Ukraine's president Zelenskyy is in a precarious political position...

 

A destroyed apartment complex in Kiev. The Daily Beast/Getty.

Ukraine's President Volodymry Zelenskyy is in a precarious political position. The Daily Beast. Zelenksyy remains popular since the invasion of Ukraine, reversing a major drop in support during the build up of the war. The problem with that is that most of his support is dependent on not giving anything up to the Russians. 82 percent of Ukrainian people do not want to give up any land up to the Russians at all, including Crimea, which was annexed in 2014. Indeed, many Ukrainians want the Russians to be totally pushed out of Ukraine, which does not seem militarily possible. Territorial demands are sine qua non for any peace deal with the Russians, with the Russians likely to demand at the very least current holdings as well as all of the Donbass region. 

My Comment:

The Daily Beast is a pro-Ukraine outlet and because of that I think they are downplaying the nature and severity of the threat to Zelenskyy. My guess is that if he were to give the Russians anything, even to save the lives of his people, he would find himself in a ditch somewhere with his hands tied behind his back and a bullet in the back of his head. 

But I don't know if the threat is larger from the United States or from his fellow Ukrainians. The CIA certainly wants the war to continue and aren't above assassinating leaders who don't play ball. They might not even get the chance though as the Ukrainians might beat them too it. Conceding anything to the Russians is very unacceptable to the hardliners in the Ukrainian government and Zelenskyy does that he might end up facing a coup or worse. 

The problem is that the Russians appear to be doing much better on the battlefield. They are very close to taking all of Luhansk and appear to be winning the battle of Serverodonstk. Indeed, I saw a Reuters report today that claimed that Russians just blew a bridge out of town, meaning that many of Ukraine's best remaining fighters could be surrounded and destroyed, if it is true. 

That means that idea that Ukraine could ever push Russia out of Ukraine seems incredibly short sighted and unrealistic. I don't think the Ukrainians can push the Russians out of Serverodonstk, let alone out of the rest of Ukraine. The idea that Ukraine could take back Crimea and the two breakaway republics is ridiculous and not something that is in any way likely to happen. 

The other problem is that Russia does not appear powerful enough to take their war goals in a short amount of time. They gambled hard in the beginning of the war with their push to Kiev that failed and now that they have regrouped and reorganized they are making progress but it is slow going. Largely because their newer more effective tactics involve massive artillery strikes. Though effective those tactics are slow and cause heavy casualties. I think Russia could take Ukraine, all of Ukraine, if they were willing to fight the war for a decade or so, but if there is to be any end to the war it's probably not going to happen on the battlefield unless Ukraine collapses entirely.  

So Zelenskyy is in a very bad position. If he lets the war continue he is going to lose tons of people, devastate what is left of his economy and ruin his military. If he tries to sue for peace he will probably be killed and replaced by a hardliner. It's a terrible position to be in and I would feel sorry for him if he hadn't invited all this himself.