ISIS troops retreat in central and southwestern Iraq, abandoning several towns and cities.

Iraqi troops on the front lines in Anbar Province. AFP.

ISIS troops have retreated in central and southern Iraq, largely abandoning the cities of Hit, Rutba and Kubasya. AFP. The vast majority of ISIS fighters have pulled out from the cities, all of which are located west of Baghdad. Hit and Kubasya are in the central part of the country while Rutba is an desert outpost near the Jordanian border. Iraqi and US aircraft are attempting to destroy the troops as they leave and may have succeeded in killing a local commander. Thousands of civilians met with Iraqi security forces as ISIS left the area, while others smoked for the first time since ISIS took over. Women were allowed to forgo the naqab covering and wear normal clothing as well. It is unclear if there are any ISIS fighters left in any of these towns and cities, but there are reports of ISIS booby-trapping the area. 

My Comment:

You would think that this would be major news but so far it hasn't gotten much attention. The US media has other things on their mind besides Iraq right now, so this story has gotten buried. After all, the US presidential race is insane right now, so what is happening in Iraq is a low priority, even for me. It shouldn't be though, at least in this case. This is a major victory in the fight against ISIS, and one that came at little cost to Iraq.  

ISIS has essentially given up central and southwestern Iraq. They still have troops in Fallujah but if this report is accurate then there is hardly any territory that ISIS controls in central Iraq. They have been pushed out of Ramadi and Tikrit, and never succeeded in taking Haditha. And Fallujah is almost completely cut off from the outside world. This is a huge blow to ISIS and it means that Iraqi security forces have taken back most of the territory that ISIS took the last couple of years. What little remains in ISIS hands, the city of Fallujah, is cut off and under siege. 

It's easy to understand why ISIS pulled out. These towns and cities were largely isolated from the rest of ISIS's forces. Hit and Kubasya were especially vulnerable since Iraqi security forces were starting to surround the cities.  ISIS saw that and were probably thinking about Fallujah and Ramadi. In both cities Iraqi security forces were able to surround the cities, cutting them off from outside help. Ramadi fell with heavy ISIS casualties and Fallujah will fall eventually as well, with very few people from ISIS making it out alive. The same thing was likely to happen in Hit, with similar results. 

With the threat of being surrounded, ISIS did the sensible thing and withdrew. ISIS is in a much weaker position now, due to US and Russian airstrikes in Iraq and Syria. The cease fire in Syria has also allowed most factions to stop fighting each other and concentrate on fighting ISIS instead. And the Iraqi forces have gotten quite a bit of their confidence back after taking back the city of Ramadi. All of these factors have caused an increase in casualties for ISIS and is starting to break their resolve. In short, ISIS is under severe pressure and can't afford to waste troops in a part of Iraq that isn't crucial to their plans. 

There was a time where central Iraq was crucial to ISIS. After all, it wasn't that long ago that ISIS was threatening Baghdad itself. Hit would have been one of the headquarters of this attack, and a crucial supply point. But ISIS's assault faltered after it took Ramadi, and with it's loss and the siege of Fallujah not likely to be broken anytime soon, those plans have been put on hold. Perhaps forever. Unless the Iraqi army collapses, yet again, it's unlikely that ISIS has a realistic chance to threaten Baghdad directly. They can still send in major terrorist attacks, and they have indeed been doing so, but there is basically no chance of them taking the city now unless something huge changes. 

As it stands right now, Hit and the other cities were only really useful for their tax base, and for the occasional local recruit. Someone decided that the benefits associated with holding these cities did not outweigh the risk of them being cut off and losing a large amount of troops and equipment. It's not surprising at all that they pulled out, but in doing so, ISIS is basically admitting that they couldn't hold onto what they had taken. 

With central Iraq in government hands, I wonder if this won't speed up the timetable for attacking Mosul, the de-facto capital of ISIS in Iraq. Iraq's southern flank is now largely protected and there is little chance of ISIS launching a successful attack near the capital without these cities. That should free up more troops to fight near Mosul after these cities and towns are fully secure. On the other hand ISIS probably left a few die hard fighters behind and booby trapped the cities as well, so the effect might be just the opposite. Looking at how Ramadi turned out, Iraqi security forces tend to move extremely slowly while rooting out the remnants. That could tie down a large number of troops, troops that would otherwise be fighting to take back Mosul.

ISIS seems to be having a tough time in both Iraq and Syria. Which is why it is so concerning that they seem to be advancing in Libya. Indeed, Libya seems to be the new hotspot were most African Jihadists are traveling too. If Mosul and Raqqa were to fall, ISIS has a perfect place to retreat too. The good news is that the possibility of them having to flee from Iraq and Syria seems a lot more likely then it did even a few months ago...