Russia has captured the critical city of Severodonetsk, bringing much of the Luhansk oblast under their control. CNBC. Both sides have confirmed that Ukrainian fighters have quit the city. The victory was the biggest one since Russia captured the city of Mariupol. Russia will now attempt to cross the river to capture Severodonetsk's twin city, Lyschansk. Russia has switched tactics in the war, avoiding their failed attempts at blitzkrieg style armor attacks moving towards a slower, grinding artillery offensive.
My Comment:
This news broke yesterday, but given Friday's abortion ruling here in the United States, the US media is totally out to lunch on this and all other stories. Plus, it's not like they are motivated to point out that Russia actually got a major victory.
A quick note. Every single news article I have seen has spelled Severodonetsk differently, sometimes differently in the same article, like this CNBC piece. I don't really know if the way I am spelling it is the former pre-war spelling or it's like Kiev and Kyiv. Or is it just different media outlets choosing different spelling? I don't know or care which way is politically correct but I am going to go with the one that's easier to spell, assuming I am spelling it right in the first place.
Still, it was foolish of these Ukranians to keep contesting the city for as long as they did. The city had been surrounded and all the bridges over the Seversky Donets river had all been blown up. At that point they should have pulled out but Zelenskyy insisted that the troops there fight to the end, against the advice of his generals.
It was stupid to not pull out then and I am not sure how many of Ukraine's best troops were able to make it out of the city. I said back when the bridge was blown that Ukraine might be able to ford the river or by using small boats, but they would lose much of their equipment doing so, and with heavy casualties to boot. Without more information it's unclear if that happened or not, but my guess is that the retreat was more of a rout.
We will likely see a repeat of this debacle happen in Lyschansk. The only advantage for the Ukrainians is that the Russians will eventually have to cross the river, which will be somewhat difficult. However, I have little doubt that the artillery strategy Russia has used to great effect. The Ukrainians simply can't counter this strategy because they have largely run out of ammo.
Sure, the United States and Europe are supplying arms but it's not enough for Ukraine. They are going through it as fast as it is being delivered and much if it is being destroyed before it even reaches the front line. The Russians still have a huge amount of weapons stores and won't run out anytime soon. The Ukrainians would need an equal number of weapons to match the Russians and that simply isn't possible with the level of production the west has for weapons.
But the biggest problem for the Ukrainians is the fact they are running out of troops. When the war began the Ukrainians had a large, combat tested army. But that army has largely been destroyed with most of those troops killed, wounded or captured. Much of Ukraine's forces now are made up of conscripts and reservists. And morale is going to collapse with this defeat.
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