Turkish forces lay siege to the Kurdish city of Afrin in Syria.

Syrian rebels fighting with the Turks against the Kurds near Afrin. BBC/Reuters. 

Turkish forces have surrounded the Kurdish city of Afrin in Syria and have laid siege to it. BBC. Kurdish sources claim that every road out of the city is being shelled by the Turks. The attack against the Kurdish enclave in the Afrin area began on January 20th and is designed to remove the Kurdish forces from the area. The Turks claim that the Kurds are linked to the PKK terrorist organization. It is unclear what the fate of the civilians trapped in Afrin is. 

Map of control. BBC/IHS.

My Comment:

The situation in Syria is not getting much coverage in western media. Indeed, there has been very little criticism of Turkey for what they are doing in Syria. It looks like there is going to be a major humanitarian crisis in the Afrin region with a lot of civilians caught up in the crossfire between the Kurdish fighters and the Turkish military. 

I also have to say that the Turks are probably embarrassed about how long their offensive is taking. They have a modern military and aren't making a whole lot of progress in taking out the Kurds. It's been a couple of months and only now have they reached Afrin. 

Speaking of embarrassment, the Syrian government is probably facing some as well. They were making a lot of noise about sending troops to help out the Kurds but so far that has been just that. Noise. They certainly haven't done much to stop the Turks. That could change in the future but as of now it was all big talk and nothing substantial. 

So do the Kurds have much of a chance of victory here? I kinda doubt it. They are outnumbered by the Turks and don't have the modern equipment and weapons that they have. They are also fighting fairly far away from their main bases in Northern Syria and reinforcements have to travel quite a long way to even get to the front lines. Plus it's not like the Syrian rebels will let them take the direct route since they have thrown in with the Turks. They either have to travel through hostile territory or they have to go through regime controlled territory. 

I think that the Kurds will likely lose their enclave in Afrin but they will make the Turks pay for it. Already this offensive is taking longer than the Turks would like. The question is what happens after Afrin falls? I doubt that Turkey will be satisfied with clearing out Kurdish forces just from the Afrin enclave. My guess is that they will continue their attacks on the Kurds but in their Eastern territories as well. 

This is, of course, bad news for everyone. We have largely defeated ISIS but the Kurds are moving their forces around and are no longer fighting them. This will give ISIS a chance to regroup and recruit. Same with the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, al-Nusra Front. It's important to note that they are essentially working with the Turks as well.