Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are very high. Could war be possible?

 

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky. Reuters

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are high after Russia moved troops to the border. Reuters. Russia may be concerned about the treatment of Russian speaking minorities in Ukraine. A member of Russia's military said that the country may be forced to defend the Russian speaking minorities.  There has also been an uptick in violence between Ukraine and the Donbass rebels. 

My Comment:

I think there is a real chance of the war in Ukraine heating up again this summer. Indeed, that's what a lot of people are saying and I have reason to believe it. Tensions are extremely high right now between Russia and Ukraine. 

I posted recently that some of this is a reaction to how weak the US president is right now. Putin understands that Joe Biden is barely sapient at this point in his senility and that he can push the United States around. He also had personal reasons to dislike Biden given the diplomatic insult he has given him. 

It goes beyond that though in terms of the United States. Russia is also furious with us for threatening their gas pipeline to Germany. That pipeline is almost done and Biden actually threatened Germany with sanctions, which put a lot of pressure on Russia. Given how critical natural gas is to Russia's economy it's no surprise they are saber rattling. 

But I think a lot of this falls on Ukraine and their president, Volodymyr Zelensky. Zelensky campaigned on finishing the war in Donbass and he has utterly failed to do so. It has cratered his approval rating and will likely destroy his chances at getting re-elected. 

And Ukraine was in fact discriminating against Russian speaking Ukrainians. They weren't allowed to speak their language and were treated terribly. Plus Ukraine has used actual Nazis in their fight against the break-away Donbass areas. The narrative that the Russians are big bullies and Ukraine is totally innocent is a lie. 

That being said, I don't think we should support either side in the conflict. Both sides deserve each other. We have very little interest in Ukraine and should not spend money on their defense. That being said, I have very little faith in Biden to keep us out of any conflict in Ukraine. Indeed, Biden has a very strong track record of making the absolute wrong choice. 

So what will a war look like? I am expecting that it will return to the low scale war we saw during the main days of the conflict. I'm not really expecting the Russians to invade like they did with Crimea even though I think the people of Donbass wouldn't mind that. Instead it will be hybrid war, with more covert support from the Russians instead of overt. And I am expecting it to start sooner rather than later...