Russia has started a new offensive in southern Ukraine

 

Rubble in the Zaporizhahia region. AFP/New York Times.

Russia has started a new offensive in southern Ukraine after the front there has stagnated for months. AFP. The Russians have advanced in the Zaporizhahia region, taking the village of Lobkove. Ukraine reports more than 20 of their towns have come under attack. The front has been quite for a long time with the vast majority of fighting has occurred in Bakhmut region, where Russia has also seen some successes in that region, including taking the critical town of Soledar. Both Zaporizhahia and Donetsk, where Bakhmut is, are stated to be war goals. 

My Comment:

I don't know if this is Russia's famed winter offensive of not? I had expected attacks from Belarus or from the north, not the south. But on the other hand, attacking here makes sense. The bulk of Ukraine's forces are deployed in a losing effort in Bakhmut, with many others still deployed near the border with Belarus. That probably means they don't have the troops to protect this region. 

Still, Bakhmut remains the main show. Russia has been surprisingly effective there, mostly fighting with Wagner mercenaries/prison battalions. They have been inflicting massive casualties on the Ukrainians due to their major advantage with artillery. This has been so effective that they were able to take Soledar. 

Keep in mind at least half of Ukraine's forces were deployed near Bakhmut and they still lost Soledar. And they will likely lose more of what they have as Russia advances. Ukraine just doesn't seem to have enough in the tank to defend Bakhmut and Zaporizhahia at the same time.

The problem for Ukraine is that they need the perception of victories (even meaningless ones) to keep the flow of western aid flowing. Nobody will want to pay for their weapons and budget if they know that Ukraine is losing the war. That's why I am expecting some kind offensive in an area where Russia is weak. 

If we don't see that then we know Ukraine is really in trouble. If they can't muster enough forces to execute an offensive, even a meaningless one, it means that they are on the brink of collapse. I don't know how likely it is but if we do see it we should have pretty good proof that the war is not going Ukraine's war at all. 

I know most of the news about Ukraine is about western aid, but it's pretty laughable. A few Bradly Fighting Vehicles aren't going to help and even the vaunted Leopard tanks are not going to help much. The Leopards aren't even coming from Germany and given Turkey's experience with the tanks, I don't see them making much of an impact. The Turkish Leopard were taken out by ISIS and the Kurds, which don't have anywhere near the technology and expertise that Russia has.   

The real elephant in the room is that the west is running out of supplies while Russia's factories are pumping out weapons 24/7. Back when I was in college my history professor told my class about his World War II class where he said he only taught about the actual combat of the war for about a week. The entire rest of the class was about how the allies beat the axis because of the dramatic advantage in military production. 

That stuck with me for years and I think it remains true in the Ukraine conflict. Russia has a major industrial advantage over the west, who has drawn down production on weapons dramatically. Russia on the other hand is on a war footing and they have the weapons to keep the war going for a long time, even as they deplete some of their pre-war stocks. 

The Ukrainians? They can't produce their own weapons for the most parts and their weapons from before the war are almost completely gone. So are many of the weapons they have received from the west in the first wave of aid. They essentially have lost two entire armies worth of equipment and are begging for a third. I can't imagine they will have a fourth...