U.S. sees a surge of new Coronavirus cases in several states, with 45,000 new infections counted.

CNBC graphic showing the daily new cases. 

The United States has seen a surge of new Coronavirus cases in several states with 45,000 new infections recorded Friday. CNBC. The new numbers for last week increased by 41% compared to the previous week. Cases are growing 5% or more in 34 states. However deaths are still continuing to fall, though that metric usually lags behind infections. Young people are making up the majority of the new cases, but they could bring the disease home to older and more vulnerable people. Some states, including Texas, Washington and Arizona are rolling back reopening or not moving on to newer phases of the lockdown lift. 

My Comment:

First of all, I don't think this qualifies as the vaunted "second wave" of Coronavirus. The majority of the 34 states with large increases are states that weren't hit hard in the initial phase of the virus. States like New York and New Jersey, which already had severe outbreaks, are not seeing a massive increase in cases. California is the main exception, but that state is so large and diverse it's almost a nation into itself. I am thinking that this is still wave one for the majority of states hit. 

How serious is this? Probably not as serious as the media is making it out. A lot of the people testing positive are folks that will recover from the disease. It's mostly young people that are catching the virus and that's actually a good thing. Very few of them will die or require hospitalization and the more people that get it the closer we will get to herd immunity, which will protect the more vulnerable people that have yet to be exposed to the virus. These are the people out and about right now and it's not the worst thing in the world for them to be infected. 

I also think that testing is a major reason we are seeing so many cases. Many of the mild or asymptomatic cases that would have fallen through the cracks in the initial phase of the outbreak are now being caught. I worked with a few people that tested positive but did not show major symptoms and they are lumped in with the severely ill. When my company tested every employee there were of course a few that would not have been caught otherwise. This level is testing is a lot more common now than they were in the initial phase of the outbreak.

Another factor is antibody testing. My uncle recently got tested and confirmed that he had Coronavirus... a long time ago. His antibody test was positive but it was reported to the CDC like it was a new case. Without better information on how many of these cases are just antibody tests from earlier in the outbreak it's hard to tell how bad things actually are. It's unclear how much of a factor this is but it is clear that it is a factor. 

I also think that the Coronavirus is milder than it once was. There was my post awhile back about how in Italy the virus seems to have mutated to a less severe form and I think that's likely what is going on here. That would help explain why cases have exploded, but deaths have not. 

Were we right to lift the lockdowns? I don't think we had much of a choice. People were fed up with them and for good reason, they were doing massive economic damage. People need to be able to go outside and socialize. If we had waited too much longer the virus would no longer matter as the situation would be even more politically chaotic than it already is. 

I do think that the Black Lives Matter civil unrest and rioting is a major factor in why cases are increasing. Though it is unclear how much of an effect they had directly, as outdoor events seem less likely to spread the virus than indoor ones, I do think that it turned the virus into a joke. People couldn't take social distancing and mask wearing seriously when there were people out in the streets looting stores and burning down buildings. The left thought it was more important for the riots to happen and the right never bought into the lockdowns in the first place. Right now very few people take the virus seriously. 

Should we though? Though I think the media is pretty obviously overhyping the threat of the virus, it's also clear that people could be doing more to avoid the virus. Simple things like facemasks and avoiding large events would go a long way towards slowing the spread of the disease. And it's still very clear that older and vulnerable people need to keep extra vigilance to make sure that they don't get sick. I think there is a balance between completely blowing off the virus and tanking our economy in order to stop it but it just seems like we flipped from one extreme to the other. 

That being said, I do remain optimistic that the Coronavirus outbreak is closer to being finished then the media thinks. Like I said before, I believe that this is still the first wave of the virus spreading to virgin territory, not the 2nd wave of infections. If hard hit states like New York and New Jersey start seeing the numbers we are seeing in the West, then I might worry more. But for now, I'm generally expecting the virus to be on the way out by late summer, early fall. Fingers crossed at least...