Drone attack on Moscow called an assassination attempt by Russia.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin and a screengrab from the attack. Fox News/AP.

A drone attack on Moscow is being called an assassination attempt by Russia. Fox News. Two drones were used in the attack but did no damage with Russia claiming they were disabled by Russian defenses. Putin was not present during the attack but vowed retaliation against the "terrorist attack". The United States and Ukraine denied responsibility for the attack. The attack is largely seen as a failure. 

KREMLIN DRONE ATTACK

- Russia says two Ukrainian drones attacked Kremlin overnight

- Drones downed with no victims or material damage to the Kremlin

- Moscow says it was a terrorist attack and attempt on Putin's life

- Russia says it reserves right to respond when and how it… pic.twitter.com/loZA6c3Fvd

— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) May 3, 2023

Ukraine attempted a drone strike on the Kremlin, targeting Vladimir Putin. It failed. pic.twitter.com/4KyNh1k6bw

— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) May 3, 2023

My Comment:

Despite the obvious and, quite frankly, pathetic failure of this attack it has the potential to massively escalate the Ukraine War. So far cooler heads had prevailed but that doesn't change the fact that this was an attempt to kill the President of Russia and damage the capitol. That it failed matters less then the fact that it happened in the first place. 

The blame game for the attack is ongoing, everyone is blaming everyone else. Right now it's hard to rule anything out though I'm generally less sympathetic to the Ukrainian position. Russia certainly didn't need to do a false flag on themselves to justify their actions in Ukraine, they already feel justified to invade. It's possible I suppose it seems very likely since Russia has pretty much zero motive to do this. But then again, nobody died in the attack and no actual damage was done. 

Ukraine is the most likely suspect but it's possible the government honestly didn't know about it. It's very possible that hardliners in the Ukrainian military conducted the attack without the permission of Zelenskyy or his United States handlers. I do think that Zelenskyy does not have full control of his military and hardliners are stupid enough to do this by himself. 

It's also possible that this was an American operation. That would be utterly insane and a valid casus belli for the Russians to launch a nuclear war against us but the warmongers in the Biden administration does not care. They know they need to make it look like Ukraine is actually winning the war and this attack could have done so, assuming it hadn't been a total failure. 

The best option is that it was an official operation from the Ukrainians. Given that Zelenskyy isn't even in the country it would make a lot of sense because he's safe from retaliation at the moment. Plus Ukraine already had a commentative stamp all ready to go. And according to the leaks from the Pentagon they already had to be talked out of attacking Moscow earlier in the year. They have motive, means and opportunity to conduct the attack and they are my most likely suspect. 

It could be a third party though. There are many groups that would benefit from an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war and there are many terror groups out there that have drone technology. I find this pretty unlikely though as that kind of operation is probably beyond the power of most terror groups. Maybe ISIS could have done so during the height of their power, but today? And if not them then who? Anti-government Russians? Disgruntled civilians? Some terror group we never heard of? It all seems unlikely. 

It's unclear if the drones were shot down or if they were detonated over their targets. The videos don't make it clear but the drones were certainly not taken done by a missile. If they were able to get there without facing any air defenses it does call into question to Russian air defenses, but to be fair, I don't know of a country that has solved the drone problem yet. 

So what happens next? Well it does seem like we avoided World War III for the moment. Zelenskyy is out of the country so he will remain alive for the moment, assuming Russia even wants to kill him. I am guessing that Russia will, for the moment, keep doing what it is doing. 

What does scare me is that Ukraine will try something like this again. This attack was more of a test of concept and a morale boost than an actual assassination attempt. But what if they take what they learn from this attack and try it again and this time succeed? Then it could be World War III.