Senator Lindsey Graham says war with North Korea is possible if things don't change...

Senator Lindsey Graham. Politico/AP.

In the wake of yet another ballistic missile test, Lindsey Graham claims that war with North Korea is possible if things don't change. Politico. Graham says that every nuclear test brings North Korea closer to war and that President Trump won't tolerate much more. Graham says that he hopes Kim Jong Un will back down but if he doesn't and there is war it will be his fault. The United States is unlikely to allow North Korea to have a nuclear missile capable of hitting the United States. South Korea launched missiles of their own to remind the North that they are capable of response as well.

My Comment:

Lindsey Graham is one of the biggest warmongers in the Senate and he hasn't met a war he doesn't like. The man seemed like he wanted to go to war with Russia for crying out loud, so it's no surprise that he wants war with North Korea. He just wants to fight for some reason. 

So should we listen to Graham? Is war more likely? I am not sure. I do know that the relationship between Graham and Trump has been repaired. They used to be bitter rivals during the presidential campaign but recently they have both made overtures to each other. The might not be friends but they are at least civil to each other now. 

Part of this is that Trump has been fairly aggressive with North Korea. He hasn't gone as far as Graham would have gone, we would be at war with North Korea if he was in charge, but he hasn't ruled out war with North Korea. That will make Graham happy. 

But is war likely? I still maintain that war probably won't happen. We have had much worse crises with North Korea before and we have always avoided war. They have had skirmishes, terror attacks, assassinations and even sinking of ships but diplomacy has always succeeded. I doubt that these missile launches will be enough to start one now. 

There is a difference now though because North Korea could potentially send a nuclear weapon our way. That hasn't really been true before since they didn't have the missile technology to hit the United States. Still, it's not like their nukes weren't a threat before now. They always had the potential to hit South Korea and if they used unconventional tactics they could have hit the United States as well. I don't think that much has changed. 

I still think diplomacy is the name of the game and Trump's Asia trip was a big part of it. He was able to improve relations with local powers including South Korea, Japan and, most importantly, China. These countries will put a lot of pressure on North Korea and I am guessing they are starting to worry. 

I generally think that these tests and threats from North Korea are a sign of weakness, not strength. They are feeling the pinch from all the sanctions and have to understand that their only ally in the region just let out the red carpet for Donald Trump. They see the writing on the wall and realize that they are probably screwed. These tests are just a last ditch effort to get the United States to back down. And they know it won't work. 

My guess is that North Korea will probably back down. They don't have much of a choice. These statements from people like Graham and Trump show that they may face even tougher consequences if they don't. Kim Jong Un is a loser and a jerk, but I don't see him as someone that wants to die. If he doesn't back down he probably will. 

I do have to say that our previous president did a lot to encourage Kim's behavior. Ignoring all the times he backed down to North Korea alone, he also showed what could happen if a regime gave up its weapons. Muammar Gaddafi famously gave up Libya's WMD's programs but it didn't save him from an US led intervention. Seeing Gaddafi get raped to death by rebels will likely give Kim Jong Un pause for giving up his nuclear weapons. Obama and Clinton will have a lot to answer for if a war comes with North Korea...