The next major war could very well be between Israel and Iran. The Daily Beast. There is already a shadow war going on between the two countries with both sides running operations against each other. Israel's government is using what they term an "octopus campaign", greatly stepping up attacks on Iran's nuclear capabilities. Recently that has involved a drone strike against a nuclear research facility and an assassination of military Colonel in Tehran. The campaign is focused on both the smaller "tentacles" of Iran's military, such as bases in Syria, as well as the "head", the Iranian regime itself. The attacks have been against Iran's capabilities to make war against Israel and is in response to drone attacks and other actions by Iran. The risk of the strategy is obvious, Iran has vowed reciprocity for these Israeli attacks. This could lead to a wider war, that may draw in countries outside of Iran and Israel, as Iran has in the past struck Israeli targets outside of the Jewish state.
My Comment:
It's not often I get to say this but a good report from The Daily Beast. It's a pretty good roundup of what is happening between Israel and Iran right now. They did leave some stuff out, largely Saudi Arabia's potential role in any conflict and the fact that Israel isn't listening to the United States when it comes to Iran anymore, but other than that it is a very good round up.
The last thing the world needs right now is a major war between Israel and Iran. Quite simply, it would make every problem we have right now worse. Energy prices would go up even further, and I already consider them to be at an unsustainable level. And we certainly don't need yet another wave of major terror attacks and assassinations to occur.
But I don't think it is avoidable at this point. Israel, correctly in my view, believes that Iran's government is an existential threat to them. They believe that Iran is going to get nukes and if they do, they will use them on Israel. How close the Iranians are to a bomb is an open question, I personally think they are very far away, but what matters is what the Israelis believe. They don't want to risk being wrong and ending up with Tel Aviv being nuked.
There doesn't appear to be all that much the US can do about this either. Joe Biden is not the friend to Israel that Donald Trump was, for better or worse. He has little influence there. Biden was banking on gaining influence with Iran, but has so far failed to get it. And don't even get me started on how badly Biden has blown our relations with the Gulf States. A government like Saudi Arabia who won't even take Joe Biden's calls, let alone broker some kind of deal.
I do think that Israel considers this a high risk, high reward situation. If they managed to cripple Iran's nuke and drone capabilities they will be dramatically safer. If they provoke a war, even then it might be worth it because then they might be able to get rid of the Iranian threat for good. It will be good for them no matter the outcome, even if it is terrible for the rest of the world.
Keep in mind, I don't think a major war with Iran would look like Ukraine, for example. It would at most involve drone strikes, bombing missions and occasional commando raids on the Israeli's part. For the Iranians they would mostly strike from Syria with their proxy soldiers in Hezbollah and make use of the Quds Force. I think the main difference between this potential war and previous wars is the fact that Israel would be more aggressive towards Iran, as their most recent actions show.
The other possibility is that the status quo continues. As much as Iran hates Israel, they might not want a war with them right now. They have a good opportunity to recover economically due to high oil prices and their current stability has a lot to be desired. I know some people say war is a good way to get people to get in line, but I don't know if that's true in this case. Time will tell what outcome will occur.
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