Another clash between US forces and Russian mercenaries avoided.

Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis in Kabul, Afghanistan. Reuters. 

Another major clash between US forces and Russian mercenaries has been avoided in Syria. Reuters. The US noticed a buildup of Russian mercenaries and Syrian regime troops near the city of Deir Ez Zor. This buildup matched the buildup that preceded the incident in February where a large force was destroyed by US air power. Up to 300 Russian mercenaries were killed in that incident which remains somewhat mysterious. After noticing the buildup America contacted Russian commanders on the ground which diffused the situation. 

My Comment:

Looks like we avoided another major incident in Syria. And it's clear it's because we actually talked to the Russians this time. Doing so avoided another major conflict and probably saved a lot of lives. Avoiding a potential conflict is a very good thing. 

The last incident could have resulted in a major conflict. We killed a whole lot of Russian mercenaries and their allies. For whatever reason though the Russians didn't seem to care. They never made a big deal out of the fact that we destroyed a large number of their troops. The mercenaries aren't officially Russian troops, but even the killing of a large number of Russian citizens should have caused some kind of response right?

Why didn't Russia care? Probably because it would have been bad press for the Russians. It must have been very embarrassing for them to lose so many troops in such a lopsided battle. Putin's intervention in Syria isn't very popular either and he was up for reelection. Though there was little chance of Putin not being reelected, if anything could derail it, his actions in Syria could do so. Plus it hurt the reputation of Russian fighters being slaughtered so convincingly. 

I still don't know what the point of pressuring US troops in Syria is for the Russians. Obviously the Syrian Regime wants us out and to regain control of the Kurdish controlled areas, but the Russians don't get much out of that. They are also allied to the Kurds and gain little by creating a conflict with America. 

My guess is that these attacks and buildups were not really the fault of the Russians but the regime in Syria. They likely hired the mercenaries and ordered them to try and take back some territory from the Kurds. Syria is in the clean up phase of the war, or at least they would be if it wasn't for all the foreign governments in the country. So they decided to launch a strike to encourage one of those governments to leave and used Russian mercenaries to do so. That way they had plausible deniability. It obviously didn't work out for them and they wasted a bunch of troops that could have better been used fighting ISIS or other rebels.  

I think the first massive response against the mercenaries made it very easy for them to back down again after we contacted the Russians. The Russians didn't want to be embarrassed again and understand that there isn't much they could do to win against US forces in Syria. My guess is that if there are any other buildups in Syria they will be handled very quickly, just like it is in this case.