Hong Kong crisis shows no signs of ending.

Protesters shine lasers in Hong Kong. Reuters.

The Hong Kong crisis has shown no sings of ending with officials saying it is the worst crisis since the handover. Reuters. The crisis erupted over an extradition law that protesters say threatened the "one country, two systems" rule. Hong Kong's leader, Carrie Lam, tabled the law but that has not calmed down the protests. Protesters are demanding full democracy and opposition to the mainland government. They also want the extradition law tabled permanently, and independent inquiry into the situation and an investigation into police brutality. China is deploying large numbers of police to counter the protesters. Millions of people have participated in the protests. 

My Comment:

It looks like China is losing control of Hong Kong. These protests have lasted much longer than anyone expected and do not appear to be stopping anytime soon. Millions of people have shown up for them and there has even been some violence and vandalism. 

As far as I can see there are only three options for China, with the easiest one seeming to be no longer viable. The first option is to simply wait out these protests. That's what France did with the Gilets Jaunes/Yellow Vests protests. They still happen but the movement eventually fell apart on its own. That seems unlikely to happen in Hong Kong though as the protesters were able to keep the momentum up for two months. China may no longer be able to wait for this crisis to pass.

Another option is to simply give the protesters what they want. Tabling the law permanently and independent investigations aren't very high cost. That might not be enough as the protesters want to get rid of Carrie Lam as well. Making her resign would probably end the crisis but it would cause a large loss of face. 

Finally, they could crack down. Doing so would be difficult but they have done so before. The Tiananmen Square protests ended after China deployed the army and killed a lot of people. Doing so would probably quell the unrest as the Hong Kong citizens have no guns to resist them, but it would be a hugely dangerous thing for China. It would cause international uproar and could even result in sanctions. Since China's economy is already being damaged by the trade war with America, sanctions could cause massive problems for them.

Of course China is absolutely terrified of civil unrest. China has a long history of civil unrest, revolution and massive amounts of death. The rulers of China know that the mandate of heaven can be taken away from them at anytime and if these protests spread to the mainland it could destroy all of them. They have the recent, bloody, Cultural Revolution in their memories and know that such a thing could happen again. 

With that in mind, I am expecting a crackdown. The repercussions would be horrible but I can't see them doing the right thing here. They cannot allow these protests to spread to the mainland and any new sanctions or international outrage will probably be a small price to pay if it means they get to keep a hold on the country. 

I also want to point out that Hong Kong is very unfortunate that they don't have any access to firearms. I have seen a few protesters with signs demanding the 2nd amendment and I don't blame them. I sympathize with them as these protesters really are at the mercy of the Chinese government. If they crack down they won't be able to do much to resist them unless the army or police forces join up with them. That's not likely to happen.