Mike Pence and Chris Christie to announce GOP candidacies next week.

 

Former Vice President Mike Pence. NBC News/Getty.

Former Vice President Mike Pence will announce he is running for the GOP race for President next week. NBC News. Pence will make the announcement in Iowa and will visit all 99 counties of the critical early voting state. Pence is most well known as being Donald Trump's Vice President and it is unclear how he expects to beat his former boss. However, Pence has policy differences with Trump, most notably being a hawk on the Ukraine war. 

Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will also announce his candidacy next week. NBC News. Christie was a failed 2016 candidate, but has declared that he will run again. Christie has had a complicated relationship with Donald Trump, endorsing him in 2016 and helping with debate prep in 2020, but has been critical of Trump since then. It is unclear where Christie will find a lane as his favorability among republicans is extremely low and barely has any support in polling. 

My Comment:

More also rans entering the race. Pence at least has some credibility being a former Vice President but Chris Christie has zero chance. Given that Trump consistently has double digit leads, sometimes as high as 20 to 30 points, I don't see how either candidate thinks they have a chance against him. And if something bizarre, disastrous or diabolical happens to Trump, they would still have to somehow take out Ron DeSantis, who is the clear #2.  

Pence might have had a chance at a presidential run before the events of January 6th. The vast majority of people consider his actions that day to be at best disloyal and at worst to be outright treason. Had he stood tall and stopped the certification, it's very possible that Trump would be president right now and the absolute horror that has been the Biden administration would never have happened. 

But Pence has policy problems as well. Unlike Trump and, supposedly, DeSantis, Pence is all in on the war in Ukraine. Given that the war has been a major failure to this point and has done nothing but kill a bunch of innocent people, devastate the economy and bring us closer to nuclear war, all at a time that the billions of dollars we are wasting there could be used on any of America's massive problems. As far as I am concerned that disqualifies Pence from the race. 

As for Chris Christie, is this a joke? He has zero chance of winning. Nobody like Chris Christie. What lane does he have? Pro-gun control Republicans? People that don't like Trump but want a scandal ridden idiot to take his place? I don't see him having any path to the White House at all. And I personally think that this is a ploy for him to get book deals and speaking appearances. 

At least Pence has an outside chance. With Christie he has flip flopped so much on Trump that both Trump supporters and Trump opponents can't trust him. And I can't see why anyone would support him on policy, Christie is to the left of Trump and possible to the left of Democrats like RFK Jr. and Joe Manchin. He's a huge RINO and not someone I would vote for unless he was literally the only choice between him and Joe Biden. 

I do think that Pence and his run are genuine and it will be interesting to see how he will deal with the race. I don't see him as being the kind of attack dog that can take someone like Trump down, or even Ron DeSantis. He's too much of a mild mannered guy to really do any damage to anyone and I don't know what his strategy will be. 

As for Christie I think his actual goal will be to attack Trump. Christie is an OK debater and has been used in the role before. He doesn't actually have a chance at taking Trump down but I am betting that Christie is hoping that he can damage Trump enough that DeSantis can beat him. Still, that's an extreme longshot and if Christie does damage to anyone it's likely to be one of the other also rans. 

The state of the field in 2024 is fairly stupid. I don't think any of the candidates can even hope to approach Trump's domination of the candidacy. Trump's essentially an incumbent and voters need an extremely good reason to get rid of one. Right now the only reason anyone can think of is just not liking Trump personally, and that's not anywhere near good enough. 

The Democrats only have themselves to blame for this. Had they not prosecuted Trump over nonsense, the GOP base might not have rallied around him after he was arrested. Indeed, DeSantis saw his poll numbers crater after that happens, to the point where I thought it was idiotic to enter the race. Attacking Trump doesn't damage him when it comes from the Federal Government, it just makes him more popular. 

Wave of drones hits Moscow in unsuccessful strike.

 

Map showing the locations of the attacks. BBC. 

A major drone attack targeting Moscow has caused limited damage but is also a major escalation in the war. BBC. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Ukraine launched the attacks to terrorize Moscow civilians but air defenses adequately dealt with the attack. Three drones were taken out by electronic countermeasures while five were shot down, according to Russia. The drones were shot down over civilian suburbs and may have been targeting Putin's residence. The attack comes after an attack in May targeting the Kremlin. Ukraine has denied responsibility for the attack and has come under heavy drone strikes themselves. 

My Comment:

This attack is a fairly major escalation in the war. Sure, there was the minor drone attack targeting the Kremlin earlier in the month, but that at least was a legitimate military target. Targeting a civilian neighborhood, even one where high ranking officials live, is something very different. 

With that being said, this attack was a fairly embarrassing failure. I don't think I believe Russia's claims that they shot down all the drones, though it is plausible. Russia does have good air defenses but these drones are very small and hard to defend against. Even if they didn't though, the attack didn't accomplish anything. A few buildings got damaged and nobody got killed. 

Compare that to recent Russian strikes against Ukraine and it's no comparison. Russia has done severe damage to Ukrainian forces, indeed, this strike was in retaliation for an attack on Ukraine's Intelligence Service HQ, according to Russia. Russia has also blown up airfields and ammo dumps in recent days and even damaged one of the Patriot batteries that was sent to the country. 

Still, this is an escalation and I am not sure how Russia will respond. Ukraine is losing the war, and pretty obviously, but they can do damage like this occasionally. They then cheekily deny it even though it's obvious that such an attack would have to be approved by someone high up the chain. Russia has mostly refrained from targeting Ukraine's higher ups or their infrastructure but that could always change. I have said for a long time that Russia was fighting this war with one hand behind their back and that could and should change. 

This war is showing both the limitations and usefulness of drone warfare. Drones are extremely useful when they work but both sides are putting up countermeasures. Supposedly thousands of drones have been shot down during this war. But it also shows that drones can give militaries capabilities they otherwise wouldn't have. Ukraine wouldn't be able to strike Moscow at all without drones, but now they have that capability. 

Bus driver fired after shootout in Charlotte.

 

Screengrab from the shootout. New York Post. 

A bus driver was fired after a shootout with a passenger in Charlotte North Carolina. New York Post. Omarri Shariff, 20, got into an argument with driver David Fullard because Shariff wanted to be let off between stops. Shariff said he was going to "pop your ass" to Fullard and pulled out a handgun. Fullard pulled his own handgun out and fired at Shariff and followed him outside, shooting several more times. Both Fullard and Shariff were wounded in the shootout. Shariff was charged with assault with a deadly weapon, making threats and illegally carrying a concealed weapon. As of this writing Fullard has not been charged but has been let go from his job for carrying a concealed weapon. Fullard's attorney said that many drivers for the Charlotte Area Transit System (CATS) are afraid of being assulted on the busses with several being assaulted, shot at and at least one being killed.

My Comment:

Continuing yesterday's theme of people doing the right thing and then being punished by their company for it, Fullard is getting punished for saving his own life. It seems very clear that Shariff was willing and able to kill Fullard and shooting at him saved Fullard's life. 

Was it a justified shooting? It seems obvious that the initial exchange where both parties were shooting through the glass was fine. Plus the shots as Shariff was fleeing the bus seem justified as well. But the last shot after Shariff had fled and both parties were outside? If Fullard gets into legal trouble that might be the sticking point. I'm not an expert on North Carolina gun laws so I am not sure if the shooting was good or not. 

Regardless, Fullard has yet to be charged and CATS fired him before anything happened. I personally think that is disgusting. Sure, it was against their regulations for him to carry but those regulations are a joke and this shooting is a major reason why. Would Fullard even be alive if he hadn't been armed? Given that he was already wounded in the shootout it's very possible. The plexiglass between him and the shooter offered some protection but regardless, he could have been wounded worse than he was or even killed. 

I also don't buy the argument that Fullard should have just let Shariff off the bus. It barely looked like Fullard had time to do so regardless before Shariff pulled his gun. And it's not clear at all that Shariff would not have opened fire if he had been let off the bus early. He went to zero to 100 very quickly so it's possible that anything other than immediate compliance would have allowed Fullard to avoid this shooting. 

Hell, the only argument that I could see for firing Fullard is the fact that he crashed the bus and even that is understandable under the circumstances. It's pretty hard to stay on the road while engaged in a shootout and it's still impressive that Fullard only went up onto the sidewalk and not crashing into a building or something. 

Regardless, the real problem is that crime is so out of control that people are getting into shootouts in buses in the first place. When crime is this out of control is it any wonder why a bus driver would be carrying a gun? I doubt that this was Shariff's first encounter with criminal behavior so why was he out and about? And why was he so emboldened that he thought he could murder a bus driver because he had the temerity to not let him off the busy early? Until those questions are answered we will probably see more bus drivers getting attacked like this? 

Lululemon employees fired after chasing robbers out of an Atlanta store and calling the police.

 

One of the suspects in the robbery. Fox Business. 

Two Atlanta Lululemon employees fired after calling police on robbers and chasing them out of the store. Fox Business. A manager and employee were present when three men began stealing clothing from the store. The two confronted the men and followed them out of the store, which was enough to get them fired. The suspects had looted the store multiple times in the past months. Lululemon said that their policy is to not follow robbery suspects.  

My Comment:

It's absurd how out of control crime has gotten these days. Why three black men would steal from Lululemon, which seems to be marketed to middle aged white women, is beyond me. I mean, they are obviously selling what they stole but who on earth would buy from them? 

It's also absurd that the employees were fired over this. They walked outside to try and get the plate number so that these criminals could finally be arrested and it cost them their jobs. I know corporate wants to avoid any possible liability of a potential injury to the employees and the criminals, but this is idiotic. Given that these thugs have gotten away with robbing this store multiple times, pretty soon the amount that has been stolen would outweigh any lawsuit. 

What is shocking to me is just how blatant this robbery is, and it's not even anything new. These criminals know they can get away with it. And why? Because even the mild actions that these employees was punished, rather severely. These criminals will never face any consequences for their actions, but the employees sure were. They did the right thing but they lost their jobs. 

In a sane world someone would have tackled these guys and held them for police. Or shoot them dead. But we don't live in a sane world. We live in a world where criminals are allowed free reign to steal and cause mayhem as much as they want. 

The other solution is heavier policing but that again is apparently not an option. Even in places that have the money to hire cops, which is not something most of the country can say, much of the country refuses to deal with crime. Black Lives Matter has taken over many prosecutors offices and mayoral offices and that means that they will refuse to deal with the issue. They essentially believe that all law enforcement against criminals is racist and as long as they are in charge the problem will remain. 

Sooner or later enough will be enough. People are getting sick of crime and so are these corporations. It's why so many stores are shutting down in lawless cities like San Francisco. If Republicans are smart they will make crime a major focus of their 2024 election because this stuff simply can't be allowed to continue like this. Eventually criminals have to get punished again. 

Mass shooting and stabbing leaves four people dead in Japan.

 

Police standing near the scene of the shooting. BBC/Getty.

A mass shooting and stabbing in Nagano Japan has left four people dead. BBC. The attacker stabbed and killed a woman with a 12 inch blade. He then shot and killed two police officers with a hunting rifle. Another elderly woman was also killed though it is unclear about the circumstances about that killing. The suspect was the son of the city assembly speaker and was holed up at his father's house before surrendering to police. It is unclear how the attacker was able to get a hunting rifle. Gun violence is relatively rare but mass attacks like this do happen in Japan, along with the notable assassination of former Prime Mister Shinzo Abe. 

My Comment:

Japan has one of the most restrictive gun control regimes in the entire world yet this guy was able to kill four people. One was killed with a knife while two cops were killed with a hunting rifle. We aren't sure how the other person died but regardless, it shows that these kinds of attacks can happen anywhere in the world. Gun control is obviously not the answer as Japan has among the strictest gun control in the world and this still happened. 

Most attacks in Japan are mass stabbings, some of which, due to unprepared police, end with double digit kill counts. But even though guns are rare they do have shootings as well. It's unclear how the attacker in this case got a firearm but he did. And there is little to stop people from building their own firearms like the assassin of Shinzo Abe. 

It's unclear why these attacks happen. Japan has a very different, high trust society but they still have a mass killing problem, just like the United States. Indeed, it seems like every country has these kinds of attacks. If you don't pay close attention to international news you would completely miss this. Which is what the media wants of course. 

It seems like this attacker stopped his attack because he wanted to. He was still armed when he surrendered and could have tried to kill more people but he did not. It's unclear why he would stop killing after he began but perhaps he ended up feeling guilty. 

Motive is just as much as a mystery. Police say he killed the first women because he "wanted to". What do you even do with that? I guess some people are just evil and want to see other people die. In the end though the motive hardly matters, it's the fact that four people are dead. 

Wagner chief said the mercenary company suffered heavy casualties in Bakhmut.

Wagner fighters in Bakhmut. RT/Sputnik. 

The head of the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary company, said that they lost 20,000 fighters during the battle of Bakhmut. New York Post. Yevgeny Prigozhin made the remarks and said that half of the dead were professional mercenaries while the other half were prison conscripts. Ukraine says that they are still contesting the city. 

RT has more information on the story. In addition to the deaths suffered in Bakhmut, Prigozhin said that 20% of his forces were also wounded. But he also said that Ukraine took massive casualties with 50,000 dead and another 50,000 to 70,000 wounded. 

My Comment:

This is another example of how dishonest the media is about Ukraine. The New York Post article had no information about how many casualties the Ukrainians took, which is fairly critical information. Russia suffered 20,000 deaths and more wounded but the claim is also that Ukraine suffered 50,000  dead and another 50 to 70,000 wounded. That paints a much different picture about the outcome of the battle than the one that the New York Post made. 

Of course just because Yevgeny Prigozhin made this claims that doesn't mean we have to believe them. He has reasons to lie about this that go beyond making Russia look good. Indeed, Prigozhin has been fairly critical of the war lately and has accused Russia of not trying to win. Some of that was deliberate disinformation, the idea that Russia was out of artillery was a trap that drew Ukraine into the trap that left them with heavy casualties.  

I tend to believe Prigozhin though. These numbers are embarrassing for all parties involved. Russia doesn't want to admit that Wagner was used as cannon fodder and took heavy casualties. Ukraine doesn't want to admit that they took even more heavy casualties. And it make sense that Russia would have taken dramatically less casualties than Ukraine did in this battle given the massive advantage in artillery that Russia had. 

This does show how cold Russia can be here. They used Wagner as cannon fodder for the most part, sending prisoners into conflict and it worked out. Losing 10,000 prisoners and 10,000 mercenaries is not a big deal for them. It's just like what they did during the battle of Mariupol, but this time mercenaries instead of Chechens. 

Still, if these numbers are true it does show how much of a victory it was for Russia. Not only did they lose very few of their own troops, they took out at least 50,000 Ukrainian troops, casualties that they can hardly afford. And many of the 50,000 to 70,000 wounded will not be coming back to the battlefield anytime soon, if at all. Plus all the equipment and weapons captured and destroyed. 

Hungary's Viktor Orban says Ukraine cannot win the war against Russia.

 

Hungarian Prime Minster Viktor Orban. Bloomberg. 

The Prime Minster of Hungary, Viktor Orban says that Ukraine cannot win the war against Russia. Bloomberg. Orban said in an interview with Bloomberg that Ukraine's military effort was doomed and by continuing to support the war all Europe was accomplishing was causing more deaths. Orban called for an immediate cease fire. Hungary said they will block further aid to Ukraine and further sanctions on Russia from the EU. The statements have come after Ukraine has sanctioned a Hungarian bank for working with Russia. 

My Comment:

Orban is one of the few people actually making sense these days. Though I don't agree with his sympathy for Ukraine, they are just as responsible for the war as Russia is and have committed war crimes. I have very little sympathy for either side in the war. 

But Orban is pretty obviously right. Ukraine cannot defeat Russia and that has been clear for a long time now. The billions of dollars worth of equipment and arms has lead to temporary successes at best and we have long entered the phase of diminishing returns. And it's clear that the war would have ended years ago if it wasn't for the fact that Ukraine has had billions of dollars worth of weapons given to them. 

It's utterly shocking that the Bloomberg article didn't mention the massive Russian victory at Bakhmut. Russia was able to capture the city after months of fighting despite the fact that Ukraine threw everything they had into the city. The fact that they had to evacuate the city with their tail behind their legs should be strong evidence that Orban has a point but of course Bloomberg didn't mention it. 

As for blocking the aid, it make sense for Hungary. Ukraine sanctioned one of their banks and dong so was a huge mistake. Hungary was cool on the war in the first place so punishing one of their banks is a good way to make them want to stop supporting the war. It make sense that Hungary would cut off Ukraine after that, especially since it's clear it's just throwing good money after bad. 

 This, of course, puts Orban at risk. The powers that be view him the same way they viewed Donald Trump. Not as a legitimate leader of a free country but as an enemy to be destroyed. I would not be surprised if they attempt to do what they did to Trump to Orban as well. It's also no wonder that Orban is openly hoping that Trump wins the 2024 race. He's the only candidate that is at all sympathetic to his argument about Ukraine. 

NFL Draft coming to Green Bay Wisconsin...

 

Packers fans in Green Bay. Yahoo/AP.

The NFL Draft is coming to Green Bay Wisconsin, the smallest NFL market in the league. Yahoo Sports. 300,000 fans showed up to the NFL draft his year in Kansas City, which is three times the population of Green Bay, the third biggest city in Wisconsin. Green Bay will have two years to prepare for the draft which is scheduled for April of 2025. Traditionally the draft was held in New York but the league has decided to send it to markets that do not have a realistic chance at hosting a Super Bowl. 

My Comment:

I don't usually cover sports unless there is a political reason to do so but I will make an exception in this case. As you may know I live in this general area and I will absolutely be effected by this. Indeed, it will be a huge deal for not only Green Bay but all of Wisconsin. 

For me personally, I probably won't be attending, since I will probably be working. I've been to Lambeau Field a couple of times and have watched Packer game in person (Brett Favre through five interceptions and lost to the Tampa Bay Bucs). But I am no longer a big fan of football. I might catch a couple of games a season but I don't really watch very often. 

Still, I am pretty happy about this. It will be an economic boom for the hotels, restaurants, casinos, shops and stores in Northeast Wisconsin. There will be a lot of temporary workers that will get some money and there will be good opportunities for overtime for regular workers. 

I do wonder where they are going to put all these people though. Green Bay and its suburbs probably do not have the hotel capacity to handle 300,000 extra people. If you include the Fox Cities to the south and perhaps Milwaukee and Madison as well? Perhaps it will be fine. 

To be fair to Northeast Wisconsin we are able to handle the EAA airshow, AirVenture, in Oshkosh, which is the southernmost of the Fox Cities. That event has 650,000 attendees last year, but there are some caveats to that. EAA has a huge number of people that fly in and camp at Whitman Field and the number is actually lower than 650,000 because it double counts people who show up for more than one day. It's essentially impossible to get a hotel room that week, but I think that means we do have the capacity for the NFL Draft. 

There are other complications for this event as well. Though I think we will be able to handle hotel space, I am not sure how we will handle traffic. As someone who has to drive during the extreme traffic during NFL games at Lambeau I-41 and I-43 can barely handle the traffic that 80,000 fans all leaving the stadium at once. I have no idea what is going to happen with the 300,000 people expected for the NFL draft. Since I will probably working that week, I am not looking forward to the absolute mess we will see on our highways.  

Weather is going to be a major concern. April in Wisconsin is probably our most unpredictable month. This year we had a week where we had 80 degree temperatures for a few days in a row, but in other years we have gotten two feet of snow. It's not uncommon for it to be cold, wet and miserable when this event happens, which will be interesting to see how the NFL handles it. 

Regardless, this is a huge local story for Northeast Wisconsin and I might even blog about it when it happens. Perhaps I should go after all? It might make for a good blog post. Still, it's kind of far away from what I usually cover on this blog... 

61% of GOP primary voters back Donald Trump in recent poll.

 

Donald Trump at a NRA event. The Hill/AP.

61% of GOP primary voters back Donald Trump in a recent Morning Consult poll. The Hill. Trump leads his most formidable primary opponent, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, by a whopping 43 points, with DeSantis only getting 18 % of the vote. Only one other candidate cracked the 5% mark with former Vice President Mike Pence getting 6% of the vote. Pence, like DeSantis, has not officially entered the race yet. Two candidates that have, former governor Nikki Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy earned 4% each. 

The Morning Consult poll can be found here. 

My Comment:

The results of this poll are not at all surprising. Trump is a popular former president who essentially took over the Republican Party and remade it in his image. He has legions of loyal fans and though many people hate him, the ones that love him really love him. Plus he is seen as an underdog and a victim of an out of control government that persecutes people for their political beliefs and for standing up against the system. You would have to have an extremely compelling reason to not support him in 2024 if you are a Republican voter, and, so far, that hasn't happened. 

With the poll numbers it is a wonder why Florida Governor Ron DeSantis appears ready to enter the race. I won't relitigate that post here much, but I will say that I just don't see a lane for him. He's too much like Donald Trump for the anti-Trump wing of the party and the pro-Trump part of the party isn't going to abandon Trump for DeSantis. And, worst of all, DeSantis would have been a shoe-in for 2028 if he had just shown a little patience. 

As for the other candidates, I also don't see much of a path for them. Mike Pence could have been that guy but most Republicans' see him as a traitor or worse for certifying the 2020 election, in a moment when the vast majority of his party would have liked to see him fight. That greatly limits the potential for Pence reaching double digits, plus the comparative strength between him and DeSantis. 

Four other credible candidates were mentioned (along with Texas Governor Gregg Abbott who I don't think will run). Nikki Haley most likely doesn't have a chance and she was hurt by fellow South Carolina resident, Senator Tim Scott joining the race. Neither of them seem like a threat to Trump. And though Vivek Ramaswamy is an interesting person, he strikes me as the GOP's version of Andrew Yang this election cycle. And Asa Hutchinson? Nobody even knows who he is, and the ones that do don't like him for attacking Donald Trump. 

Hilariously, Liz Cheney was mentioned in the poll as well, getting a whopping 2%, well within the poll's confidence interval. No serious Republican wants Cheney to run, let alone win, she's persona non grata in the Republican party and she was kicked out of office quite convincingly. 

Is there any way that Trump isn't the GOP candidate in 2024? There are a couple of ways, none of them good. The first and most likely, sadly enough, is some kind of health issue or even Trump passing away. Trump is not a young man anymore and though he seems healthy and sharp, that could change very quickly for a man of 76. Even more frightening, someone could attack him physically, which has been known to happen to popular American election candidates. 

Without that it would require some kind of miracle for Trump to not be the candidate. Trump has survived everything the mainstream media, the government and even members of his own party have thrown at him since 2015. I don't see how Ron DeSantis and the others could somehow take Trump down when so many others have failed miserably. Even the old career ender, getting caught in bed with a dead woman or a live boy, might not take Trump down, though I don't believe for a second Trump would do something that wrong or stupid. 

Can Trump beat Biden? Well, as far as I am concerned he did once already, it was only the Coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent changes in election law with zero time to prepare that allowed Biden to take office, even ignoring the fairly obvious signs of election fraud. Biden's less popular then ever and it's almost impossible to argue that he's doing a better job than Trump, so if the GOP can make any progress at all at adapting to the new election environment I think he's a lock. But given that Republicans have made a habit of letting Democrats roll over them...  

Fishing: New personal best!

 

As you may know I am a fisherman and this week I have been on vacation. I go back to work soon so I closed out my vacation by doing some fishing with my Dad and we did pretty well. We were going for catfish but mostly struck out with that. I only caught a small juvenile and had zero luck otherwise (I did catch a six pounder last Thursday, but that's neither here nor there). 

We had been catching mostly sheepheads (freshwater drum) when I got a bite on my nightcrawler rig. It was not fighting like a sheephead at all as it was up closer to the surface and even jumped a little bit. When I got it in I saw it was the above smallmouth bass. It wasn't huge or anything, 2.3 pounds around 15 inches, but it's the biggest I have caught! I've only really caught smallmouth bass since last year as I do more river fishing than lake fishing. 

Since I caught the bass I put on a blade bait that I had bought last year but inexplicably left on my kitchen counter since then. On my first cast with the lure I got a hit and I reeled it in. I was expecting another smallmouth but I got something a bit rarer instead!

That is a Sauger. Saugers aren't super common around here but I've caught them before, but it's been ages. You can tell it's a Sauger and not a Walleye or hybrid because the black spots on the dorsal fin and the lack of a white spot on the tail. This fellow was very lucky that I wasn't sure on the regulations on keeping them where I was fishing because I would have loved to have cooked him up! Instead he got released, just like the bass. 

Regardless, it was a nice day of fishing from shore and I am glad I had the opportunity to catch some fish. Fishing has been hit or miss lately and I am glad today was a "hit" day.

 

Russia has taken Bakhmut after five months of brutal fighting.

 

Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary group, in Bakhmut. New York Post/AP.

After five months of brutal fighting the Wagner Group has taken the city of Bakhmut from Ukraine. New York Post. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, made the claim today saying they will hand the city over to Russian troops. Ukraine denies the claims saying there are still troops at the "airplane" area. Bakhmut has been one of the largest battles of the war and both sides committed major forces for control of the city, which has largely been destroyed in the fighting. The city became a symbol for both sides of the war and the loss of the city will be seen as a victory for Russia. 

My Comment:

As with all claims about the Ukraine war, this one is disputed. I generally don't buy claims from the Ukrainian side given their history with the truth and the fact that lying about war gains and losses are hugely important for a war that is being funded almost entirely based on results. Is it possible that Ukraine still has a few units near or in Bakhmut? Yes. Does that mean that Russia didn't win the battle? Not by a long shot. 

From what I understand Ukraine launched a counterattack on the outskirts of the city that took heavy casualties but was able to push the Russians back enough that Ukraine could evacuate from Bakhmut. Was that the much vaunted Ukrainian 2023 offensive? Possibly. But it didn't accomplish much other than making sure that this defeat was just that and not a rout. 

The battle was of questionable strategic value for the Ukrainians. Taking thousands of casualties for five months to defend this city would have been questionable under normal circumstances. It was part of their defensive line but when Russia's main goal at this point in the war is to inflict major casualties on the Ukrainian Army, defending it for this long played into their hands.  

The battle was never going to be one that Ukraine could have won. Russia had a massive artillery advantage and that caused tremendous casualties among Ukrainian forces. Since the battle was mostly an artillery duel there was no realistic chance of Ukraine somehow winning the battle. But they also could have not lost as hard as they did, given that they held onto the city long after it was clear it was no longer viable. 

Russia got most of what they wanted out of this battle. Bakhmut wasn't much of a strategic asset for them either but the city did provide the opportunity to entrap and destroy many of Ukraine's best troops. Russia lost forces as well but the vast majority of those were expendable Wagner Group mercenaries and not Russia's own forces. 

Speaking of Wagner, this was a major victory for them and I wonder if they aren't getting too big for Russia to handle. Yevgeny Prigozhin was quite vocal and critical of the Russian offensive there and has been an annoyance for the Kremlin. Pulling him and his forces off of the line will likely shut him up for awhile and will perhaps end some of his whining. 

As for the rest of the war the question becomes where the next major battle will be. For all the talk of a major Ukrainian offensive I just haven't seen any evidence that it is happening anytime soon. Indeed, the troops that survived this battle will need time to rest, recuperate and reorganize after it. And given that Ukraine committed major forces to try and evacuate the city it's possible they have used up the troops they were going to use in the next offensive. 

Russia too might want to hold back on an offensive. I am sure that they want to duplicate the success of Bakhmut where they surround and eliminate a large pocket of Ukrainian troops through a cauldron of artillery, but setting one of those up takes a lot of effort and requires a degree of cooperation from the Ukrainians. You would think that the Ukrainians would have learned a lesson from Bakhmut and would attempt to avoid having the situation repeat itself but given that it took them five months to evacuate a doomed city, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a new battle with the same outcome for Russia. 

Ron DeSantis expected to announce 2024 campaign next week.

 

Governor Ron DeSantis. USA Today.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is expected to launch a 2024 campaign for the Republican Party's nomination for President next week. USA Today. DeSantis has been running a shadow campaign for months now without formally declaring. He has been making international visits and pushing a platform that may be popular with the Republican base. DeSantis has been knee deep in the culture war as well, which has proven popular as he picks fights with Disney and legislates against DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) programs. DeSantis would enter the race as an extreme underdog as Donald Trump has a commanding lead in almost all polls. 

My Comment:

As someone that likes what Ron DeSantis is doing in Florida this announcement is incredibly disappointing. DeSantis has no realistic shot of winning the GOP nomination with Donald Trump in the race. DeSantis would have to do what absolutely nobody has been able to do since Trump decided to run in 2015, take him down, and I don't see how he can do it. His only realistic chance is if Trump has some medical issue, drops out of the race for some reason or, God forbid, dies (which is a possibility for a man of his age). 

What is worse is that DeSantis only had to wait until 2028 and he's almost be guaranteed to be the nomination for the Republicans, if not the President himself. Most people who like Donald Trump also like Ron DeSantis but that might not be the case if he tries to attack Trump. Indeed, a lot of people feel betrayed by DeSantis, accusing him of being a tool of the Democrats for running. 

DeSantis has another problem too and that is because he is solely focused on the culture war at the expense of other things. This has pros and cons. After all, Glenn Youngkin was propelled to the Governor's office of what was a solid blue state, Virginia, after focusing on the transgender issue in 2021. It's an extremely controversial issue and one that Republicans tend to do well on. 

But it is it the defining issue of the 2024 race? I don't think it is now. In all honestly I think the 2024 election will be a referendum on Joe Biden, who is, incredibly, running for another term. When I hear people complain about Biden it's because of what he is doing to the economy, immigration or foreign policy, not because of his wokeness. These are all things that Donald Trump has a major advantage over Ron DeSantis and I think they will have a big impact on the race. After all, people do remember what life was like under Trump and it was pretty good until 2020. 

I've also heard from a number of news outlets that DeSantis is not considered to be ready for primetime by many potential supporters. Unlike Trump, he's not much of a media figure and doesn't have the natural charisma that Trump has. Indeed, there's a reason many big donors have said no to backing DeSantis. 

I also don't think that there is much of a lane for DeSantis. I get the feeling that a decent portion of his supporters are people that love Trump's policies but hate the man. If that's all that is different than Trump what's the point? Why not just go with the original, especially if DeSantis isn't all that trusted by the GOP base for launching this run? 

As for me, I'm all in on Trump for 2024. If DeSantis does get the nomination in 2024 I will vote for him, I'm obviously team "anyone but Biden" but my biggest problem with DeSantis is his constant flip-flopping on Ukraine. He really seems to be trying not to offend the pro and anti Ukraine war crowds but hasn't really committed either way, and I could see him betraying the base on the issue. Trump on the other hand says he will fix the war in a day (which he probably can't do but is the right thing to say). I can't see Trump blundering into World War III like Biden probably will, but I could see DeSantis doing the same thing as he seems afraid to confront the warhawks in his party. As long as that is the case I won't be supporting him in the primary.  

US made Patriot missile battery damaged in Ukraine...

 

Patriot missile batteries in Poland. Business Insider. 

A US made Patriot missile battery was reportedly damaged or destroyed during an attack on Kiev in Ukraine. Business Insider. Ukraine received three of the launchers from the United States, Germany and the Netherlands just this April. However, the Ukrainians may have already lost the US provided battery in a massive missile raid on Monday night. The Ukrainians claimed to have shot down 18 missiles in the raid, including six of the new Kinzhal hypersonic missiles along with more conventional Kalibr and ground based missiles. Russia claims that Patriot battery was destroyed in the raid by one of the Kinzhal missiles, while the Pentagon says the battery may have been damaged and it is unclear to what extent. 

My Comment:

I do think it was pretty funny that all the NAFO accounts on Twitter were mindlessly parroting the idea that the Ukrainians somehow shot down 18 missiles, including six of the new Kinzhal missiles. I thought that it was ridiculous as soon as I heard it given the low stockpiles of anti-air missiles Ukraine has left and the ineffectiveness of the Patriots against hypersonic missiles. 

Those folks have some egg on their face as even pro-Ukraine outlets like Business Insider and CNN are confirming that the battery was at least damaged. I wouldn't be surprised if it was destroyed completely and I am wondering if the crews operating the missiles managed to survive. 

Not that I take Russian claims at face value either. Neither side of this war has the monopoly on the truth. But I would also say that there is such a thing as a golden mean fallacy so it's not always a good idea to put your prediction in the middle of both claims. Regardless, I tend to give less weight to Ukrainian forces given how blatantly they have lied in the past. Remember the Ghost of Kiev that supposedly shot down the entire Russian Air Force? Because I haven't forgotten that propaganda. 

I think it was pretty clear that entire purpose of the raid was to destroy this battery, or at least take it out of action, and that appears to have succeeded. My guess is that the Russians volley fired their Kalibr and ground based missiles at the area just so the Patriots would launch and they could find the position of the battery, since the Patriots are known to be mobile. Once they had fixed the position and depleted the battery's missiles they sent in the Kinzhals. I am sure that was the strategy even if there is some doubt if it was 100% effective. 

This was a fairly big blow to Ukraine's defenses and even if the claims about them shooting down most of this raid were true, it's not likely to be there in the next raid. And given that Ukraine is rapidly running out of most anti-air weapons it might be the beginning of Russian air dominance. The Russia-Ukraine war has been fairly unique in the fact that neither side was able to gain full air dominance due to the very good anti-air capabilities of both sides. But Ukraine's capabilities are being degraded and three Patriot batteries, now reduced to two, wasn't going to change that in the first place. 

Durham report released and condemns the FBI for their politicized handling of the Trump-Russia investigation.

 

Special consul John Durham. Fox News/Getty.

The Durham report on the politicized handling of the Trump-Russia collusion investigation has been released and it is deeply critical of the FBI's handling of the case. Fox News. Special Consul John Durham found that the FBI failed to uphold their fidelity to the law. The case, known as Crossfire Hurricane lead to the Robert Muller investigation and was centered on supposed links between Donald Trump and Russia. Durham found that evidence exonerating Trump was ignored while the investigation relied heavily on information generated by Trump's political opponents. Durham also found that the investigators in the case did not believe that there was probable cause that the people involved in the investigation were involved with foreign powers. He also found that the Steele dossier, which founded much of the investigation, was false with no corroborating evidence and that the FBI knew it at the time. 

The report can be read here. 

My Comment:

As expected the Durham report found that the FBI was totally out of control when it started its investigation into Donald Trump, an investigation that wasted millions of dollars of taxpayer money and brought a cloud over Donald Trump's first term. It shows that the FBI was biased against Trump and they did not even pretend to be on the side of justice. 

This ended up being very damaging to Donald Trump and his presidency. Even now there are people that still believe that Trump had some connection to Russia and was somehow compromised as a candidate. Even after this investigation cleared him along with the original Muller report. Indeed, the very idea that Trump was involved with Russia wasn't based on anything other than rumor and innuendo, that was known to be false even at the time. 

The investigation into Trump never found anything. Indeed, Trump is probably the most investigated man in world history and if there were any links between Russia and him they would have been found long ago. 

Most of the information in this report was already known to anyone who even had a limited understanding of the topic. Everyone knew that the FBI treated Trump differently than they did to Clinton and the other candidates. Trump was never warned about possible Russian attempts to corrupt him, while Clinton was. 

What was always stunning is that the FBI used political material from Trump's political opponents to justify spying on him. The report found that even the FBI knew that this material was bogus and they also ignored exonerating evidence that would have ended the investigation cold if it had been considered. But it wasn't because the FBI cared more about getting Trump then they did about doing the right thing. 

What is scary about this is that if they could do this to Donald Trump, they could do it to basically anyone. What seems to be the criteria if the FBI investigates you or not is if they like your politics or not. We have seen people like Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton get a free pass for years but they went all in on Trump even though there was no "there" there. Trump had the political power and connections to actually expose this but what chance would you or I have?

The sad thing about this is that nothing will come of it. Sure, Trump will tout this as an exoneration, and rightly so, but nobody in the FBI is going to prison over this. One guy got community service. That's it. And the media that breathlessly covered this scam for years? No punishment whatsoever. Indeed, even now they are trying to downplay this report because it makes them look bad. It's a joke. 

US Army's top enlisted member says soldiers are under enormous strain.

 

File photo of Sergeant Major of the Army Michael A. Grinston. Army Times/US Army photo. 

The United States Army's top enlisted soldier, Sergeant Major of the Army Michael A. Grinston, says soldiers are under enormous strain. Army Times. Despite the end of the war in Afghanistan, US troops are facing a grueling deployment schedule, compounded by low recruitment. Grinston was quoted as saying "we are as busy as we have ever been". The schedule along with low recruitment numbers are forcing the military to do more with less. Compared to the strength of the US Army, counting reserves and National Guard, the force is projected to be 20% smaller than it was in 2022 for the 2024 fiscal year. Troops are still being deployed to Iraq and Syria while the National Guard is being deployed domestically for things like the border crisis and the Coronavirus pandemic. 

My Comment:

A fairly grim assessment from America's top enlisted man. And it paints a pretty clear picture, the United States is not ready at all if a major war were to break out, which it could at any time. Tensions are very high with both China and Russia and if a war were to happen, there is no guarantee that we would be able to win, even assuming the war doesn't go nuclear. 

Part of this is due to the fact that even after the war with Afghanistan ended (in humiliating fashion I might add), our deployments really haven't tampered back. One would be forgiven for not knowing we still have troops in Iraq and Syria, but they are far from the only places US troops are deployed. Indeed, we have troops in many countries in Africa as well. And this is on top of all the domestic deployments the National Guard is dealing with as well. The force is stretched thin. 

But the real problem is recruitment and that is a problem that isn't going to go away under Joe Biden. Much of the problem is the man himself. Nobody wants to fight for a president that doesn't command respect. And much of the recruiting pool is made up of people that Biden denigrates and insults at every opportunity. Imagine fighting and dying at the whim of a senile old hair sniffer like Joe Biden? Why would anyone sign up for that? 

The concentration on just about anything other than warfighting is hurting the military as well. Not only are these diversity and inclusion efforts hurting recruitment they are driving a lot of people that are in the military out. Who wants to serve in a military that hates you because of the color of your skin or because of what's between your legs? Not to mention the inclusion of transgender soldiers that would make any woman think twice about serving. No woman is going to want to share a barracks with a man in a dress. 

The threat of a major peer v peer conflict has to be driving down recruitment as well. There is a real fear that US Troops will be sent into the meatgrinder that is Ukraine. Who wants that? To fight in World War I conditions under constant artillery fire? For a war that has nothing to do with the United States and its interests? At least a war with China would be about our manufacturing interests but even then, who wants to fight and die for Taiwan, of all things? 

I think the biggest problem is that people simply don't believe in the US military, and the country itself, anymore. People were willing to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan because they still believed that America was a serious country. I don't think that is the case anymore and indeed, it seems our country is more concerned about men in drag and global warming than actually improving the lives of their citizens. If America was deploying their troops to defend the borders I think you would see plenty of volunteers. But instead the military is being used for questionable things.

The real question is what happens if a war does break out? I don't think our current military could handle an actual war with Russia or China, and I don't expect there to be a wave of new recruits to replace combat losses. My guess is that suddenly conscription would have to make a serious comeback. 

If a war doesn't break out though we would have to face the fact that a lot of damage has been done to our military under the Biden administration and through the two decades of war that happened due to Iraq and Afghanistan. Our military needs to rest, recoup and reorganize but who knows if that will happen? 

Editor's Note: Vacation.

 

I usually take a vacation in the middle of May and this year is no exception! I will be off all next week so posting may be infrequent or at unusual times. I am not planning on traveling this time so blogging should be semi-normal. 

What I am planning to do is go fishing. May in Wisconsin is a great time to go and right now it's the white bass run so I might try getting a few of those. And there are a few new places I want to try out this vacation that I haven't been to yet. Should be fun. 

Fishing this year has been so much better than last year so far. So far this year I have caught seven species and the first fish I caught in 2023 was a decent sized walleye, though I'm not sure if it counts because I snagged the dang thing. In addition to the walleye, I have caught yellow bullhead, yellow perch, largemouth bass, sheephead (freshwater drum), white perch and bluegill. The white perch pictured above may have been a personal best for me, but I didn't bother ever weighing or measuring white perch to begin with. 

Another thing I might do is go to the gun range. It's been a long time since I have gone and I'm afraid my shooting skills are atrophying. It will depend on how I feel though, the one thing I won't do is go to the range while I am tired. Fatigue and firearms don't mix and right now I'm pretty damn tired. 

I've also got at least one major purchase planned. I've had a small TV for a long time and given the lower prices of decent TV's I'm thinking I might just purchase a new one. I've got the cash for it so why not?

As for blogging, I fully expect to be doing some of that next week as well. It will depend on how busy I get, what happens in the world and how I feel. I don't feel obligated to get a post up everyday when I am vacation, but I generally do enjoy writing them. 

A Virginia judge has struck down the federal ban on purchasing handguns for adults between 18 and 20.

 

File photo of a Glock 17. AP.

A Virginia judge has stuck down the federal ban on purchasing firearms for adults between the ages of 18 and 20. AP. The ruling is one of many that happened in the wake of NYSRPA v Bruen, which greatly restricted laws on the ownership of firearms. The judge said that the restriction was not consistent with other rights and said it made no sense to restrict the right to own handguns while 18-20 year olds could join the military, vote or serve on a federal jury. The judge also said the law failed the Bruen test, which requires a historical framework for the restriction of firearms. The law will not change immediately as the case is already being appealed. 

My Comment:

I have said for awhile now that NYSRPA v Bruen was a much more important Supreme Court decision than Dobbs v Jackson, which overturned federal restrictions on abortion. In the Dobbs case the court merely said that there were no federal protections for abortions, meaning states could make whatever laws they wanted, which they indeed have. Bruen was a lot more restrictive and require a historical framework for gun restrictions. 

The vast majority of gun laws fail the Bruen test. And this is just another example. Banning handgun purchases for 18-20 year olds is a modern degeneracy and was not around when the Founding Fathers wrote the Constitution. Same as similar restrictions on purchasing rifles. Since the restrictions didn't exist back then they cannot do so now. 

I am expecting that the appeal will fail and the federal law will be overturned. Indeed, it's impossible to interpret Bruen any other way. Even the anti-gun shill they quoted in the Associated Press article didn't try to argue it, they just went off about the potential downsides of the law. Even if you were to grant that appeal to consequences, and I absolutely don't, it has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not the case passes the Bruen test. 

Even without the Bruen test I always thought that not allowing 18-20 year olds to purchase handguns was age discrimination. Either someone is an adult at 18 or not. If you can't purchase a handgun then you shouldn't be able to vote, join the military, have sex or do any of the other things you can do as an adult. And if a person is an adult then they can exercise every right adults have. 

I would also say that the anti-gun argument against banning handguns for young adults is the fact that it obviously hasn't worked. They were always able to purchase rifles and shotguns but the vast majority of homicides and shootings committed by that age group is by handguns they got illegally. The vast majority of criminals do not purchase their guns legally, they either steal them, use a straw purchase or get them on the black market. The only people that were banned from these handguns were the people that would follow the law and even then it was perfectly legal to own one at that age if you bought it through a private seller or were gifted one. 

Jeff Dege

More generally I think this is another example of how thoroughly the gun rights community has won in the United States. NYSRPA v Bruen was the death blow but even before then the right to keep and bear arms has been trending in our favor. Everyone's seen the gif above and that's just concealed carry rights. When I was born the right was non existent and now it's essentially universal with many states not requiring permits to carry at all. Sure, some blue states are still pushing through laws that will be overturned but that's about it. 

Gun control is dead as a national issue for at least a generation or two. The only way that things change is if the makeup of the Supreme Court changes and there is no guarantee that happens anytime soon. The only other option for gun controllers is full tyranny and even that would result in a massive amount of blowback... 

The Biden family received millions of dollars from foreign nationals.

 

Joe and Hunter Biden. Fox News/AFP.

Joe Biden's family received as much as $10 million from foreign nationals while Biden was Vice President. Fox News. The information was subpoenaed from various banks by the House Oversight and Responsibility Committee. The Committee concluded that the Biden family had attempted to hide where the money came from via shell corporations. It was shown that large deposits were made into these shell companies while smaller deposits were made into Biden family accounts from the shell companies. Some of the money has come from China. The Committee says it is already possible that the money was used to influence policy as one of Hunter Biden's companies got $1 million from a Romanian named Gabriel Popoviciu, who was under investigation for corruption. Joe Biden met with Romanians shortly afterwards. It is unclear if any criminal charges will come from the probe. 

My Comment:

Despite the seriousness of these allegations I don't know if there are going to be any charges in this case. I'm not an expert on corruption law so I don't know if they can prove corruption without an explicit finding of quid pro quo between the Biden family and the foreigners offering them money. Right now the Republicans on the Committee don't have a smoking gun.

But I think there is a circumstantial case that the Biden family is corrupt. There have been rumors about Biden and his corruption for years now. The fact that his family members had millions of dollars poured into shell corporations is suspicious as hell. This certainly looks suspicious. 

Of course none of this is new. Biden was accused of something similar with the prosecutor in Ukraine. Indeed, Ukraine always appeared to be a money laundering operation for the Biden team. These new accusations are just an expansion of the old ones. 

I think the general reaction will probably be the same as the ones from before. No matter how outraged the Republicans are about this, do they have the power to actually do something about it? Do they even have the will? House committees are basically jokes and any prosecution of the Bidens has to go through the Justice Department, which is firmly in control of the Democratic Party. 

That could change if there is some kind of smoking gun found, but I struggle to think what Democrats would accept as rock solid proof. There is the old political saying that they wouldn't accept anything short of Biden being caught in bed with a dead woman or live boy and I'm not even sure that is true anymore. Even a smoking gun might not be enough these days. 

But there still isn't a smoking gun here. The case against the Biden family is circumstantial. There isn't direct evidence of a quid pro quo and without that I don't think there is a case. And going after someone without strong evidence is harmful. Just see how much it backfired against the Democrats after they charged Donald Trump! He's more popular than ever. One of the few things that could possibly turn things around for Biden is if people think he's a victim of a witch hunt. Without better evidence, that's what people might think this is. Right now they have the Bidens cold on looking suspicious, but you need a lot more than that to actually convince Biden's supporters that he and his family is corrupt. 

I personally believe that Biden is corrupt as hell and I don't think that is all that controversial. Can we prove it in court? I don't know. But what I do know is that the Republicans don't have anywhere near the votes to impeach and remove Biden from office. And that won't chance unless this committee finds something a lot more solid then they have now. 

Syria rejoins Arab League despite objections from the US and UK.

 

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly. AP.

Syria has rejoined the Arab League despite objections from the United States and the United Kingdom. AP. In a joint statement the United States and United Kingdom said they opposed the return of Syria to the League and said that their countries would not normalize relations with Syria until they abided by a UN peace plan. The Arab League does support that plan but allowed Syria to join the league anyways. Syria rejoined the Arab League this Sunday and is seen as a diplomatic coup for the Assad regime, despite the continuation of sanctions against the country. 

My Comment:

This is just another example of declining influence of the United States (and the United Kingdom for that matter). Before the Biden administration the Arab League would never have thought of doing something like this. But Biden has alienated much of the Arab World, most importantly Saudi Arabia. 

Indeed, I could see Saudi Arabia doing this just to anger the Biden Administration. Relations between America and Saudi Arabia are at their lowest point in recent memory. It's probably not fair to say that the Saudis are more fond of the Iranians at this point but considering the peace process they are going through in Yemen it's very possible that will be true soon enough. 

What gets me is that the Arab League is right. The Syrian Civil War is essentially over. It's largely continuing now because of foreign governments keeping it going, the Turks in the north and American forces in the south. The rest of the rebels have been destroyed, along with the vast majority of Islamic terrorists. Assad has won and the Arabs are accepting the fact that he isn't going anywhere soon. 

It's also another example of the Saudis and Iranians getting along better. Syria is a key Iranian ally, a status that greatly harmed relations with Saudi Arabia. With Iran and the Saudis getting along better that means that the Saudis no longer care about that. 

You would think that this situation would cause some soul searching at the Biden administration. This is another embarrassing failure for them along with Afghanistan and Ukraine. But I don't think that Biden and his regime will learn anything at all from this. Indeed, they will keep trying to keep the war going in Syria and will further alienate the Saudis, pushing them into the Iranian camp (and the Chinese camp for that matter, they are the ones that brokered the deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the first place). 

The sad thing is that I doubt the war will end anytime soon. Even though Assad isn't going anywhere and relationships in the region are normalizing, the war will continue as long as there are foreign troops in Syria. Some of that is on the Turks, but much of it is on the United States. And sanctions will continue to slow the process of rebuilding... 

Biden says he would veto bill that would enforce the border.

 

Joe Biden. AP.

Joe Biden said he would veto a bill that would enforce border regulations and attempt to deal with the massive wave of illegal immigrants at the border. AP. The bill would restrict asylum claims, fund more border walls and end refugee status from several countries. The bill will be proposed on the same day that Title 42, a Coronavirus measure that stopped large amounts of illegal immigration, will expire. The expiration is expected to lead to an even more massive wave of immigrants. The measure is unlikely to pass in the Senate so it is unlikely Biden will have the opportunity to veto it. Biden has proposed his own solutions for the border crisis but all of them involve allowing more migrants into the country. 

My Comment:

Just another example of both the Biden administration and both houses of congress failing to deal with this issue. This bill would at least do something to stem the flow of illegal immigrants into America but it's unlikely to pass the House, let alone the Senate. And if it somehow does? Biden will veto it. 

And Biden and the Democrats proposed solution? More immigration. Always more immigration. Nothing to secure the border. Nothing to deport the millions of illegal aliens already in the country. Nothing to secure the border. Nothing at all to help the millions of people that are hurt by immigration. 

And it's not like Republicans are that much better. There are representatives that are opposed to this bill because it would mean that companies would no longer be able to hire illegal immigrants. Once again, putting illegals over the people that come here legally or were born here. There are many Republicans that are willing to do something about the issue, but too many of them want more immigration or even an amnesty to the people that so blatantly broke the law. 

Nowhere is the gap between what the government wants on an issue and what normal people want greater than illegal immigration. Indeed, outrage about the issue propelled Donald Trump to the White House. And moving away from the issue in 2020 hurt his chances that year. Had he focused on it he would likely be President now even with all the nonsense we had in 2020. 

To be fair to Trump, he had essentially solved the issue during his term. He built most of the wall, actually deported people and put into place Title 42, which stopped a huge amount of immigration, legal and otherwise. Biden reversed all of those policies and we have reaped the whirlwind. 

Nowhere is the damage felt more than in the housing and renting market. All of these millions of immigrants entering the country need a place to say and that means that the prices of housing and rent will increase even more than they are already. And given the difficulty of building housing these days it's not going to get any better. And that could mean that people won't be able to afford homes or even rentals, which means even more people will end up on the streets.

Biden and the Democrats, and the pro-immigration Republicans, know all of this and don't care at all. They don't care about how much their constituents suffer and will continue to do whatever they want on this issue. Hopefully there will be a reckoning on this issue in 2024. Given how badly Biden is polling lately, perhaps the reckoning is already here. 

Washington Post/ABC News poll shows deep dissatisfaction for Joe Biden.

 

Joe Biden. ABC News/AP.

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows deep dissatisfaction for Joe Biden and his presidency. ABC News. Biden's approval rate is 36% in the poll which is lower than any other President at this point their Presidency, including three that did not get a 2nd term, including Trump, Truman and Carter. 68% of people said that Biden was too old to be president at 80, with only 44% saying the same thing about Donald Trump, who is 76. While Republicans largely said they would be happy with either Trump or DeSantis most Democrats said that they wanted someone else besides Biden with only 36% of them and Dem-leaning Independents wanting Biden to be the candidate. 

In a Biden-Trump matchup, 44% said they would vote for Trump with 38% going for Biden and 12% undecided. If the undecided are asked who they lean towards, the rate changes to 49% to 42%, with similar numbers for a Biden-DeSantis matchup. Even more troubling for Biden is that among people that said Trump should face charges for supposedly interfering with the 2020 election, 18% of them said they would still vote for Donald Trump over Biden. Even more deadly for Biden is his approval rate among Blacks, Hispanics and Independents are dropping rapidly. In a Trump-Biden matchup, Trump would get 27% of Blacks, 43% of Hispanics and 48% of Independents. 

My Comment:

If the results of this poll are correct and a fair election was held today Biden would be utterly destroyed by either Trump or DeSantis. And it doesn't even look close. Everyone is sick of Biden and don't think he is capable of being president. 

What really got me about this poll is that it appears to be biased in favor of the Democrats given how many people seem to want to see Trump prosecuted for nonsense. But even among that group an absurd 18% would vote for him over Biden. That means they honestly believe that Donald Trump is a criminal but would still vote for him over Joe Biden. That's absolutely devastating for Biden. 

It's also pretty bad that Biden is losing Blacks, Hispanics and women. Those are the big three for Democrats and even they are getting sick of Biden. If 1/4 of Blacks vote for Trump then it's over for Biden. And Hispanics are getting close to 50/50. It doesn't appear that any group is really excited for a 2nd Biden term. 

It also doesn't matter who runs against Biden, both Trump and DeSantis are beating Biden. Indeed, though I support Trump, I would vote for pretty much anyone to get Biden out of the White House. To be fair, the war between Trump and DeSantis has just gotten started and DeSantis isn't even officially running yet and a lot could happen between now and the nomination, but I think pretty much all Republicans except the die-hard never-Trumpers are team "anyone but Biden". 

So why is Biden's approval rating so bad? Well, why wouldn't it be? The economy is in shambles, crime is out of control, foreign policy is an absolute disaster, the border is a joke and we simply haven't had any good news as a country since Biden took office. He hasn't even been able to take credit for the end of the coronavirus pandemic since he botched that as well with his vaccine mandates. Indeed, he botched the issue so badly that his only semi-serious opponent in the Democratic Primary, RFK Jr. is basing his entire campaign on it. 

Of course the real problem is that we are assuming a fair election without interference from big tech, unbiased media and secure elections. I do think that some of the problems from 2020 aren't there anymore, but I'm starting to be convinced it's not voters that matter but ballot collection. And that's something Republicans are way behind on compared to the Democrats. 

On the other hand I don't know if the same tactics are going to work twice. Most people eventually accepted that Biden beat Trump largely because of the Coronavirus pandemic being such a mess. But if Biden's rocking a 36% approval rating and is seven points behind Trump in an approval poll right before the election then people are going to seriously question our elections, even more than they already do. 

Is it possible that Biden could turn it around? That seems very unlikely. The economy is not going to recover anytime soon. More banks are going to fail and we aren't going to see any reduction in rent or housing prices anytime soon with millions of illegals pouring into the country. Biden could of course try and fix some of this stuff but he seems incapable of changing course and only ever seems to double down.

Of course a lot could happen between now and November of 2024. Both Biden and Trump are of an advanced age and might not make it until then. Some new candidate could come along and shape up the race. And we could end up in a nuclear war with Russia. If that happens then who knows if there will even be an election in 2024?