Growing tensions between India and China over borders.

Indian Army military vehicles in the disputed region. The Guardian/AP.

Tensions are growing between India and China over a border dispute in the Himalayan Mountains. The Guardian. Thousands of PLA troops have deployed on the Chinese side of the border in the Ladakh region. India has responded by deploying several battalions of troops to the border as well. The moves come after two brawls earlier in the month were hundreds of Indian and Chinese troops fought each other, resulting in 100 injuries but no deaths. President Trump has offered to mediate the dispute but there is no indication that either side will take him up on the offer. China may be responding to Indian efforts to shore up airbases and roads in the region while China is doing the same on their side of the border. 

My Comment:

Border skirmishes between India and it's neighbors are nothing new. They have had a few skirmishes with Pakistan and China over the years and the brawls earlier in the month are nothing new. With the Himalayan borders a mess it's no surprise that all sides involved are trying to push their claims. Indeed, it seems that every couple of years or so we see skirmishes like we have seen in the last month. 

But this seems a little more serious than the typical border brawl. Both India and China are sending thousands of troops to the border and that means that this could get ugly. Though the risks of an outright war are slim there is a real possibility that there will be an actual skirmish where people could actually die. Things like a firefight, an artillery duel or even an air battle aren't outside the realm of possibilities. 

For it's party China has been saber rattling quite a bit. They have been threatening their neighbors, trying to push territorial claims and cracking down on Hong Kong. They are throwing their weight around quite a bit and it would not be surprising if the eventually get into a shooting war. 

This reaction in particular is likely due to the fact that India has been fortifying their borders lately. Prime Minster Modi is a nationalist and he is determined to keep India a strong country. I don't particularly blame the Chinese for fortifying their border in return.

However, I do think that China may be sensing that India is in a bad position right now. Not only are they dealing with a deadly Coronavirus outbreak, they also are getting affected by the massive locust plague that is affecting much of the world right now. And they also just had to deal with a major cyclone as well. 

In comparison, China is in a position of strength. Their outbreak is under control and they haven't had the locusts hit their territory yet. Though their economy had been hurt badly, that's about their only major problem right now compared to India. 

I do think it's possible that if India can't get their various plagues under control and starts to collapse under the weight of it, it's very possible that China could actually try to push their claims and send troops to take this territory. That's not likely since I sincerely doubt that the situation in India will get that bad, but it is something to keep an eye on.

This might be an opportunity for the United States. With a cold war with China apparently in the cards, we could use all the allies we could get. India could be a great one to have as they have a major army, nuclear weapons and a semi-decent navy. They could also pick up some of the manufacturing we are pulling out of China. In short, it makes sense to support them in this conflict if a conflict actually happens.