Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Initial reactions to Super Tuesday.

I've got a few initial reactions to Super Tuesday. Right now it looks like Donald Trump is going to win 8 out 11 contests and Hillary Clinton is going to win 7 out of 11. It's way too early to call some of those races, so don't be surprised if those state numbers change by tomorrow morning. I wouldn't be too surprised if the total ends up being 9 states for Hillary Clinton.

Here's a few things we learned tonight:

1. Donald Trump is the presumptive nominee. He won 8 states outright and did well enough in Texas to get a few delegates as well. He's got the delegate lead and is winning in opinion polls.

2. Ted Cruz did better then expected. Everyone expected him to take Texas but winning in Oklahoma was a major surprise. Trump had a decent lead on Cruz in the state for quite some time, so I have no idea what happened there. It's not unprecedented that he could win Oklahoma, but I am wondering if there wasn't some more Ted Cruz shenanigans, like he pulled off in Iowa and South Carolina. Either way, he's probably the only candidate that is a threat to Donald Trump.

3. Marco Rubio did horrible. He might still win in Minnesota, but that's about the only place where he was successful. He did ok in some states but it was shocking to me that he came in third against John Kasich in New England states like Vermont and Massachusetts. My guess is that the New England voters that weren't into Donald Trump were not impressed with Marco Rubio's "pee pee poo poo" criticism of Donald Trump. People liked Marco Rubio for his policy positions and the fact that he wasn't getting down in the dirt with anyone else. Once he did, the voters in New England went to the only "nice guy" left in the race that isn't Ben Carson.

4. Nobody is likely to drop out on the Republican side. Trump's the clear front runner and unless something crazy happens he will be the candidate. Cruz obviously will stick with it for awhile after winning two more states, and Rubio did just enough to try and stick it out until Florida. Kasich will hold on until Ohio, and Carson just seems to want to stay in forever. Carson has no reason to stay in the race at this point, but he has given no indication that he is going to drop out. This probably helps Donald Trump more then anyone else since the anti-Trump voters can't coalesce around any one candidate.

5. Bernie Sanders is essentially done. Yes, he won a couple of states but it seems very unlikely that he can win the nomination. He just does not have any support from African Americans. He lost in states that had a large amount of black people and won where there aren't as many. For whatever reason, blacks don't like Bernie Sanders. Given how important they are in southern states, I just can't see Sanders closing the gap, especially with super delegate not backing him.

6. The media's attacks on Donald Trump fell flat. Nobody is buying the whole "David Duke KKK" scandal. People weren't going to be convinced that he is racist just because he failed to denounce the guy even though he did it multiple times both before and after the incident happened. And it's not like Donald Trump's base cares what the media thinks anyway. A major reason people like Donald Trump is because they hate the news media.

7. I'm convinced that the election is going to be between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton... Bring it on!

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