Tuesday, March 8, 2016

A quick post about Super Tuesday #2.

No time for a full post but here's a few reactions to tonight's election results. As of right now, Idaho and Hawaii have not been called. And the race between the Democrats in Michigan is too close to call. What I do know is that Hillary Clinton completely wrecked Bernie Sanders in Mississippi and Donald Trump won both Mississippi and Michigan. Here's my thoughts:

1. Bernie Sanders cannot win states in the south. He just does not seem to resonate with black voters. Mississippi has a very large population blacks and Sanders lost there with less then 20% of the vote (as of this writing). Even if he does end up taking Michigan, he is still losing when it comes to minorities. This does not bode well to his chances in the primaries and really does not bode well for Sanders's chances in the general election. If black people stay home, and Sanders is the candidate, he won't win.

2. Donald Trump did well tonight. He won well in both Mississippi and Michigan. He had a double digit lead in both states. More importantly, he hurt the chances of Ted Cruz and John Kasich surviving. Cruz needed to prove that he could win in the south and Kasich needed to win a state to keep any momentum going into Ohio. Neither of those things could happen. Trump could still lose Idaho and Hawaii, but neither of those states had anywhere near the number of delegates that Michigan or Mississippi had.

3. Marco Rubio is pretty much done. He came in 4th place in both Mississippi and Michigan, and wasn't even close to being able to capture any delegates. He did win Puerto Rico this weekend, but that isn't going to save him. I guess he could still win in Hawaii, but that's not going to be enough. His path to the candidacy is pretty much completely gone. His only chance of surviving is a brokered convention, and even then, I am guessing the establishment would go with someone like John Kasich or Mitt Romney. His political career is likely over.

4. Ted Cruz was fairly quiet. I think he may win Idaho, but other then that he didn't do well. He did get around 36% of the vote in Mississippi, but Trump got almost 50%. In Michigan he came in third. That's not the kind of results the "establishment" candidate should be getting. I just don't see Ted Cruz winning anything further.

I do think that tonight is further proof that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are going to be the next presidential candidates. At this point it seems largely useless to drag this thing out any further. Unless one of those candidates completely collapses they will probably be fighting each other in November. I don't see Donald Trump failing but I could see Hillary Clinton dropping out if she ends up getting arrested...

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