Coronavirus cases have exploded globally due to the new Omicron variant but deaths remain flat. Bloomberg. More than 1.4 million cases were reported yesterday, which is a record. The seven day average is also at its highest level ever. The increase is due to the Omicron variant, which spreads much quicker than the Delta variant and is quickly replacing it. Global deaths however have stayed flat despite the huge case count. This is likely due to the Omicron variant being much weaker than other variants of the Coronavirus.
My Comment:
This is more confirmation to my theory about how the pandemic was going to play out. Much like the Russian flu back in the day the Coronavirus is evolving into a much less lethal virus. Right now Omicron is somewhere between a serious cold or a mild flu and I am guessing it will be replaced by a variant that is essentially a common cold.
This is evidenced by the death rate. It's largely flat and even looks like it is declining a bit. I am guessing that almost all of those deaths are due to the remaining Delta cases and other variants. Omicron seems to be causing almost zero deaths and I don't expect that to change anytime soon.
Not only is Omicron largely weaker than other variants, it also has less fertile ground to work with. Though natural antibodies and vaccines do not prevent Omicron infection, they do help keeping an already weak virus less deadly. Plus, many of the most vulnerable people have either been wiped out by the other variants or have some antibody protection.
It also seems clear that basically everyone is going to get the Omicron variant. It is spreading like wildfire and even countries with draconian restrictions, like China, can't seem to get it under control. Most things we have tried failed to stop Delta, which did not spread like Omicron does. Mask mandates, vaccine mandates, lockdowns, nothing will stop this virus.
This could be a problem, though not the doomsday scenario the media is portraying it as. Much of it is that the quarantine protocols that most governments have. If millions of people get a severe cold, that's not a big deal. But if everyone that gets it has to miss a week of work that will cause major problems. This is probably the reason why the CDC now recommends a five day quarantine rather than ten days.
Keep in mind though that these numbers a bit deceptive. The majority of active Omicron variant infections are totally asymptomatic. These people will not even get sick after they get infected, due to whatever reason. Some of them would have immunity from previous infections, some are just not as vulnerable to genetics. And some may have cross immunity from other Coronavirus infections, such as the ones that cause the common colds.
The good news is that the pandemic will almost certainly end after the Omicron variant spreads. With so many people getting the virus herd immunity will finally show up. The rate of case growth is not sustainable. With so many cases happening so fast there won't be a chance for a new variant to emerge. New cases will eventually collapse to the point where it will essentially be impossible to detect. The virus will still be around, much like the other Coronavirus cold variants, but the pandemic will be over.
What happens then is the real question. The pandemic is in its last gasps and the current restrictions have been proven to not work. Once the virus burns itself out all restrictions should be removed, assuming they still have them. In my state the only restrictions are either Federal in nature or imposed by private businesses. But hundreds of restrictions are still in place nationally and globally. In theory those restrictions should be gone by this spring. If they are not, then we know that they were never about the virus in the first place...
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