Turkey warns Libya's Haftar that his forces could be considered "legitimate targets" if they continue their attacks.

Smoke from combat in Libya. DW/AFP.

The government of Turkey has warned Libya's strongman Khalifa Haftar that his forces could be considered "legitimate targets" if they continue their attacks. DW. Turkey has backed the UN supported Government of National Accord based in Tripoli. Haftar's forces launched attacks in Tripoli which hit the airfield and came close to hitting the Turkish and Italian embassies. 

My Comment:

Turkey has deployed troops to Libya, so these threats are not empty ones. Turkey has the forces to attack Haftar's troops and it would be a major escalation to an already fragile situation. If they want to pick a fight with Haftar's government they can do so. 

This situation seems like another situation similar to Syria. The international community is making things a lot worse by making sure neither side can win the civil war there. Haftar is probably strong enough to beat the GNA, but with Turkey and other countries backing them the war will continue and more people will die. 

That being said, Haftar isn't helping his cause with indiscriminate rocket attacks. These rockets can hit things they are not targeting specifically and it will cause many civilian deaths. Launching attacks like this is bad optics and it isn't helping his cause. 

However, I think Turkey would be wise to not pick a fight with Haftar and his forces. Turkey hardly has the economy and will to fight a long war in Libya. Turkey already has a mess on it's southern border with Syria and has an insurgency with the Kurds to deal with. Turkey has also been devastated by the Coronavirus as well, so it's not like they need to pick a fight here. 

Could Turkey win though? It's unclear. They have a large and powerful army but it would be difficult for them to supply. They also have war fatigue with their population and I doubt a full scale war in Libya would help Recep Erdogan's popularity. 

My guess is that if they do anything at all it will be limited in nature. Perhaps air strikes or advisors fighting with the GNA's forces. A large scale war is probably not in the cards, and the fact that they are just issuing threats after the rocket attack instead of actually doing something is probably good evidence that we will continue with the status quo ante.