Iran claims to have come under attack by drones targeting a weapons facility.

 

Twitter screencap of the attack. Warzone/The Drive.

Iran claims to have come under attack by drones targeting a weapons factory in Isfahan. Warzone. Iran's Ministry of Defense says the factory came under attack by three drones and said that the attack failed with no casualties being inflicted and the only damage being done to the roof the facility. The Iranians claim that one drone was shot down while the other two were caught in "defense traps". Explosions were heard in three other cities along with a report of a huge fire at an oil storage facility, though it is unclear if that fire is related to the attacks. Iran is also believed to have scrambled fighter jets in response to the attack. It is unclear who is responsible for the attack. 

A powerful blast occurred in the city of Isfahan, Iran 🇮🇷, according to IRNA. At this time, no injuries have been reported. Drone attack is reported on the video.#Iran #Israel #iranunderattack #iranexplosions #IranIsraelWar #IsraelUnderAttack #Tehran #Teheran pic.twitter.com/b25dnCWtcV

— 24Talker (@24talker) January 29, 2023

My Comment:

This is a breaking news story from an area of the world with little in the way of trustworthy press so it's unclear exactly how serious this incident is and if it will escalate. The reports of other attacks besides the one that Iran has admitted to are unconfirmed and may not be attacks at all. Oil facilities are known to have fires often enough.  

It's also very unclear where these drones were launched from or if they are even state actors. The video I posted above did not make it seem like these were powerful first world drones but instead weaker ones that did not have much in the way of offensive ability. The explosion was very small compared to what you would expect to see if this was a full on military attack. 

It's very possible that this was not a state actor that pulled this off. Smaller drones like these are easy to use and are commonly available. And it's not like Iran has been the most stable country recently. It is very possible that this attack was conducted by a domestic terror group or insurgents. Indeed, ISIS has a presence in Iran and they helped pioneer these kinds of attacks.

Of course the other usual suspects are Israel and Saudi Arabia. Both of them are engaged with proxy wars with Iran, with Israel regularly bombing Iranian troops in Syria while Saudi Arabia has their mess with Yemen. A strike by either government would be a major escalation though, despite the fact that they have both come under attack by Iranian forces and proxies, they haven't hit back like this before on Iranian soil. Plus, I would expect such an attack to be dramatically bigger in scale if Israel or Saudi Arabia were the ones attacking. 

The wildest theory I heard was that it was the Ukrainians that conducted the attack. The theory is that the factory that got hit was the one that is producing the Shahed drones that have been so effective in the war. The theory is almost certainly false since for one I don't think that is where the drones are being made in the first place and even if it was, the Ukrainians hardly have the ability to launch drones in their own battlefields, let alone in a foreign country hundreds of miles from them.

Of course it could be the United States as well, which would be baffling since though Iran has always been a thorn in our sides, they haven't done much to us lately. America has our hands full with the Ukraine War and tensions with China, so why attack the Iranians? It would be absurd, but then again, everything about the Biden administration has been absurd at best and completely baffling at worst, so I can't completely rule the theory out. 

Regardless though, it seems fairly clear that the drone strikes did not destroy this factory. The Iranians are known to lie but the bombing in the video did not seem very bad at all. Whoever was behind this attack must be disappointed that it didn't destroy this target. Perhaps we will see follow up attacks?