US and Europe says no to F-16's for Ukraine.

 

An US Air Force F-16. The Guardian/Reuters. 

The United States and Europe have refused to provide F-16 fighters to Ukraine for use against Russia. The Guardian. Both the United States and the United Kingdom said they would not be providing F-16's to Ukraine. France seemed reluctant to send fighter jets as well, noting that any delivery would have to be defensive in nature and could not weaken France. Ukraine is demanding 200 fighters, along with training for pilots and ground crews. Ukraine supposedly still has some jets operational but they have not made an impact on the war. 

My Comment:

Germany has also refused to send jets to Ukraine, and the rest of Europe is mostly against the idea. The only country that seems warm to the idea is Poland, who has already tried to give fighter jets, in their case MIG-29's, to Ukraine. That was vetoed by NATO for what should be obvious reasons. 

Air power has not made much of an impact during the Ukraine war. Much of Ukraine's air forces were destroyed during the early parts of the war and most of their airfields are out of operation. They still have a few planes and helicopters but they aren't used much for obvious reasons. 

The main problem is that Russia's air defenses are really good. Any use of jets, even F-16's, is not going to go well as they will be shot down quickly. Not to mention, Russia's air forces are mostly intact as they have not been willing to risk their fighters to Ukrainian air defenses. If a force of F-16's were able to be used they would not last long. 

But the other problem is that there simply isn't a way to operate these fighters in Ukraine. Like I said, most airbases are damaged at best and destroyed at worst. There would be nowhere to base these fighters in Ukraine proper, so either the delivery would be a meaningless gesture or the fighters would have to be stationed in Poland. 

That would be a huge escalation and mean that Russia would have every incentive to bomb Poland. And even then the jets would be at the limits of their range and would still face the same issues of air defenses. Poland might be willing to take the risk but I doubt the rest of NATO wants to provoke a war with Russia by deploying fighters in Poland to be used in Ukraine. 

The logistics would be a nightmare as well. Training the pilots alone would take at least six months and building up the infrastructure to support those jets would likely take even longer. And then there is fuel, weapons and spare parts which would be even harder to provide. 

Let's assume though that none of that matters and Ukraine gets these jets and they somehow aren't shot down quickly. How much would they accomplish? Very little. Air power isn't really what Ukraine needs right now as they are having manpower issues on the ground. Sending jets to support dead men isn't at all useful.

The whole question could be moot in the first place. Russia seems to be advancing pretty well now with the Wagner group doing a good job at securing Bakhmut, the key to Ukraine's defenses in the Donbass region. Taking the city, which I think they will do soon, might break the whole war open. And keep in mind that Russia is mostly fighting with mercenaries and Chechens right now. Sooner or later the proper Russian Army will start an offensive and it likely won't go well for Ukraine. In six months, the estimated time to train up the pilots if the fighters are delivered today, the war may be resolved. 

What does worry me though is that most of what I said about fighter jets also applied to heavy tanks and Ukraine was able to get those. That was a huge escalation, and the image of German tanks returning to Ukraine to fight Russia was not a good image for anyone. If anything it strengthened Russian resolve and killed any anti-war movement in Russia. Despite that obvious escalation of the war and the fact that those tanks won't do a damn thing in an artillery war, Ukraine got them anyways. These jets might be the same thing...