A new war in Africa? Burkina Faso and Mali say they would help defend Niger if coup is reversed.

 

Protesters near the French Embassy in Niamey Niger. Al Jazeera/Reuters.

Burkina Faso and Mali say that any military intervention in Niger, which had a coup last week, would be a declaration of war. Al Jazeera. The joint statement by both countries also said that they would not support any sanctions against Niger. Niger's presidential guard has removed President Mohamad Bazoum, using rising cost of living and the deteriorating security situation. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a 15 member economic group, has said that the coup was a "hostage situation" and threatened military intervention. Both the United States and France have pulled economic support with France being accused of supporting an attack on the Presidential Palace. Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea have voices support for the coup as all of those countries have had their leadership formed from the coup. 

My Comment:

I haven't been paying too much attention to the coup in Niger since a coup in Africa is hardly uncommon. After all, three other countries mentioned in the report are also ruled by coup plotters. But it looks like that is a mistake as this has the potential to erupt into a regional war. 

Both the ECOWAS alliance, France and the United States are not happy about this coup and there are pretty strong rumors of war. ECOWAS has basically said that a military option. That opinion is not universal as Niger, Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso are also members of the alliance. The four countries in opposition also divide the alliance geographically and are in a position to support each other.

ECOWAS states. WAHO.

France is also another contender for a military intervention. Niger was a former colony of France and has now stopped shipping Uranium to France. That's a strategic problem for France given their nuclear weapons and the fact that France gets 68% of its energy from nuclear power. They absolutely have a reason to intervene if the coup continues and they remain cut off from uranium. 

America too has reason to intervene as Niger was a major partner against ISIS in West Africa and that's over now. Not to mention it's very possible that Russia will be invited to help with their problems against ISIS. The Wagner Group, famous for their battles in Ukraine but also deeply involved in Africa, would be a major show of Russian dominance in West Africa and the Biden administration does not want that. 

Will war happen? I have no idea. I am far from an expert in the region. I am guessing that some kind of military intervention would happen but who and why is still up in the air. It also depends on the comparative strength of ECOWAS and the three to four country alliance opposed to them. 

If a war happens? Well then the immigration crisis in Europe suddenly gets much worse. There would be huge numbers of actual refugees, instead of economic refugees, that would strain Europe's already strained social services. And it's very possible that ISIS and other terror groups could take advantage of the chaos to restart their terror campaign in Europe. In short, nothing good would come from a major regional war in West Africa. But it might happen anyways...