Russia has cleared their new anti-aircraft missiles for export, but isn't saying who is buying them. Business Insider.

A 9K38 Verba MANPADS. Business Insider. 

Russia has cleared their latest surface to air missile for export, but they are not revealing who the customers are. Business Insider. The 9K38 Verba is a man portable a defense system (MANPADS) designed to shoot down airplanes. The Verba may very well be the most advanced and deadly MANPADS ever developed. The targeting for the warhead has three different optical seekers on the ultraviolet, infrared and near infrared spectrum, which greatly increases the missiles targeting and accuracy. The system constantly switches between the three modes which makes countermeasures much less effective. With such an effective weapon system their is concern about who the Russians are selling to. If the weapons would fall into the wrong hands they would make an excellent terrorist weapon, and would effectively counter low flying aircraft and drones, with little in the way of training. 

My Comment:

It's important not to understate how dangerous these weapons are. MANPADS are the terrorists dream weapon to take down commercial airplanes. They are fairly idiot proof as well. I'm confident that I could probably use one of these weapons with very little in the way of training. All you need to do is figure out how to activate it, aim at your target and figure out to shoot. That's true for most less complicated weapons systems, but most weapon systems don't let you shoot down a plane.

And the threat is huge. All you need is a launcher and a good location to target and someone willing to shoot and you can take out an airliner. Though a large airplane might be able to survive a hit from a shoulder launched missile, I wouldn't want to be on that plane if it happened. A smaller plane would probably stand no chance, especially considering a civilian pilot would not be expecting an attack. 

The Verba could be a game changer in warfare as well. These missiles can't reach high flying jets and drones, and probably can't defeat stealth, but any ground support craft, attack or transport helicopters or low flying drones could be vulnerable. That's true for any MANPADS system, but the fact that the 9K38's are resistant to countermeasures might be a game changer. We depend on flares and chaff to protect our planes, and it seems like this system can cut through that. This is a huge threat to U.S. military doctrine because we are dependent on close air support and helicopter support for our combat operations. These missiles aren't a "hard counter" by any means, but they are a major threat to U.S. forces. 

Which is why it is important to know where these MANPADS are going. Russia isn't saying, but someone has to be buying these missiles. My hope is that they are selling them to stable countries with little terrorist activity. Then there is almost no chance of proliferation.  

But what if they decide to sell to Iran? And then Iran gives these missiles to the Houthi rebels in Yemen? Or what if they decide to give them to the Syrian regime? Or what if one of the more stable countries they sell too suddenly becomes unstable? Then you have the perfect terrorist weapon just waiting for someone bad to pick them up.

Of course MANPADS are nothing new, this is just the new and improved version. How come we haven't seen a terrorist attack using them recently? For one thing, controlling MANPADS is a major goal for the various intelligence agencies. Indeed, there has been more then a little speculation that the U.S. Consulate at Benghazi had a CIA outpost there which had the mission of tracking down these weapons. That operation was probably disrupted by the attack there, but I doubt the efforts to clamp down on these weapons has ended. 

It's clear that MANPADS have fallen into the wrong hands already. Al-Nusra and ISIS have both been spotted firing the weapons. Why haven't they used them for terrorism? Because they need them for air defense. Air power is devastating and the psychological impact of being able to fight back alone makes them worthwhile. As devastating as a MANPADS terrorist attack would be, it doesn't outweigh the morale boost you get from shooting down an enemy helicopter. 

Still, I'd feel a bit better about things if I knew where these Verbas were heading too. I'm hoping that Russia is smart enough to only sell it to people who aren't likely to lose them to terrorist organizations. If they aren't then the threat MANPADS present will be even larger.