Russia is close to a breakthrough in Donbass.

 

Pro-Russian militia drive a tank in Donetsk. Reuters. 

Russia is close to a breakthrough in Donbass and is close to encircling the cities of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. Reuters. If Russia manages to take the cities they will control the entire Luhansk region. The Russians taking all of Luhansk would be a major war goal accomplished. The Ukrainians have admitted Russian success in the region and fear they will take heavy casualties. A Russian success in the region could possibly increase pressure on Ukraine for a diplomatic solution to the war. 

A map showing the current situation. Red is Russia while Yellow is Ukraine. 

My Comment:

I haven't been following the Ukraine war that closely but this looks like a major change in status quo. If the Russians win here they will have accomplished a major war goal. All of Luhansk would be under their control and they probably wouldn't lose it again. 

The breakout might be the easy part though. Taking the major cities will not be an easy task. It took Russia weeks to take Mariupol proper and then even longer to take the steal plant in the outskirts of the town. It would be brutal urban fighting and could cause quite a few casualties. 

Either way though cutting off those two cities would be a major blow to the Ukrainian forces, who are already reeling from the loss of Mariupol. They lost a huge number of their best fighters in the battle there and they can't afford to lose even more. 

If I were the Ukrainians I would be pulling troops out of those two cities and evacuating the civilians. I don't think they can hold onto the cities, let alone keep it from being enveloped. If they pull troops out now they will be able keep most of those troops intact, but I don't know if they will do so. The Ukrainians have not been too keen on pulling back from their territory even when it makes sense to do so. 

It's unclear if the Russians are winning the war. They do appear to have some success in the south, including the major victory in Mariupol. But it's also clear that they have had to pull back quite a bit in the north. They failed to take Kiev and have largely pulled out of most of Ukraine outside of Donbass and the coast. 

I do think that the Russians are doing well in the economic war with the west though. The Ruble has largely recovered and they are surviving western sanctions. Indeed, those sanctions appear to be doing more harm to the west then it is doing to Russia. 

The Russians have totally lost the propaganda war outside of their borders though. It's pretty much impossible to find a pro-Russia perspective while it's also hard to find a anti-Ukraine perspective in the west. Indeed, it's risky for me to write this neutral perspective where I am analyzing the facts on the ground instead of condemning Russia. I'm on the record of not being a fan of either side, but that might not be good enough. 

Still, I think there is going to be more pressure on Ukraine to try and make some deal. If they give the Russians what they want they can save some face and military units. I don't think anyone would argue that they didn't fight hard enough. I sincerely don't think they will win at this point unless this offensive stalls out, and even then I don't see them taking back what they lost. Their best case appears to be a stalemate and that won't accomplish anything. 

I think other people are realizing that. Zelenskyy said the other day that the war will probably end with a negotiated settlement. And Henry Kissinger (how is he still alive?) said that Ukraine would probably have to give up territory. I think people are starting to realize that ending the war might be a good thing for everyone involved.