Thursday, March 29, 2018

Trump says US forces are going to leave Syria soon.

President Donald Trump. Politico/AP.

President Donald Trump says that US troops will withdraw from Syria soon. Politico. In a speech in Ohio, Trump said that ISIS is being defeated and once they are gone the US will withdraw troops. 2000 troops are stationed in Syria helping the Syrian Kurds fight ISIS. ISIS has lost the vast majority of their forces and territory in the past year and now only control a few small towns and villages. The statement is different than what top Trump administration officials have said in the past. 

My Comment:
Interesting news from the Trump administration. I would be very happy to see US troops home from Syria. Other than defeating ISIS we don't actually have many interests in the country. ISIS was a major threat to the American homeland and they were funding and inspiring horrible terror attacks throughout the world. That threat has been greatly reduced due to our actions in Syria. 

The other goals in Syria aren't really ones that can't be accomplished through other means. Yes, we want to counter Russian and Iranian influence in the country. But we don't need troops on the ground to accomplish that. Diplomatic pressure and our already strong presence in the region can accomplish the same thing without the cost in money and lives that we incur by staying in Syria. 

My only fear is that the other massive terrorist army in Syria, al-Nusra, has not been defeated and still control a decent chunk of Syria. Though al-Nusra, an al-Qaeda affiliate, hasn't extended their attacks outside of Syria the way that ISIS did, they are still a organization that is capable of doing so. Withdrawing before they have been defeated could be a mistake. But since our current strategy seems to be "let the Russian's handle it" not much would change. 

I would say that our mission against ISIS isn't complete quite yet. ISIS still controls a few small towns and villages and are still active. Worse still, our Kurdish allies have withdrawn from the fight against them to better concentrate on the Turkish invasion. That means the fight against ISIS will likely fall to the Syrian government. 

That being said, I think that our main goal in Syria has been accomplished. ISIS is no longer much of a threat. Core ISIS hasn't pulled off a major attack in a long time and even ISIS inspired attacks have dropped off. The threat of terror attacks, chemical weapons and conventional attacks has dropped dramatically. 

There seems to be some disagreement between Trump and his advisers. Politico seems to be overplaying the differences since a lot of them were between Trump and Rex Tillerson and Tillerson is not there anymore. There does seem to be a little bit of conflict between Trump, Mattis, Bolton and Pompano, but I doubt it is anything serious. 

Why? Because Trump left a huge loophole in his withdrawal plan. He said he would pull back troops after ISIS has been defeated. Though ISIS has been greatly reduced, they aren't defeated. Doing so completely could still take a lot of time, especially considering the facts on the ground. ISIS had a lot of pressure taken off of them when the Turks invaded and many of the remaining ISIS strongholds are in places we can't easily hit. 

It may be months before ISIS is defeated to President Trump's satisfaction. He said he wants to withdraw "very soon" but there aren't any concrete plans to do so. My guess is that it won't happen right away and any conflict with his advisers is being way overblown by the media.

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