Ron DeSantis. AP.
A spokesman from a Ron DeSantis super PAC admits that "we are way behind" in the polls against GOP frontrunner Donald Trump. Politico. Steve Cortes supported Trump in 2016 and 2020 but joined DeSantis campaign for 2024. Cortes said that Trump was a great debater and that Trump was the "runaway frontrunner". He noted that the polls were a bit tighter in the first four states but DeSantis was still behind by double digits. Cortes noted that if DeSantis doesn't win it would make Trump a better candidate for having a primary.
My Comment:
Ron DeSantis is not doing well at all. Instead of a post announcement bounce, DeSantis has seen his numbers collapse. And the new people entering the race appear to be taking votes away from him, not Donald Trump. Indeed, about the only good thing that can be said for DeSantis at this point is that his non-Trump rivals are doing worse than he is, along with that one bizarre poll out of Wisconsin.
Speaking of that poll, I think it's pretty much nonsense. I don't know anyone around here that supports DeSantis over Trump and I live in Wisconsin. I guess it is possible that for some ungodly reason DeSantis and Trump are tied here but my guess is that the poll is just garbage. Given that every other poll shows Trump with double digit leads I can't imagine that all those other polls are wrong while the one in Wisconsin is wrong.
I do think that Cortes has a point, a contested primary is good for Trump. It does force him to defend his positions and allows him to debate his rivals, which is a major reason why so many people supported Trump in the first place. Trump is a one of a kind politician and he does better when he's out there getting his message out there. Which is a big reason why I think Trump should participate in debates.
But I don't think that DeSantis has any realistic path to the presidency unless Trump literally drops dead. Most Republicans aren't going to forgive him for entering the race in 2024, when he would have been a shoe in in 2028. The only people that do want DeSantis are either never Trump types or establishment types that still believe the only good Republicans are the ones that never fight.
Another major issue for DeSantis is that he hasn't been at all consistent on the Ukraine War. He's made contradictory statement either way, sometimes bashing Putin and Russia but at other times being critical of the war. The flip-flopping is obvious and it's clear he doesn't want to alienate the neocons still remaining in the party while at the same time not alienating the majority of the party that thinks the war in Ukraine is an expensive waste at best or, at worst, one of the worst things America has ever done.
DeSantis campaign has been pretty terrible as well. This incident is not a good sign, if the spokesman of your Super Pac goes off the reservation and not only admits that your chief rival is beating you while at the same time praising him, it's not a good luck. He's also relied on a lot of astroturfed support on Twitter and other social media. The DeSantis shills are so obvious and so insincere that it's not possible to take it seriously. When you have people like Bill Mitchel, who used to worship the ground Trump walked on, now trashing him constantly and endlessly praising DeSantis, it's pretty obvious what is going on. People are getting paid. That can work temporarily at the beginning of a campaign but at this stage it's counterproductive.
It's still very early in the campaign and almost anything could happen, but as of this post, I just can't see DeSantis making it past the first few primary races. He has limited appeal and the GOP base almost sees it as treason to support him. On top of that his campaign has been a mess and I just don't see him with a path...
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