Russia has amassed a huge force of 100,000 troops and 900 tanks to attack Eastern Ukraine.

 

An Ukrainian MLRS. New York Post/Reuters.

Russia has amassed a huge force of 100,000 troops and 900 takes to attack Eastern Ukraine. Politico. Russia is threatening the city of Kupiansk, which served as a logistics hub during the early phase of the war before Ukraine took the city back last year. Ukraine said that the build up is to pull reserves from Ukraine's offensive. The 100,000 troops is similar to what Russia used in Afghanistan when they invaded the country in the 1980's. 

The New York Post reports that the Russian offensive has begun. Ukraine has admitted that the situation near Kupiansk is "complicated" and that Russia is advancing in the region. Both Ukraine and Russia report heavy fighting in the area with Russia claiming to have taken 1.2 miles in the first day. Ukraine reports that the troops fighting there are prison conscripts and may not have the morale to make a major breakthrough. 

My Comment:

It's unclear how significant this buildup and offensive is. If the numbers quoted in the articles are real than Ukraine is outgunned and overwhelmed. 100,000 troops, 900 tanks and 555 artillery systems is no laughing matter, it's a huge force about half the size of the one that invaded Ukraine in the first place. 

The attack will certainly require a response from Ukraine and they will be forced to respond even if it is a feint, though in this case I doubt it. This will draw the reserves that are desperately needed to keep any semblance of an offensive in southern Ukraine and near Bakhmut. Those offensives are not doing well in the first place so this means that the offensive is likely over. 

Will Russia make a major breakthrough? It's possible. Like I said, they have a massive force, it's the Ukrainians that are saying that they have 100,000 troops. If it is true I can't imagine that Ukraine has the firepower to break up such a huge formation of troops. 

The problem is that Russia now faces the same problem Ukraine had during its offensive. It's a lot harder to attack than it is to defend and doing so often results in heavy casualties. I would not be surprised if Russia loses a lot of troops, tanks and weapons in the offensive. 

The good news for the Russians is that they don't face as many problems as the Ukrainians did during their offensive. Unlike the Ukrainians they enjoy air support and an artillery advantage. They are also attacking an area that has not had much time to build up defenses in the area. Russia had a huge amount of time to mine and entrench southern Ukraine, Ukraine has not had anywhere near as long to build up defenses around Kupiansk since they have only retook it since this fall. 

They also have an advantage in the fact that Ukraine's offensive mauled many of their best units equipped with their best gear. Those weapons would have been very useful in fighting against this offensive. 

Another concern I have for Russia is the fact that they might be overextending themselves. They have had major problems with this during the Ukraine war, first near Kiev and then in the Kupiansk region. If they do make a major breakthrough they might not have the troops to defend. 100,000 troops is a lot but if they take a lot of land it could get ugly for them. 

Regardless, this attack is more about the west than Ukraine itself. Support for Ukraine is already wavering due to the poor results from their offensive. If Russia makes a major breakthrough and recaptured Kupiansk it could break support from Ukraine. Already I am hearing rumors that Ukraine was given an ultimatum, make a major breakthrough by November or the support gets cut off. That timeline might be moved up if Ukraine gets defeated here... That could force an end to the war, assuming Ukraine doesn't just collapse entirely.