President Trump.
President Donald Trump, according to reports, wants the US military out of Afghanistan by 2020. NBC News. According to anonymous sources cited by NBC News, the descion is causing controversy in the White House. War hawks in the administration, including John Bolton and some generals, do not want a withdrawal. President Trump also reportedly wanted to pull diplomatic staff out of the embassy in Kabul due to the military being unable to protect it. In an effort to pull the troops out, diplomats are trying to negotiate with the Taliban to ensure that ISIS or al-Qaeda are confronted in Afghanistan.
My Comment:
This report from NBC should be taken with a grain of salt. After all it is quoting anonymous sources and those reports are often wrong. But I tend to believe this report as it does match what other sources have said. Still, it's always good to remain skeptical for reports that don't quote people directly.
I think it's pretty clear that President Trump wants to be done in Afghanistan. He ran on ending that war and he is very frustrated that he hasn't been able to do it. His generals have been unable to win the war, but he made a good point. Though America could win the war without too much trouble, it would cost a lot of lives and America doesn't want it.
Indeed, the only thing keeping us in Afghanistan right now is the presence of ISIS and the sunk cost fallacy. ISIS is fairly strong there and it's one of the few places left in the world where they have a major presence. Neither the Taliban or the Afghan government have been able to stop them either, despite them both being enemies of the terror group. There is always a worry that they could somehow take over the country and use it as a base to launch attacks against the rest of the world.
I think the generals also don't want to admit that we can't win the war without a huge invasion and major military force. They want to continue the failed strategy that hasn't won the war. Part of that is pride but I think a lot of it is not wanting the lives lost in Afghanistan to be for nothing. I don't think that's a good argument but I do understand it.
The problem was, our real goal in Afghanistan never should have been to totally defeat the Taliban and build a new nation. It was supposed to be the elimination of al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda has essentially been destroyed in Afghanistan, so we should have withdrew a long time ago. We don't have much reason to spend lives and treasure in Afghanistan anymore.
Politically this is a very good move for President Trump, if he can pull it off. It would be another critical campaign promise kept. It would also shore up his support among the anti-war right who have been among Trump's most shaky supporters. They were very upset with the airstrikes against the Syrian government and are very worried about Iran. Pulling troops out of Afghanistan would be a major concession to that group and secure their support in 2020.
It would also suck the air out of a major Democratic talking point. I am sure that President Trump saw the same debate I did earlier this week where many of the candidates were talking about how they would be pulling out troops in their first year. That could make a campaign promise moot and pretty much eliminate any reason to vote for an anti-war candidate.
However, nothing is that simple. Though I am no fan of Barack Obama and generally consider him incompetent at best when it comes to foreign policy, he tried to withdraw from Afghanistan as well and even campaigning on it. He was never able to make it happen and though he was a terrible commander, I think he found out how hard withdrawing from a war is. Trump has had the same frustrations and even if he wants to pull out on 2020 it might not happen...
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