Has the tide turned in Afghanistan?

Soldiers on patrol in Afghanistan. The Hill/Getty.

Army Gen. John Nicholson, the top US general in Afghanistan has said we have turned the corner in the fight against the Taliban. The Hill. He touts a change in leadership and additional international participation in the war against terrorism. In addition he says that the raids targeting Taliban opium production is working and has already cost the group between $7 and $10 million in revenues. 3000 more troops will be sent to Afghanistan, including 1000 combat advisers. Such claims have been made in the past 16 years. 

My Comment:

I am not as optimistic as General John Nicholson. We have been at war with the Taliban since 9/11 and we haven't won yet. They have been very tough to defeat and have proven to be very resistant and strong. I don't see what changes that, at least in the short term. 

And the general consensus is that we are losing in Afghanistan. The Taliban have taken back much of the territory they have lost over the past 16 years. They have also inflicted unsustainable casualties on the government troops in Afghanistan. If something doesn't change it's very possible that the Afghan government could fall and 16 years of war could have been all for nothing. 

The Taliban have also been helped by the rise of ISIS in Afghanistan. Though ISIS and the Taliban have fought each other as well, most ISIS terror attacks have been directed at the Afghan government. Those attacks have killed hundreds of people and greatly weakened the Afghan government. 

The Afghan government could barely handle a war against the Taliban, let alone a 2nd war with ISIS. Until now ISIS has been our major priority as well. We have been targeting them extensively but they still exist. And now that ISIS has been largely defeated in Syria and Iraq, Afghanistan may be their new base of operations. Despite our attacks against them, they aren't going away and will allow the Taliban to become stronger by weakening the Afghan government. 

So is there any reason to hope at all? I think there might be. The new strategy of targeting the Taliban's economy is very smart. It helped to destroy ISIS in Syria and Iraq by targeting their oil fields. Doing the same in Afghanistan with the Taliban's opium production might cripple them. Costing them a huge amount of money will weaken them and could change the outcome of the war. 

Still, it's a tall ask to defeat the Taliban economically. Afghanistan is a tribal country and right now the Taliban have quite a bit of tribal loyalty. Money buys some of it, but you have to wonder if that money is cut off that the tribes will automatically support the Afghan government instead. The fighters are tough and motivated as well, though nobody wants to fight for free.

At the very least it seems as though we are finally taking the war against the Taliban seriously. We never really tried to defeat them. In the first phase of the war we were more focused on getting al-Qaeda instead of them, and once Iraq happened it was always the major focus. More recently we have focused on ISIS and other terror groups. Perhaps now that we are targeting the Taliban directly we will actually accomplish something. I'm not hopeful, but I do think this change of course might at least preserve the status quo if nothing else. We were headed to total defeat in Afghanistan and right now even a stalemate will be an improvement...