After five months of brutal fighting the Wagner Group has taken the city of Bakhmut from Ukraine. New York Post. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, made the claim today saying they will hand the city over to Russian troops. Ukraine denies the claims saying there are still troops at the "airplane" area. Bakhmut has been one of the largest battles of the war and both sides committed major forces for control of the city, which has largely been destroyed in the fighting. The city became a symbol for both sides of the war and the loss of the city will be seen as a victory for Russia.
My Comment:
As with all claims about the Ukraine war, this one is disputed. I generally don't buy claims from the Ukrainian side given their history with the truth and the fact that lying about war gains and losses are hugely important for a war that is being funded almost entirely based on results. Is it possible that Ukraine still has a few units near or in Bakhmut? Yes. Does that mean that Russia didn't win the battle? Not by a long shot.
From what I understand Ukraine launched a counterattack on the outskirts of the city that took heavy casualties but was able to push the Russians back enough that Ukraine could evacuate from Bakhmut. Was that the much vaunted Ukrainian 2023 offensive? Possibly. But it didn't accomplish much other than making sure that this defeat was just that and not a rout.
The battle was of questionable strategic value for the Ukrainians. Taking thousands of casualties for five months to defend this city would have been questionable under normal circumstances. It was part of their defensive line but when Russia's main goal at this point in the war is to inflict major casualties on the Ukrainian Army, defending it for this long played into their hands.
The battle was never going to be one that Ukraine could have won. Russia had a massive artillery advantage and that caused tremendous casualties among Ukrainian forces. Since the battle was mostly an artillery duel there was no realistic chance of Ukraine somehow winning the battle. But they also could have not lost as hard as they did, given that they held onto the city long after it was clear it was no longer viable.
Russia got most of what they wanted out of this battle. Bakhmut wasn't much of a strategic asset for them either but the city did provide the opportunity to entrap and destroy many of Ukraine's best troops. Russia lost forces as well but the vast majority of those were expendable Wagner Group mercenaries and not Russia's own forces.
Speaking of Wagner, this was a major victory for them and I wonder if they aren't getting too big for Russia to handle. Yevgeny Prigozhin was quite vocal and critical of the Russian offensive there and has been an annoyance for the Kremlin. Pulling him and his forces off of the line will likely shut him up for awhile and will perhaps end some of his whining.
As for the rest of the war the question becomes where the next major battle will be. For all the talk of a major Ukrainian offensive I just haven't seen any evidence that it is happening anytime soon. Indeed, the troops that survived this battle will need time to rest, recuperate and reorganize after it. And given that Ukraine committed major forces to try and evacuate the city it's possible they have used up the troops they were going to use in the next offensive.
Russia too might want to hold back on an offensive. I am sure that they want to duplicate the success of Bakhmut where they surround and eliminate a large pocket of Ukrainian troops through a cauldron of artillery, but setting one of those up takes a lot of effort and requires a degree of cooperation from the Ukrainians. You would think that the Ukrainians would have learned a lesson from Bakhmut and would attempt to avoid having the situation repeat itself but given that it took them five months to evacuate a doomed city, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a new battle with the same outcome for Russia.
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