Greece is increasing their military spending, purchasing 18 Rafale fighters from France.

 

File photo of Rafale fighters. Greek Reporter.

Greece is increasing their military spending by 57% and buying 18 Rafale fighters from France. Greek reporter. Greece will spend $6.6 billion for 2021, more than double what they spent in 2019. The 18 Rafale fighters will cost 2.5 billion Euros. New frigates, helicopters, drones, upgrades to F-16's and 15,000 more troops. 

My Comment:

Though none of the articles I have read explains why Greece is spending so much money on defense, the answer is pretty obvious. This is all about Turkey, an supposed ally and NATO member. Turkey has been extremely aggressive in their foreign policy and have made claims on Greek territory and have historic conflicts with Greece, most notably the Greek Genocide. 

The fact that Greece is spending all this money now is a huge deal. Greece has had massive economic problems even before the Coronavirus outbreak. The outbreak has made things much worse as Greece is very dependent on tourism for income and that has been largely cutoff as people aren't willing or able to travel. To spend now would normally be a mistake but it seems clear that it's a matter of national urgency to spend. 

I think the Greeks are right to be worried. Turkey has been very dangerous lately. They are behind much of the chaos in the region and were a major factor in why Syria is such a mess. They were also major contributors to the Armenia-Azerbaijan war and they are causing problems in Cyprus as well. 

It's not out of the realm of possibility that Greece and Turkey go to war. Turkey wants to push their claims and it's clear that their leader, Tayyip Erdogan, has gone off the deep end. I don't think he is entirely stable. And the chances of an accidental war grow as Turkey becomes more aggressive. 

I don't think that Greece can easily win a war against Turkey. It's possible but very unlikely unless Greece gets help. Turkey has a huge modern army and one that has been tested in Syria and with their own insurgency with the Kurds. They have a large air force with modern weapons. 

What this new Greek spending accomplishes is not a potential military victory. What they are doing is making it more difficult for Turkey to try to start a war with Greece. Doing so would probably greatly damage Turkey even if they win, especially now that Greece is on a spending spree. 

What is really interesting is what happens to NATO if Greece and Turkey go to war. My guess is that in a sane world Turkey would get kicked out and NATO would back Greece unless something really stupid happened. I have been pushing for Turkey to be kicked out for awhile given their treatment of minorities like the Kurds, their former support of ISIS and their aggressive moves in Syria. But I also can't see other NATO countries actually fighting against Turkey. Doing so would not serve their interests and that means that any support of Greece would probably not involve sending troops.

Hopefully though this won't amount to much of anything. Other than a nice payday for France, which is selling the Rafales to Greece. A war between Greece and Turkey is no longer unthinkable but I also think it's still very unlikely.