched after Iran-backed militias launched a ballistic missile strike on an US base in Iraq. ABC News. The militia launched a ballistic missile from a truck that hit Al-Asad air base in Western Iraq. The missile did some minor damage to base facilities and caused several injuries. An AC-130 was in the area flying overwatch and responded to the attack, destroying the vehicle and killing several militia. This was the first use of ballistic missiles to attack an US base in Iraq or Syria. Iran backed militias have attacked US forces 66 times since the war between Israel and Gaza broke out. 

My Comment:

The low scale war between the United States and these militias in Iraq and Syria continues. This time the militias did not get away with it. An AC-130 happened to be in the area and they utterly destroyed these attackers. It seems like it was just luck though, as the AC-130 was close enough to actually see the missile being launched. 

The attackers on the ground did not stand much of a chance. The AC-130 is excellent against light vehicles and infantry and once the gunship had them in their sights they didn't stand a chance. I doubt any of these attackers survived and there probably wasn't much left of them. 

The use of ballistic missiles in Iraq is a major step out in sophistication for these militias. The Yemen conflict showed how useful those weapons are and it seems that Iran has given these weapons to more than just the Houthi rebels there. Now they are giving them to these militias in Iraq and presumably Syria as well. 

This is a pretty big escalation. In the past these militias had artillery and crappy drones but now they have ballistic missiles. They will be able to launch further attacks and it's only a matter of time before someone gets killed in one of these strikes. 

One does wonder why we even still have troops there in Iraq and Syria. The war with ISIS is pretty much over, ISIS does not have a large presence in either country. Some of it is to counter Iranian ambitions in the region but honestly, that doesn't seem like it is worth it. All these bases seem to accomplish is drawing attacks from these militias. 

I do expect these attacks to continue. Supposedly there have been 66 of them since the war between Israel and Gaza broke out, but you have to remember there was a low intensity conflict even before then. These attacks are mostly status quo ante and will likely continue even if the war between Israel and Gaza is resolved. 

What I don't expect is this devolving into a larger conflict. I expect the same tit-for-tat strike and counterstrike that we have had there for years. Unless Iran itself launches major attacks against US forces a war is extremely unlikely and even then it could be avoided if cooler heads in Washington prevail. Remember, Iran launched a major missile attack on US forces in Iraq in response to the Qasem Soleimani and nothing much happened in response. 

Joe Biden turns 81 with his age being a major campaign issue.

 

Joe Biden. ABC News/AP.

Joe Biden will turn 81 tomorrow as his age is becoming a major campaign issue. ABC News. At 81, Biden is the oldest man to hold the office of president and would be 86 if he completed a 2nd term. His main opponent, Donald Trump, is 77, but has mostly avoided the scrutiny Biden gets for his age. Biden and his team claims that he is fine and that his age gives him "experience". Americans tend to not agree with him as 74% of Americans in a Washington Post/ABC News poll said he was too old while only 50% of Americans said the same was true for Trump. A CNN poll of Democrats in New Hampshire said 56% of Democrats said their biggest concern with Biden is his age. 

My Comment:

I know I have made this comment before but we sure are looking like Russia before the fall of the Soviet Union with geriatric leaders. It's not just Biden, but it was Mitch McConnell, Nancy Pelosi and the late Diane Feinstein as well. Trump's getting up there in years too and there really isn't a chance of us having a younger president in 2024 unless something happens to both men. 

Biden gets more scrutiny on this because he's obviously showing his age. Unlike Trump, who is still pretty spry and sharp, Biden is looking weak and worn out. Have you seen him walking lately? His gait is stilted and he does not move like a man that is going to last much longer. Trump's a man in his 70s that moves like he is 55 while Biden is 81 and moves like he is 106. 

And Biden's mind has certainly started to slip as well. He simply is not the man he used to be. He has declined since the start of his presidency, let alone from his days as Obama's VP or as a Senator. Even today he confused Taylor Swift for Britney Spears. To be fair, as an old man, I don't expect him to remember every pop star, but since it was a prepared joke referencing a recent concert issue with Swift, you would have thought he would have remembered. It just seems like he's getting more and more confused. 

The elephant in the room is that NOBODY wants Kamala Harris to be president. Harris is historically unpopular and I have always said that the one person on Earth that could do worse than Biden is Kamala Harris. People know this and aren't going to be willing to vote for Biden when his chances of making it through a 2nd term, with all the stress of being a president, are almost nil.

Incidentally this also applies to Trump. Though Trump is younger and in better health than Biden, he needs a good VP candidate to potentially take over. Before Mike Pence ruined his reputation on January 6th, he was a good reason for voting for Trump as he seemed like he would be a decent replacement. Trump needs someone younger and competent to potentially take over for him 

It does make me wonder  what exactly the Democrats plan is. It's pretty clear that Biden won't be able to handle the stress of an extended campaign and with polls starting to show Biden far behind in the polls, he can't just hide in his basement like he did in 2020. The margin of support for Trump is to the point where even voter fraud might not be enough to beat him, just like what happened in 2016. 

I have suspected for awhile that the Democrats have to have a backup plan and it's probably Gavin Newsome. I don't know if they will let Biden continue to campaign or if they will replace him during the convention. The problem with that is that Biden would have to consent to it and it seems to me that Biden is pretty desperate to hang onto power. No matter what the plan is, Biden is throwing a wrench into it.  

Houthi rebels from Yemen attack and capture a Japanese freighter.

 

File photo of the Galaxy Leader. NBC News/AP.

Houthi rebels from Yemen have attacked and captured a Japanese freighter in the Red Sea. NBC News. The Houthis attacked via a helicopter and rappelled down to the deck of the freighter. The attack came after the Houthis threatened shipping in the region due to the war between Israel and Gaza. The ship was not involved with Israel with the ship having no Israeli crew members and was owned by Japan and flagged in the Bahamas. It has picked up cargo in Turkey and was bringing it to India. The Houthis have been very involved in the Israel-Hamas war, launching missiles, both cruise and ballistic, and drones against Israel. 

My Comment:

From what I understand there were 25 crew members aboard the Galaxy Leader when it was attacked and now all of them are being held by the Houthis. This is a major escalation and will likely lead to conflict, perhaps even war, if they are not released soon. 

The one thing you don't mess with is international shipping. If you do the hammer of the gods comes down on you. When the Somali piracy situation became out of control the entire world worked together to stop it. Even North Korea and the United States worked together to help stop the pirates and they were eventually successful. 

This has a huge chance of drawing other nations into the war. Countries won't tolerate their shipping being attacked and given the strategic position of Yemen, the only way to avoid the area is to go around the Cape of Good Hope, and that's not viable for many reasons, the most obvious being the fact that it's thousands of miles out of the way. 

This attack was fairly sophisticated by piracy standards. Most pirate attacks don't involve commandos rappelling down from a helicopter. It's another example how the Houthis are not just another Islamist terror group, they are an actual army with powerful military assets, including ballistic missiles and drones. 

Getting this crew back is going to be difficult. The only thing that they have going for them is that none of them are Israelis and the ship itself has little to do with Israel. If the Houthis feel that keeping them would be dangerous they might release them since their quarrel is with Israel, not the rest of the world. 

But I don't think it's going to play out that way. The Houthis are ideologically driven and are also proxies with Iran. They have leverage here and could use it to pressure countries into not backing the war in Gaza. They could even kill some of the hostages, though as Shia Muslims that seems somewhat less likely. 

A military option to get these hostages back would be difficult to say the least. Again, the Houthis have a large and advanced hybrid military. They have a lot of tech like drones and missiles that would make operations against them difficult. It wouldn't be impossible but there would be a higher chance of failure than you would see in most cases like this. My hope is that the hostages will be released and make the whole issue moot, but if not it will be an ugly rescue operation to say the least...

After rolling out the red carpet for President Xi of China, Joe Biden calls him a dictator.

 

Joe Biden and Xi Jinping. Reuters.

After a major state meeting with President of Xi of China where relations were improved, Joe Biden has again called Xi a "dictator". Reuters. Biden had called Xi a dictator last June and a reporter asked if he still felt the same way. Biden replied "Look, he is. He's a dictator in the sense that he's a guy who runs a country that is a communist country that's based on a form of government totally different than ours,". China responded and condemned the comments, saying they strongly opposed them. 

My Comment:

Biden is absolutely terrible at diplomacy. He had actually had a minor victory with his negotiations with China, securing the resumption of military ties, but then he made this comment, which probably undid a lot of progress he had made. It's the very definition of an own goal. 

Do I think Xi is a dictator? Kind of. In theory China has elections and they could presumably get rid of Xi if they wanted to. That hasn't really been tested and until it happens we don't know what would happen and since that is the case it can be argued that Xi is indeed a dictator. I prefer to think of him as an Emperor myself, since it's China we are talking about, but that's neither here nor there. 

Regardless it's idiotic to call Xi this when Biden is trying to improve relations with China. China is obviously not happy about it. It was a diplomatic insult and one that China isn't just going to shake off. Did it undo all the progress that was made with the talks? Time will tell, but it certainly wasn't going to help things.

I also think it's another example of Biden's senility. It seemed like he was saying whatever he thought without thinking about the consequences. I am guessing his handlers had a heart attack when he said it. If Biden wasn't a million years old I don't think he would have said it, instead he would have been more diplomatic to say the least. Or call out the reporter for asking the question. But he could have hardly handled it worse. 

It also demonstrates the difference between Biden and Trump. Trump was known for insulting people, including heads of state, but in his case he only did it before a big meeting like this. After the big meetings, like the one with Kim Jong Un that essentially froze the threat there until Biden got into office, Trump treated people diplomatically, offering praise and support. Trump would have managed this question better, and would probably have mocked the reporter for asking it. 

What is even more strange about this whole thing is the fact that Biden rolled out the red carpet for Xi. They cleaned up San Francisco, a task I didn't think was even possible, for him. They welcomed him like a conquering king, with flags and banners. They basically treated him like he was the President of the United States, not Biden. It was rather absurd and fairly disrespectful to America. 

So why treat Xi like a king and then insult him? It makes no sense. And I do think it was just Joe Biden having yet another senior moment. And I am guessing that Biden's handlers are falling over themselves to explain to China that Biden's comments were just him being a dotard and isn't official US policy. 

And if Xi really is a dictator like Biden says, why would we roll out the red carpet for him? I have no problem with meeting with foreign dictators, kings and other unsavory characters but we don't have to treat them better than we treat our own citizens. Again though, I think this was just Biden being Biden, the man is not well and should not be president. 

After the failure of the summer offensive, Ukraine has launched another offensive near Kherson

 

Ukrainian soldiers fire a mortar. BBC/AFP.

After the failure of the summer offensive, Ukraine has launched another offensive near Kherson. BBC. Ukraine managed to capture a bridgehead across the Dnipro river south of Kherson. Russia acknowledged the bridgehead and said the troops there would be destroyed. Russians have sent reinforcements to the area. Ukraine had launched multiple attacks in the area over the spring and summer and did not have any success. Despite the advance, most of the fighting in the Ukraine war is centered around Avdiivka, with most Ukrainian units in a defensive role.

My Comment:

A desperation attack from Ukraine, and one that makes almost zero sense. Attacking across a river when you don't have air or artillery support is insane. Doing it with those things is extremely difficult, which is why Ukraine should have stayed on their side of the Dnipro and force the Russians to attack them. Instead they are attacking... again. 

The only way this makes sense is that Ukraine feels they need to make positive headlines to refocus flagging attention to the war. This has been a media war from the beginning and Ukraine needs to convince American lawmakers that they are actually winning. They aren't, and that's becoming more and more obvious.

It's also possible that the attack is an effort to draw Russian troops away from Avdiivka. Even though pro-Ukraine articles are saying that Avdiivka isn't actually that strategically important, it's actually a critical city. It's a major transportation hub and it threatens Donetsk. If it were to be retaken, and it sure looks like it will be, Ukraine would no longer be able to do anything about Donetsk and would have to cease their artillery attacks there. 

If that is their goal, I don't think it will work. Unlike Ukraine, Russia has plenty of reserves and can respond to this attack while advancing in Avdiivka as well. And given Russian air and artillery superiority these troops will be left out to dry. 

Plus, keep in mind that Russia might not want to advance quickly in Avdiivka. Russia has the troops there surrounded by three sides and can hit entrance and exit routes with artillery. Russia can replicate the slow, grinding offensive they did in Bakhmut which caused so many casualties for the Ukrainian military. 

I do think that the Ukrainian military is close to collapse. Close is a relative thing of course, they could last a year or more if things go their way. And this attack shows they are still capable of offensive operations. But they are running out of money, weapons and, most importantly, troops. Eventually they are going to run out completely and then they will collapse. 

And it might happen pretty soon. There are rumors that Zelenksy is purging his generals and the generals are not agreeing to these constant attacks. And funding has been drying up. The country does not look like it's going last much longer and, more importantly, Russia has shown absolutely no evidence of giving up the war... 

Nikki Haley calls for the banning of anonymous accounts on the internet...

 

Nikki Haley. The Hill/AP.

Nikki Haley has called for the banning of anonymous accounts on the internet. The Hill. Haley said the first thing she would do as president was to expose social media accounts algorithms, but she then said that every social media account should be linked to a real identity. She said it was a national security threat to have anonymous accounts and it would force people to be more "civil" if their words were attached to their own names. She also said that doing so would get rid of "bots" from Russia, China and Iran. 

.@NikkiHaley is *openly* pushing for the government to use private tech companies to censor speech. This is a flagrant violation of the Constitution and straight out of the Democrats’ playbook. Any politician who thinks it’s OK for the government to use the private sector as its… pic.twitter.com/Cb1847r6CA

— Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) November 14, 2023

My Comment:

This is, without a doubt, the dumbest thing I have heard Nikki Haley say and she's said a lot I disagree with. But this? This ensures that I wouldn't even vote for her if she is the candidate against Joe Biden. Biden is many things, almost all of them terrible, but at the very least I can still criticize him on the internet without using my real name. If Haley gets in, that goes away. 

The fear would be that this would have an instant and severe chilling effect on speech. If everything you say is linked to your real name then people could find out where you live and where you work and use what you say against you. You wouldn't be able to speak about any controversial issue at all without risking losing your job or even face violence for your words. 

Given that people are already afraid to say what they think in this country, doing this would pretty much destroy the idea that people have free speech. People would have no chance to say what they want because someone from the other side would hunt them down and go after their jobs at best. 

And having the government do this? It's a huge 1st amendment violation. The government doesn't have the right to govern speech, whether or not that speech is anonymous or not. Indeed, given that the founding fathers worked under pseudonyms, they understood what free speech means. The government has no right to know what I have to say. 

This would also utterly destroy websites that use anonymous users like Reddit, and 4chan. While you can make an argument that both websites are pretty terrible, you have to note that both sites are incredibly politically influential. Getting rid of anonymity would greatly influence politics and would shut down sites that are critical of the government. 

What really gets me is that this would be a huge own goal for the Republican Party. For the most part, influential Democrats can post under their own names without fear of censorship. But conservative voices? If you post under your own name you get canceled. There are so many influential accounts on social media that only exist because they are able to do so anonymously. And Nikki Haley wants to get rid of that?

As for Haley herself, what on earth is she thinking? This is an idea that most Democrats wouldn't support, let alone her own party. I never really liked Haley and totally rejected her when she went all in on supporting the Ukraine War. But this is far beyond that and really makes me wonder why on earth anyone would support her... 

The Hamas plan to attack Israel on October 7th was ambitious and had a goal of linking up with terrorists in the West Bank.

 

Map showing the ambitions of the October 7th attack. The Daily Mail. 

The Hamas plan to attack Israel on October 7th were even more ambitious and had a goal of linking up with terrorists in the West Bank. The Daily Mail. Militants were equipped with weapons, thermobaric grenades and enough food to last several days. The attacks were supposed to make it all the way to the West Bank, but the attack sputtered out in Ofakim, which is halfway between Gaza and the West Bank. Hamas had been planning the attack for over year and conducted a large number of reconnaissance missions using drones. 

My Comment:

When the attack occurred I was honestly impressed that Hamas was able to accomplish what they were able to do. They managed a massive surprise attack, inflicted heavy casualties on local military units and were able to kill and capture a large number of civilians. And they did that against a much stronger and technologically advanced enemy. 

But if these reports are true then perhaps Hamas considers the attack a failure. They were clearly very ambitious and wanted to link up with local terror groups in the West Bank. They didn't really get close, with their furthest advance being only halfway there. 

Part of this was due to their focus on attacking and capturing civilians. This slowed down their attack and likely prevented their major goal of linking up with the West Bank. However, I think taking hostages was the main goal of the Hamas attack and linking up with the West Bank was a secondary objective. 

Regardless, reaching the West Bank was probably unrealistic in the first place. The further they got into Israel the stronger resistance was going to be and given that much of the Israeli military was deployed near the West Bank they probably would have never accomplished their goal. On the other hand, they did have surprise. 

As for the attack, I think it was a Pyrrhic victory for Hamas. They appear to be losing the war and losing it badly. Though they are winning the propaganda war, at least internationally, they have few allies and Israel is pushing them very hard. It seems the local Arab states are just looking the other way this time, looking like they just want to go through the motions and haven't really abandoned the normalization process with Israel . And the hostages they took? They don't seem to have been much use as Israel is just attacking, not negotiating. 

180,000 people in France protest against anti-Semitism.

 

Protesters in Paris, lead by a French Prime Minster and two former Presidents. CBS News/Getty.

More than 180,000 turned up for protests across France against anti-Semitism in the wake of the Israel-Hamas war. CBS News. Prime Minster Elisabeth Borne represented the center left while members of President Marcron's Renaissance party marched as well. Marine Le Pen represented the far right. However, the far-Left did not participate in the march with the leader of the France Unbowed party saying it would be a meeting of "friends of unconditional support for the massacre" in Gaza. France has the largest Jewish population in Europe but has had a long history of anti-Semitism, most notably in World War II with the collaborationist Vichy regime. 

My Comment:

This is a somewhat encouraging sign that most people in France are against the wave of anti-Semitism hitting the world right now. Regardless of the actions of Israel, which I feel are mostly justified by the actions of Hamas, it's not right to blame all Jews for the actions of the Israeli government. It's good to see that France is at least trying here. 

What is bizarre to me is that much of the article was bashing Marine Le Pen and her National Front Party. Unlike the far left, they actually showed up and denounced anti-Semitism. The party did have a history of not liking Jews but that is in the past now and they are doing the right thing now. Given that the far right does indeed have a problem with anti-Semitism, they should be getting praise for this, not being attacked for showing up.

You would think that the far left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon, who refused to participate in the march and said it was a celebration of a supposed "massacre" of Hamas, would be the one getting attacked in the media but apparently they get a pass because their politics are leftist. Indeed, the far left has always had a soft spot for Palestinian terrorists and their whole worldview forgives the actions of evil people as long as they are "oppressed". 

The elephant in the room is of course that France has imported millions of Muslims, many of which hate the Jews. Not all of them do but it is a very common thing. And I don't think this march will do a thing to convince them to not do so. 

Indeed, I am kind of amazed that this march ended so peacefully. I would have thought for sure that either Muslim extremists or the far left would have caused a fight but given the heavy police presence perhaps they were afraid to? Maybe they thought it would be bad optics for them? 

Regardless, it's crazy how bad things are going right now. Though I still think Israel has a lot of sympathy and people are sick and tired of anti-Israel protests, it's clear that the people that against Israel are really against Israel. They also don't make the distinction between Jews and the Israeli government. I am kind of amazed that there hasn't been more violence then there has been. I still expect a major terror attack to happen, just based on history. 

The White House says that they have gone through 96% of their Ukraine money.

 

National Security spokesman John Kirby. Newsweek/Getty.

The White House says that they have gone through 96% of the money allocated for Ukraine. Newsweek. Congress gave the White House $60 billion and they have gone through most of it. Last month Joe Biden requested $106 billion for Ukraine, Israel and Gaza aid but the request has stalled out. $61 billion of that would have gone to Ukraine. Congress has not agreed to any deal with new House Speaker Mike Johnson saying that any funding for Ukraine would require money for the US border as well. The White House also admitted that Ukraine's offensive did not go well and that aid packages have been getting lower in order to preserve the money that is left. Polling shows that support for sending money to Ukraine is fading. 

My Comment:

It's seeming more and more likely that Ukraine will not be getting any more money from the United States. Though many in congress are still supportive of the war, they are starting to want to have their own priorities addressed as well. Even Lindsey Graham, one of the biggest neocons in the Senate, is saying he won't send money to other countries if our border isn't secured. 

I will not vote for one dime for any country, including Israel, until we secure our own border. pic.twitter.com/ZCfmU0L4Km

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) November 9, 2023

To get funding for Ukraine the White House and the Democrats would have to give something in return to the Republicans. And I can't see them doing it. The Democrats want the border to remain open and I think they want it even more than they want funding for Ukraine or Israel. 

And Republicans? Many of them aren't onboard for the Ukraine adventure anymore. I think there would be enough votes to pass a standalone Ukraine bill but there is opposition there and the Democrats seem to have zero interest in passing bills one at a time. And they know they have leverage here and will likely demand a price that the Democrats aren't willing to pay. 

Of course at this point I don't think that money for Ukraine would do anything but prolong the war. Ukraine's summer offensive has failed and failed badly. They have taken horrific casualties and barely took any territory back. And Russia itself has launched a counteroffensive that has taken back land and turned the stronghold city of Adviika into an artillery cauldron. 

Even the Ukrainians admit that the problem is no longer funding and weapons, it's the fact that they just don't have the manpower anymore and they have been reduced to drafting old men and young woman, a sure sign that things aren't going well. 

The difference additional funding would make is that the war would end later instead of sooner. Ukraine is heading to a collapse and the best America can do at this point, short of nuking Russia or otherwise joining the war, is holding it off for awhile. If supporting Ukraine was ever in our interests, and I would say it never was, it isn't anymore as we are just throwing good money after bad... 

Iran backed Houthi rebels in Yemen shoot down US MQ-9 Reaper drone.

 

File photo of an MQ-9 Reaper. BBC/EPA.

Iran backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have shot down an US MQ-9 Reaper drone. BBC. The Houthis were involved in a brutal civil war in Yemen and have attacked Saudi Arabia, but have now changed their focus to attacking Israel. Last month a US destroyer intercepted a drone and missile strike from Yemen. The incident shows that US troops in the region are at risk from Houthi rebels, which has been confirmed by the shoot down. The attack on the drone has increased tensions and fears that the Israel-Gaza conflict could become a regional war. 

The Houthi Terrorist Organization in Yemen has released Footage showing their Shoot Down of a U.S. Air Force MQ-9A “Reaper” Surveillance Drone earlier today over the Red Sea using what is now believed to have been a 2K12 “Kub” Surface-to-Air Missile System. pic.twitter.com/NcNKEi1Etn

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) November 8, 2023

My Comment:

This is a fairly disturbing development as it is pretty obviously an act of war against US forces in the region. Though nobody was killed in this incident it might draw a response from the United States that could involve an attack on the Houthi rebels. 

Indeed, a similar shootdown in 2019 almost lead to a war with Iran. President Donald Trump canceled the attack at the last minute, since he didn't want to start a war and also didn't want to kill people over a drone, but I don't think we will get lucky again this time. Biden isn't half the president Trump was and he desperately needs a war to get bad economic news out of the headlines. There is a real chance that he could launch an attack. 

The problem is that the Houthi rebels are actually a very tough opponent. The Houthis have been supplied with weapons from Iran for years. They have advanced missiles, drones and even ballistic missiles that have the range to strike Israel and have been used to attack them. They apparently have air defenses as well. 

Both our ships and planes are at risk from strikes from Houthi rebels. The good news is that our forces have proven they can defend themselves against attacks by Houthis, like the USS Carney did last month. We would have a good chance at defending our ships if they were attacked, but it would only take one missile getting through do damage or even destroy a ship. 

Our planes are vulnerable as well. If they can destroy one of our drones they could kill some of our manned planes as well. Supposedly the stealth technology of our F-22's and F-35's would protect them but what about our older planes? And if one of our planes does get shot down and the pilot gets captured? Then I don't expect we would be able to get that pilot back... 

Biden wants to distract from his failures as a President but a war with the Houthis might compound them. If we lose planes, or God forbid, a ship, it will backfire on Biden dramatically. And I don't think people are ready for a war over Yemen, of all places. Most people don't even know where Yemen is, let alone who the Houthis are. 

I do think this means that the war between Israel and Gaza will draw in more players. If we attack Yemen, I think Iran would be forced to respond. They could step up their attacks in Syria against our forces there, though given they have been attacking them almost every day now I don't know how much more they could do. More concerningly they could order Hezbollah into the war, which would dramatically increase the danger of the war.

But I think the even bigger threat is that Biden could attack Iran directly. That would be incredibly dangerous and could even lead to World War III. I don't think that would happen, but a new war with Iran would be incredibly dangerous and would probably cause an economic collapse for the world. And Joe Biden is the absolute last person to be dealing with it. 

Still, it's also possible that this all blows over. The US Media is mostly ignoring the story and I don't think it's even trending on X. And, like I said, the last major shootdown of a US drone didn't actually result in a war, even if tensions got higher for a bit. Time will tell what happens and though I don't have much hope of cooler heads prevailing. I think we will see some violence here... 

Taiwan is now being directly armed by the US Taxpayer...

 

Chinese warships including the frigate Yulin and the minesweeper Chibi. BBC/Getty. 

The United States is stepping up efforts to arm Taiwan and is arming the country "to the teeth". BBC. Taiwan has been given $80 million for the purchase of US weapons. However, unlike previous sales to Taiwan the US taxpayer is paying for this grant under the foreign military finance program. The move has angered China as they say it legitimatizes the claim that Taiwan is an independent state, though the US says that their "one China" policy has not changed. Taiwan has fallen behind China militarily and are also sending two battalions of troops to the United States for training, for the first time since the 1970's. Taiwan has a need for modern tanks, missiles and, especially, air defenses. Taiwan has also been shocked by the Ukraine war where it shows their artillery systems would be woefully inadequate against modern artillery. 

My Comment:

Great, another country we have to fund. We are already funding an entire war in Ukraine and we are now helping Israel in Gaza as well. At some point enough is enough and that line might be Taiwan. It will probably take billions of dollars to properly arm and train Taiwan to the point where they could actually fight off China. Money we really don't have. 

One also has to wonder where these arms are going to come from. We have shipped so many of our weapons to Ukraine there is little left in the coffers. And now we have to supply Israel as well! America's arms production can't keep up with the demand there is already, let alone if we have to fun Taiwan too. 

The biggest problem is air defenses. We have long run out of those weapons a long time ago after sending them to Ukraine. They have tried to step up production but those weapons won't be ready for a long time. And the Ukraine war has shown how overrated American air defenses are, Russia currently has air superiority over Ukraine. 

The article also made it sound like Taiwan troops are unmotivated and poorly trained. That is why they are getting trained in the United States. But the problem is the fact that American combat doctrine has been shown to be outdated in Ukraine as well. It depends on air and artillery superiority and that doesn't seem likely for Taiwan in a war with China. 

Of course, China has huge problems for any invasion or blockade of Taiwan as well. An amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be a huge problem for China, even if their military is more modern then they used to be. They would also have to find a way to deal with the US Navy which would not be easy. 

Still, if a war comes now would be the time to do it. America is distracted by two wars and major domestic problems. Many people would not even want to fight for Taiwan even though the strategic reasons there are lot more valid than in Ukraine and Israel. And the longer China waits the more troops get trained and weapons get delivered to Taiwan. 

As for me, I just wish we weren't spending tax dollars on Taiwan. I don't mind selling them weapons and possibly loaning them money, but I do not approve of us sending weapons to them directly, same with Israel. I am opposed to even selling weapons to Ukraine, but that's another issue. We just don't have the money to keep spending like this when our own people are suffering so. 

 

Jewish man dies during anti-Israel protest after he was hit on the head by a pro-Palestine protester.

 

Screencap showing the man before he died. FoxLA/social media.

A 65 year old Jewish man has died after being hit in the head with a megaphone at an anti-Israel protest. FoxLA. The man, identified on social media as Paul Kessler, was carrying an Israeli flag during the protests. He was confronted by another man who then hit him with a megaphone, causing him to fall down and hit his head on concreate. Video showed two people, including a anti-Israel protester, trying to help him. He was still alive at that point but died in the hospital shortly later. The incident happened in Westlake Village, a suburb of Los Angeles. 

My Comment:

This is a breaking news story, so as always, information could change as the story develops. As of right now we have very little information to go on how this incident started or why it happened. Things could change rapidly as this incident unfolds.

What I do know is that I have been predicting something like this happening since the war started. Tensions are way too high right now and people are very upset. Sooner or later someone would lose their cool and attack someone and this time it was a 65 year old man. 

I'm not a lawyer and am not super familiar with the laws in California but under Wisconsin laws this would have been manslaughter. The intent was likely not to murder, but it's the same as someone throwing a punch in anger and the victim dying. Even if this was mutual combat, it would still be manslaughter. And I doubt there is any case for self defense here since no reasonable person would think an unarmed 65 year old man was a threat to life or limb. Without seeing the video we can't know for sure, but I haven't seen anything that indicates otherwise. 

I do think it was unwise to try and counter-protest an anti-Israeli rally. I don't want to blame the victim but the chances of getting attacked were far higher than I would accept. I do support free speech and the right to protest but one does have to wonder how wise it was to do so. Then again, it does take a bit of bravery to take on these protesters. 

It will be interesting to see how the reaction to this will play out. When Heather Heyer died at the Unite the Right protest in Charlottesville it was international news for weeks. This incident though? I am guessing it won't have the same impact, but the Jewish community will do what they can to amply it. It will likely turn into a story only seen in right wing outlets and relatively uncensored social media sites like X. 

Pages from transgender Nashville shooter Audrey Hale's manifesto leak showing her motivation to be hatred of white people.

 

Screenshot from Louder With Crowder. 

Pages from transgender Nashville shooter Audrey Hale's manifesto have leaked showing her motivation to be hatred of white people. Fox 17. The pages have been confirmed to be authentic. Hale shot and killed six people including three children and three teachers at Covenant school before being killed by police. In her manifesto she said her victims were "crackers" and "faggots" with "white privilege". Hale herself was white and claimed to be a female-to-male transgender. Hale also wrote  "Can't believe I'm doing this, but I'm ready... I hope my victims aren't." The manifesto had been part of a legal battle as many people did not want to see the writings released. It is unclear how the documents were released, they ended up in the hands of right wing commentator Steven Crowder. An investigation has been opened into discovering who leaked the images, and Nashville police say the photos were not taken as part of the investigation. 

Steven Crowder's report can be found here. 

My Comment:

There were questions if these pages were authentic since they were released via Steven Crowder. Crowder is a pundit and though I am not aware of him making things up, he's a commentator, not a journalist. Why they were released to him instead of a more journalistic outlet is a mystery. Perhaps more journalistic outlets are 

Fox 17 is a legit news outlet and they have confirmed the manifesto is authentic. And given the absolute temper tantrum the Nashville mayor and the police have had over this, I would say it's pretty obviously real. The fact that a Nashville police vehicle is visible and the pictures appear to be have taken in a police vehicle I would say a cop took these photos themselves and then leaked them to Crowder. 

As for the manifesto itself, it seems pretty clear why people didn't want it released. Hale appears to have gone all in on the current diversity narrative that white people are the cause of all bad things and she wanted to punish them for existing. She was an out and out racist, it's just that in this case the people she hated were white children. According to diversity ideology it's not possible to be racist against white people, but it's pretty obviously that isn't the case. 

What is bizarre is the fact that she hates people that are like her. She called the people she targeted "faggots" despite being LGBT herself. If we take her gender transition seriously, she considered herself a man, a man that was attracted to, and obsessed with, another woman. So she was also insulting herself. She was also a white woman so calling her victims "crackers" as well is just describing herself. 

It seems clear to me that Hale was warped by far-left bigotry and that she hated herself. Part of this is probably due to being transgender, the whole thing with them is not feeling comfortable with their own body. But Hale took it a lot further than just being uncomfortable with her sex, but with her race as well. It's a bizarre pathology that I can't claim to understand, but then I never bought the ideology in the first place. 

What is surprising is that Hale didn't seem to be motivated by her transgenderism. I had always assumed that she hated these children because she blamed them for people not accepting her transgenderism. Instead she seems to be motivated by bog-standard leftism. 

Of course with only three pages released it's possible her motivations are deeper than have been revealed in these pages. These seem like the last three pages she wrote and could just be the ones that the leaker got his hands on. Are the rest of the pages more of the same? Or could her motivations be more complex than first revealed by these pages? Regardless, I do wonder if more pages will be released soon. 

As far as the "debate" goes about releasing the manifesto, I think these pages show why doing so was a good thing. The manifesto seems to show that Hale was a mass shooter that was simply transgender instead of a shooter motivated by being transgender. That distinction is small but somewhat meaningful. If Hale was motivated by leftist race ideology instead of LGBT beliefs then it's important that that narrative gets out there. Hale just appears to be a self hating racist instead of committing a mass shooting to advance transgenderism. 

But it could be that the non-released pages of her journal, and the supposed video she made, could make things a lot clearer. I still think that the manifesto should be released in full. The embarrassing stuff about the woman she was obsessed with (which I am purposely not naming here) could be taken out, while the rest should be shown to people. 

As for the cop that released this, if they are caught they are going to be in serious trouble. They might not care, after all, this should have been released months ago. But I think they will probably lose their job at least, and could even face criminal charges. Not to mention the possibility of lawsuits. And I don't think that it will be that hard to discover who did this, after all, only a few people would have had access to the manifesto. Whoever did this did it at a huge risk and I have to say I respect that.