Department of Homeland Security issues bulletin detailing the threat from drones.

A quadcopter civilian drone. Kenneth Freeman

The Department of Homeland Security has issued a bulletin detailing the threat from civilian drones being used in terrorist attacks. ABC News. There has been greater interest in civilian drones for use in terrorist activities. Overseas, in Iraq and Syria, terror groups like ISIS have adapted drones as a battlefield weapon and DHS officials worry that they may attempt to use the tactics here. The report also detailed continuing threats to aviation and terror groups interests in chemical or toxic weapons. 

My Comment:
The DHS notice can be found here.

The threat of drones is nothing new. We have watched for awhile as ISIS has adapted to using small quadcopters and other drones as weapons of war. They have been somewhat effective for them, but not enough to turn the tide of battle. But they have made an impact on the battlefield and are a good terror weapon.

So how has ISIS been using drones? Mostly as a way to drop small bombs and grenades. The drones are fairly quiet during an active battle so defending soldiers don't notice them. They drones fly above and drop the grenades with decent accuracy.

Any terrorist could potentially use drones the same way. The main problem would be getting grenades or other explosives. Unlike Sweden, grenades are basically unobtainable in the United States. Other explosives are, but it would take quite a bit of expertise to rig up a drop rig like the ISIS drones had in Iraq and Syria.

I think a much more likely use would be to use the drones as a vehicle borne improvised explosive devices. Though the payload would obviously have to be small for all but the largest of drones, an explosive could be attached to a drone. Doing so would eliminate the need for a drop rig that you would need with the current ISIS strategy, with the obvious downside of not being able to use the drone again. This seems unlikely for a traditional terror attack but could be used in assassination or as a distraction as part of a larger attack.

I also think that drones could be useful in an arson attack. We kind of saw that already with 4chan's harassment/trolling campaign against Shia LaBeouf. The short version of that is that Shia LaBeouf has an anti-Trump campaign where he flies a flag that says "He will not divide us" and 4chan keeps trying to capture it. When the flag was moved to France a quadcopter was filmed attacking the flag and attempting to set it on fire.

(As an aside, I highly recommend reading about the HWNDU campaign. It's just insane)

Though that attack failed, and was hilarious, it just goes to show how easy it would be to start a fire with a drone. All you would need is a simple rigging and a fuel source as a target and you could start a major fire from a safe distance. You would probably lose the drone in the process, but that's not a major concern. 

We also have to consider that the most obvious use of a drone would be the same that we use them for every day. Surveillance. Terrorists could use drones to spy on police or military as they respond to their attacks. They could also use them as a way to gather intelligence against future targets. Finally, they could make propaganda videos with the footage of a terrorist attacks. ISIS has attempted to do this during terror attacks but has failed to pull it off yet. I think that it is likely only a matter of time before a terrorist does use a drone this way. 

Finally, we also have to realize that drones are a major threat to air travel. Even now, civilian drones have almost caused major air accidents. Though a small drone probably wouldn't do much more than a similarly sized bird if they collided, that still might be enough to destroy an airplane. A much larger drone or one armed with explosives would be a much bigger threat against a plane. Presumably the drones would target planes at their most vulnerable and where they have the least chance of recovery, while taking off and landing.

I do think that the ABC video I posted was pretty silly. They played up the threat of someone using a handgun attached to a drone, but that seems very unlikely. Obviously accuracy would be all but impossible and there would be no way to reload. The only way you could hit people is if they were densely crowded and at that point you would still be better off shooting the gun yourself. I don't see this as a serious threat for anyone without military level of technology and expertise.

So what can be done about drones? I am not sure. I am thinking that there will eventually be some kind of regulation preventing people from casually buying them and flying them. My guess is that there will be the same kind of background checks in place like the ones for guns and explosives. That is a sad state of affairs but it would only take one drone to cause some very serious problems.