Russia is about to take the critical Ukrainian city of Severodonetsk

 

A destroyed building in Ukraine. AP.

Russia is about to take the critical Ukrainian city of Servodonetsk, with the mayor of the city saying at least half has already fallen. AP. Russia has switched tactics from the initial stages of the war and has focused more on devastating artillery strikes. This has allowed them advance quickly in the city, which is one of the last remaining Ukrainian outposts in Luhansk province. The Russians are trying to take the area before more US weapons arrive, including a medium range rocket system that Biden had initially refused to send. Most civilians have evacuated Servodonestk and their remain routes out of the city for Ukrainian forces. When Russia takes Servodonetsk they will likely target the sister city of Lysychansk, which lies to the west of the city. 

My Comment:

The writing is on the wall for Servodonestk, the Russians are very close to taking the city entirely. This will be a major victory for them as if they take this city as well as Lysychansk, which is already being destroyed by artillery, they will have captured all of Luhansk province, which is a major war goal for them. 

It's not all good news for Russia though. They had an opportunity to cut off both cities by surrounding them from the west. That offensive has largely sputtered out with the danger of all those Ukrainian forces being cut off mostly passed. 

I don't think Russia is under too much pressure from US weapons. They have had some success in destroying weapons shipments and it's largely status quo ante. Their tactics have changed quite a bit to better counter US anti-tank weapons. The Russians took massive tank losses to US Javelins which were launched from the tops of high rises during the early stage of the war. Those anti-tank launchers are not very relevant when their users are destroyed by artillery and tanks are being used at much.  

I do have to say that I am sick of Biden's flip flopping on Ukraine. First he said he won't be giving Ukraine any MLRS systems but today he said he will. To be fair it's not a long range system but it could potentially be used to strike targets in Russia, which the Russians will obviously have a problem with. I also don't think that these weapons will do much to help Ukraine as they likely be in too small numbers to make a difference and will be a priority target for Russian airstrikes. 

Plus, it certainly won't matter for Servodonetsk and it probably won't matter for Lysychansk either. Russia has found tactics that work for them now and their advances have been quicker. Servodonetsk has basically fallen already while Lysychansk will be the next to fall. These launchers won't be there for weeks and even then the Ukrainians will have to be trained on the weapons. 

As for the greater war itself I do think that the war has progressed from the stalemate and Russian retreat that defined the early stage of the war. The Russians have found tactics that work and have managed to largely accomplish their goal in taking Donbass. The real question will be what happens afterwards. I don't think it's likely or even possible that Russia will take the entire country but I hope that both sides will realize that at that point the war should just end.