Lithuania bans imports and exports with Russia, cutting off Kaliningrad.

 

A port in Kaliningrad Russia. Reuters. 

In a major escalation, Lithuania has banned imports and exports with Russia, cutting off Kaliningrad from the rest of Russia. Reuters. The ban would block most rail traffic to the Kaliningrad area, which is cut off from the rest of Russia. Russians would be forced to ship goods over the ocean instead. 40 to 50% of Russian goods, most notably construction supplies, would be banned. The move would increase already high tensions between NATO and Russia. 

My Comment:

Lithuania is a border country and has a large Russian minority that will probably have a problem with this. Not so much that they will actually do anything, mind you, but enough that there might be internal blowback from this decision. 

This is a pretty huge deal and a major escalation from NATO. Blocking off Kaliningrad is not something that will accomplish much other than making the Russians angry. They can easily ship these good through the Baltic Sea, but at a higher cost. That tiny amount of economic damage is not worth the risk of pissing off Russia, especially now. 

Why? Because I think it's pretty clear now that Ukraine is losing the war. They are taking unsustainable casualties and are going through weapons faster than they can be shipped in. Russia is pretty systematically destroying their military and it feels like only a matter of time before they collapse. And their "no retreat" mentality is just making it happen quicker. 

But the danger of this is pretty extreme. Russia is already upset with Lithuania as it is, cutting them off from supplying Kaliningrad will be worse. Kaliningrad is a strategically important region and not something that the Russians can just write off. They will also lose face from this and it may even provoke some kind of response. 

My hope is that cooler heads will prevail and understand that this is a major risk with little to gain. It seems a lot like NATO is acting a lot like a child, doing what feels good and not doing what is smart. Right now nobody seems to want to admit that Russia outplayed us in Ukraine and has figured out how to counter our moves. So NATO is just stomping their feet and throwing a tantrum.