The candidates at the debate. CNN/Getty.
The 12th Republican debate was last night and it was worlds apart then the last couple of ones. It was a remarkable turn around after the last one on Fox News, which I went on the record as saying was disgusting. This one was better on almost every count. There was very little in the way of juvenile attacks and everyone took this one a lot more seriously then they have in the past. Indeed, the whole atmosphere seemed more professional.
I do have to note that I had to miss some of this debate yet again. I really wish that they would schedule these things either a little bit earlier or on different days of the week. Thursday nights aren't great for me and I am lucky that I was able to watch as much as I did. I ended up missing the last 20 minutes or so, including the closing statements. I did read what happened afterwards, but I do like to disclose the fact that I don't have a full picture of the debate.
I don't think I will have as much to say on this debate compared to previous ones. There just wasn't a whole lot of attacking going on and the candidates almost exclusively argued about policy. Much of that is policy that is beyond my area of expertise. I can't really tell you who has a better plan on education since I know and care little about the issue, and that goes to other policy areas as well. Some of the debate was focused on foreign policy, immigration and trade, but the rest I won't have much of an opinion on.
I think CNN did a very good job moderating this debate. Yes, the candidates helped, but I think Jake Tapper did a good job in controlling the candidates. The questions were of less value, but at this point there is little to ask of the four men on stage that hasn't been asked before. And I don't think that anyone really tried to screw over any of the candidates. Even Hugh Hewitt, who had gotten into it with Donald Trump before was better behaved and more fair.
The big winner seems to be the Republican Party. As opposed to the last debate, all of the candidates probably looked far more presidential then they did the last time around. The fighting that did happen was not about personalities, but about policy. And, more importantly, the Democrats got hit quite a bit. Instead of an all out deathmatch, this debate seemed to be... well... an actual debate. It takes some of the sting out of the past debates for the Republican Party.
As always I am going to go through each candidate and how I think they did. You should know the drill by now! I do have to say that all the candidates did a good job, and I don't think any of them won outright. But I do think this debate probably helps the front-runner more then anyone else...
Donald Trump:
I think this was a good night for Trump. He handled most questions well and he seemed a lot more presidential then he has in the past. There were not attacks on the other candidates, at least not any crude ones. He didn't call Rubio "Little Marco" and Cruz, "Lying Ted", and he generally acted civil. At one point even Donald Trump noted how much calmer this debate was.
I think this works to Trump's advantage. We saw a more reasonable Trump last night and he seemed like he really wanted to make amends with the Republican Party. By refraining from attacking the other candidates, he made it look like he is already looking ahead to fighting Hillary Clinton.
Trump also had a surprise endorsement to announce during the debate. Dr. Ben Carson officially announced this morning that he was going to support Trump during the rest of the campaign. Though people were largely aware of this before the debate happen, it was still a surprise that it came up. Carson was at one point the front runner and having his support will help Donald Trump, and help counter Ted Cruz's most recent endorsement from Carly Fiorina. (as an aside, I like Ben Carson a lot more then I like Carly Fiorina, so his endorsement means a bit more to me then Fiorina's).
On policy, Trump was more of a mixed bag. I think his answers on education, tariffs and trade will be popular. And he was very wise to not back down on his comments on Islam. I did find it a bit worrisome that he seemed to be endorsing sending 30,000 troops to fight ISIS. Trump's main foreign policy appeal is that he is more of a dove then other candidates, so this came as a bit of a shock to me. Still, it was in the context of what he thinks the generals will recommend, so it's not like a descion has been made. Trump has also in the past said that we should work with other countries to defeat ISIS, so perhaps I am reading too much into it.
One thing that came up multiple times last night was the amount of violence that has been happening at Trump rallies. A Black Lives Matter protester got "sucker punched" at an event (by a 78 year old no less) and there are reports that a Breitbart reporter got roughed up at a rally as well.
This guy's an asshole
I think that it was good that Donald Trump disavowed that man who attacked the BLM supporter. Though I think that Black Lives Matter is a stupid movement and their supporters are no angels, it's not right for anyone to hit someone that is defenseless. I don't buy the argument that Donald Trump is invoking these kinds of things though. Largely because protesters tend to get attacked no matter what. Protesters are annoying. Really annoying. BLM is especially so. Some people respond to annoyance with violence. That doesn't make it right, but if BLM was targeting other candidates as hard as they are targeting Trump they would have been attacked eventually anyways.
All that being said, I think that Trump did a good job. He needed to show people that he is capable of being presidential and I think he did that well. He also made the case that he could unite the Republican Party and did his best to reassure them that he was the guy to defeat Hillary Clinton.
Ted Cruz:
A decent night for Ted Cruz. He kept it low key and presidential. He only got into it with Trump on a few occasions, but I don't think he did any damage. He keeps repeating the same old line about Trump being a phony conservative and I just don't see those attacks getting any traction. Same with his attack on Donald Trump not being pro-Israel enough. I don't think the American people care all that much about Israel and may hope that having a less zealous guy in charge could help bring peace there.
On policy, I think Cruz did ok. I liked what he had to say about the rules of engagement. Our military really does fight with their hands tied behind their back. Reducing civilian casualties is a worthy goal, but not if it puts our own soldiers lives on the line.
I also liked how Ted Cruz spent more time attacking Barack Obama then he did attacking the other candidates. Even if he dislikes Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, it's better to hit the Democrats then hit each other. My only wish is that he had spent more time hitting Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders as well.
Ted Cruz's best moment is when he pointed out, along with Trump, that they are the only two candidates that have a chance of winning the election without any brokered convention shenanigans. Cruz didn't go so far as to demand that Rubio and Kasich drop out but he certainly implied it. At this point, I think that would probably be the best thing for the party and the country.
Generally, I think this was a good night for Cruz, but it probably won't be enough. Nobody did any real, lasting damage to Donald Trump, and Cruz needed that to happen. Rubio and Kasich also had decent nights, which hurts Cruz's chances next Tuesday. Through no fault of his own, I think that Cruz is in a tough spot.
John Kasich:
I have an interesting relationship with John Kasich. When he is the nicest guy in the room and everyone else is attacking each other, I kind of like him. In the last few debates he was the only one that focused on policy at all, and he never stooped to attacking anyone. That had a bit of charm when everyone else seemed interested in fighting each other instead of convincing anyone to vote for them or not vote for the Democrats.
But when the discussion turns to policy, I remember why I don't like him. Kasich is a neo-con when it comes to foreign policy. I hated pretty much every word that came out of his mouth on the subject, and most of the time I was rather angry at what he was saying. No we don't need to arm the Ukrainians. They have Nazis in their ranks and we have no reason to fight Russia. We also have no reason to overthrow Assad in Syria or set up a no fly zone. Worst of all, Kasich had the gall to defend Turkey of all countries. If you want to see how I feel about that country, look at the Turkey tag listed to the right. Spoiler alert: I hate Turkey, and I don't want to vote for anyone that calls them a "good ally". They should be kicked out of NATO and prevented from joining the EU. I think this reminder of what Kasich actually stands for pushed him back down on my personal rankings. He's behind Ted Cruz right now, and only barely ahead of Marco Rubio.
Kasich was also hurt by the fact that he wasn't the only reasonable guy in the room last night. Good guy Kasich is only appealing when there aren't three other candidates trying to be good guys as well. With that advantage gone, Kasich better hope that voters remember the last couple of debates where everyone acted foolish because if they don't then they will vote on policy. And I think that Trump and Cruz have him beat there. Nobody wants another war over stupid things and NOBODY in the Republican party wants amnesty for illegals.
Marco Rubio:
Total turn around for Rubio. If he had turned back into the policy wonk Rubio that he had before he turned on Donald Trump, he might have had more success the last couple of weeks. Rubio was smart, had good answers and never stooped to the level that he did in past debates. Rubio was clearly shaken by the fact that his attacks on Trump did nothing to hurt him. And I think they hurt Rubio pretty badly. His main appeal was the fact that he wasn't getting into the gutter and stuck to policy. Getting into the gutter turned off his conservative supporters and I think many of them probably went to Kasich. It pretty much cost him the election, so it was wise of Rubio to change course.
He also had a couple of good answers on policy. Rubio had a good answer on H1B visas and I was especially moved when he joined Donald Trump in praising law enforcement. I have a lot of friends who are cops and I do think that they get treated unfairly. Rubio is smart to bring that up because there are a lot of people that still like cops and he has to know that even cops vote too. I also think that his remarks on Cuba will probably help him in Florida, known for it's large Cuban population.
Still, all of this is too little to late. Rubio has no real path to the presidency other then a brokered convention. And even if he makes it to that, there is no guarantee that they will pick him over Trump, Cruz, Kasich or even Mitt Romney. Nice guy Rubio should have never given way to Trump Jr. Rubio. If it hadn't he might have had a chance, but at this point his window has closed.
Conclusions:
I know this post is a bit shorter then my reactions to other debates, but I was hamstrung by the focus on policy. Some of the issues are beyond my areas of expertise and I just don't have an opinion on them. There was also very little to be upset by in this debate, and outrage always fuels writing.
Still, I think this will be the last major debate this primary season. I am guessing that both Florida and Ohio will be won by Donald Trump and Rubio and Kasich will have no choice but to drop out. Rubio especially has no chance at this point. I guess there could be a one on one debate against Trump and Cruz, but even that seems unlikely. I think that Trump will probably have the delegates he needs on Tuesday to convince even Ted Cruz to drop out. They are winner take all and right now, Trump is projected to win just about everything. Only Ohio looks close and I just don't see Kasich winning. Cruz and Rubio will siphon enough off from him to cost him the state.
If this is the last GOP debate, I have to say that I had a lot of fun with this. I enjoyed watching almost all of them and I am happy that people are reading what I have to say. I hope that when the actual presidential debates happen, I can continue to write them up and that you continue reading them! Until then, it's on to other things!
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