Governor Ron DeSantis. USA Today.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is expected to launch a 2024 campaign for the Republican Party's nomination for President next week. USA Today. DeSantis has been running a shadow campaign for months now without formally declaring. He has been making international visits and pushing a platform that may be popular with the Republican base. DeSantis has been knee deep in the culture war as well, which has proven popular as he picks fights with Disney and legislates against DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) programs. DeSantis would enter the race as an extreme underdog as Donald Trump has a commanding lead in almost all polls.
My Comment:
As someone that likes what Ron DeSantis is doing in Florida this announcement is incredibly disappointing. DeSantis has no realistic shot of winning the GOP nomination with Donald Trump in the race. DeSantis would have to do what absolutely nobody has been able to do since Trump decided to run in 2015, take him down, and I don't see how he can do it. His only realistic chance is if Trump has some medical issue, drops out of the race for some reason or, God forbid, dies (which is a possibility for a man of his age).
What is worse is that DeSantis only had to wait until 2028 and he's almost be guaranteed to be the nomination for the Republicans, if not the President himself. Most people who like Donald Trump also like Ron DeSantis but that might not be the case if he tries to attack Trump. Indeed, a lot of people feel betrayed by DeSantis, accusing him of being a tool of the Democrats for running.
DeSantis has another problem too and that is because he is solely focused on the culture war at the expense of other things. This has pros and cons. After all, Glenn Youngkin was propelled to the Governor's office of what was a solid blue state, Virginia, after focusing on the transgender issue in 2021. It's an extremely controversial issue and one that Republicans tend to do well on.
But it is it the defining issue of the 2024 race? I don't think it is now. In all honestly I think the 2024 election will be a referendum on Joe Biden, who is, incredibly, running for another term. When I hear people complain about Biden it's because of what he is doing to the economy, immigration or foreign policy, not because of his wokeness. These are all things that Donald Trump has a major advantage over Ron DeSantis and I think they will have a big impact on the race. After all, people do remember what life was like under Trump and it was pretty good until 2020.
I've also heard from a number of news outlets that DeSantis is not considered to be ready for primetime by many potential supporters. Unlike Trump, he's not much of a media figure and doesn't have the natural charisma that Trump has. Indeed, there's a reason many big donors have said no to backing DeSantis.
I also don't think that there is much of a lane for DeSantis. I get the feeling that a decent portion of his supporters are people that love Trump's policies but hate the man. If that's all that is different than Trump what's the point? Why not just go with the original, especially if DeSantis isn't all that trusted by the GOP base for launching this run?
As for me, I'm all in on Trump for 2024. If DeSantis does get the nomination in 2024 I will vote for him, I'm obviously team "anyone but Biden" but my biggest problem with DeSantis is his constant flip-flopping on Ukraine. He really seems to be trying not to offend the pro and anti Ukraine war crowds but hasn't really committed either way, and I could see him betraying the base on the issue. Trump on the other hand says he will fix the war in a day (which he probably can't do but is the right thing to say). I can't see Trump blundering into World War III like Biden probably will, but I could see DeSantis doing the same thing as he seems afraid to confront the warhawks in his party. As long as that is the case I won't be supporting him in the primary.
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