The 12th and possibly final GOP debate is on tonight at 8:00 PM central time on CNN. I plan on watching as much of it as possible, though I will probably miss at least a few minutes at the end. As always, I will be live tweeting the debate as it happens and you can follow my tweets here. As always, don't expect a reaction posted right after the debate. I will definitely post one sometime Friday morning unless something crazy happens.
I'm not sure how this one is going to turn out. All I know is that I am getting tired of these debates and I am happy that there is only one more left after this one. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy watching them and writing them on an entertainment level, but I think that the GOP is making a huge mistake in dragging this thing out. At this point the party needs to unite under one candidate so they can start hitting the Democrats as hard as possible.
I'm convinced that Donald Trump is going to be the candidate this November. I am also convinced that he will most likely win the nomination outright. There is a small chanced that a brokered convention could happen, but I would not put money on it. Even if there is a chance of that happening, I would hope that the Republicans would come to their senses and not try to pull an 11th hour candidate switcheroo. That could destroy the party and could even lead to violence or at the very least unrest.
Sure, there is a chance that Ted Cruz could mount a come from behind victory. But I don't see it happening and if it becomes clear after next Tuesday that Rubio, Kasich and Cruz are finished, they need to drop out of the race and support Donald Trump. The people in the Republican Party who think that Trump is so bad that a Hillary Clinton presidency is preferable are, quite frankly, wrong. Even if Trump is a terrible candidate, and ends up running the country into the ground after being elected, it would be preferable to 4 years of Hillary Clinton. Almost anything, short of nuclear annihilation, would be...
I think we will see this reflected in this debate. Donald Trump has already started to pivot to the center. In the last debate he showed his centrist and deal-making credentials. He's going to appeal to the general election crowd and not just to primary voters. I also expect him to hit Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders a bit more then he has in previous debates. This is Donald Trump, so he will probably respond to any attacks that are thrown his way, but I think that he will mostly try to stick to the issues. I do think that if he hits anyone, it might be John Kasich. Kasich has gotten a free pass from everyone to this point, other then a few early attacks from Trump and Jeb Bush, so I wouldn't be surprised if Trump decides to take him on.
As for the other candidates, it's pretty much do or die for all of them. Both Kasich and Rubio are coming off of large defeats. Kasich was supposed to win Michigan and ended in third place while Rubio got zero delegates in the four races on Tuesday and has to date only won Minnesota and Puerto Rico. They both need to win their home states, so I am guessing that they will almost exclusively pander to the home town crowd. It might work for Kasich, because the Ohio race is very close, but Rubio is likely finished, unless the polls are completely wrong.
I do expect Rubio to be better behaved during this debate. He basically admitted that his plan to out-Trump Donald Trump has failed. I would say that those attacks, along with poor debate performance where he kept repeating himself, essentially ended his campaign. Trump's detractors hate him because he is crude. Emulating that was not the way to go, if Rubio wanted their support. He will probably still attack Trump, he pretty much has too, but don't expect any stupid comments about Trump's appearance or physical attributes.
Ted Cruz is a wild card though. I do expect him to hit Trump, but I am guessing it will be the same old attacks he has been leveling against him since the "bromance" ended, and the same ones leveled at Trump by Jeb Bush since the start. Those attacks about Trump's "conservative" record have failed so far, and I don't expect them to help now. I do think that Cruz may be more aggressive against Rubio and Kasich. Cruz has reasons to avoid a brokered convention as well, no way the establishment picks him when Mitt Romney, John Kasich and Marco Rubio are all avalible, so he wants those two out of the race so he can better fight Donald Trump. I fully expect him to call for Rubio and Kasich to drop out of the race if they fail to capture their home states.
I am hoping that this will be the last time that the Republicans hit each other in this election season. In a perfect world, on April 5th, when my state finally votes, I will be able to stay home because the Republican candidate will be decided while the Democrats would be still fighting it out. I do think that their race is a lot more up in the air then anyone seems to admit, and I honestly don't know who I want to win. I think Bernie Sanders would be a better president then Hillary Clinton (which is damning by faint praise) but I think Clinton would be much easier for Trump (or Ted Cruz) to beat.
Either way though, I am hoping for clarity as soon as possible. Perhaps we shall get some tonight. If not, there is always next Tuesday's primary election. I think if Donald Trump manages a clean sweep, which looks at least possible, the primaries will be basically over...
No comments:
Post a Comment